Boghies Account Talk

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Well,

'Dumb Money Hour' is over for today. Future(s) Dip Buyers might very well look like Dips. I am moving to my safest normal alloction - with a few adjustments:

G: 20% - I hate doing this
F: 0% - Flight to safety is not safe
C: 40% - It weathered yesterday rather well
S: 15% - It had the best momentum
I: 25% - Not American, plus undervalued and their bank is raising interest rates.

Expected Annual Return: 6%
Expected Annual Risk: 8%

A fairly similar holding in 2008 would have lost around 25% in a buy and hold.

Normally, this allocation would be 14% G, 22% F, 39% C, 15% S, 12% I. The normal weak market allocation has the same expected risk and return. However, I really don't like the 'F Fund' with all the big wig smart money bailing from it (and in fact, shorting it). And, I want a bit more potential for growth outside of the United States. Those 'I Fund' holdings may be moved around. I think I will hold the C and S allocation.
 
Just listening to Limbaugh.
Yup, I am actually a fiscal conservative.
Who would have thunk it? I'm out of the closet now!

I think I have one reader - Rush Limbaugh.
He just made the point I made earlier.

To summarize, I'll trade the Clinton era tax code for the Clinton era spending. I'll go Rush a step forward - I'll allow another $200 Billion in Federal Feeding at the Trough to cover the war and welfare. The current premium in gubmint bloat is embarrassing. And dangerous. Nobody will back us when hard times hit. Right now we are so fat we can’t even feel the $38.5 Billion dollar cut. This one statement wipes out the Clinton era budget cr@p. No Lib will accept Clinton era spending till the Bond Vigilantes stop lending them money. That time is near anyway...

James, the ball is in your court.
 
Frixxxx,

Bro...

I can already be cocky enough to annoy folks. The very real memory of staring up at 'G Fund' returns keeps me gounded.:p Also, I absolutely know that a wrong move, a bad market, or 'The Black Swan' taking flight could crash me into the ground again.


Anyway, anyone who reads my inanity will know I have two memes.

  1. That I don’t want to be anywhere in the ‘G Fund’ when the Treasury starts borrowing from it. I really don’t think it will become illiquid. But, you never know!!! And, it is kind of a principle thing as well. So, why do I have 20% in the ‘G Fund’ right now? Because the ‘F Fund’ is both correcting and invested in Federal debt instruments. We have no decent choices.
  2. And, that I believe Federal spending is the new Housing and DotCom bubble. Everyone here is looking for the next bubble to burst. Will it be an equities market boosted by FED monetary policy? Will it be a bond market peaking because of fear and interest rate cuts? Will it be Greece? Will it be Illinois? Here is my answer. It will be all of them because it is Gubmint debt that generated the bubbles that affect them all. That bubble will burst very soon. When the FED stops buying debt. When investors stop viewing gubmint debt as an investment. When the FED starts defending the dollar. Folks, we are the bubble!!!
What to do…
  1. I will try to ‘time the Treasury’ and bail to the ‘C Fund’ or ‘I Fund’ before a Treasury raid on my ‘G Fund’ assets. That is the easy part.
  2. I will try to have 3 – 6 months of living expenses and no revolving credit by the time the FED strengthens the dollar. Hopefully, I have six or seven months… And, I am actively looking for quality employment in the private sector…
 
Re(1): 'Ping', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez (Wretchard)
Re(2): 'Delete from TbPerp Where...'. The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez (Wretchard)

The old adage that you can't outrun a radio proved true once again this past weekend.

While folks are justifiably huzzahing our special forces and our intelligence services, a more basic axiom has presented itself.

The value of information, the speed of information, and the exploitation of information.​
What Wretchard is postulating is that our military and intelligence services now process data into actionable information faster than the enemy can adjust. We are often inside the enemies OODA Loop. We will be hearing of a rollup soon enough.

And, for those who will soon decry the death of innocent victims at bin Laden’s house, a simple message:
We might be nearing the end of our 4th Turning. One that starts with a war and ends with a financial collapse.

I hope we can say ‘Been there, Done that…’
 
Folks,

Expect your credit card rates to increase in July. There will be no QE3 and the Gubmint will be competing for your credit. This might mean very good things for our 'G Funders' as well - unless the Treasury games the system...
 
A Sane Discussion on the Debt Ceiling

Brian Wesbury discusses the debt ceiling - what it is, how the Treasury will manage it, and the decisions to be made.

As an aside, in April 2011 the revenue to the Federal government was $289 Billion and our debt payment was $29 Billion. Our monthly debt payment was 10% of our monthly income.

The only thing that happens if Congress refuses to increase the debt ceiling is that we cannot increase our debt load.
 
Wow, just looked at EBIS...

For the first time I see an 'Early Retirement' option. And, I like what I see if it means I get that pension starting around the date of separation. That would make it like a military pension - that is, I still have plenty of working years left and I would get decent pension money while still working. The early retirement date is 12/2012.

Are they prepping for RIFs or is this normal.

And, if they offer an early retirement, do I have to hang around till 12/2012?

I love what I do, am good at it, and am fairly young. But, recently, the actual job environment leaves something to be desired. Also, the job market for database and application programmers is still quite good. Wouldn't mind rolling out the door if the dummies pay a monthly pension check:p.
 
Risk - Amoeba's Bane...

Been sitting on 20% in the 'G Fund'. Helped a little in the downturn.

But, Amoeba, you have to be in to win!!!
G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 50%
S: 15%
I: 35%​
The S&P500 (C) is still -21% from its all time high, the EFA (I) -40%. The VXF (S) is actually +2.23% over the 2007 highs. My guess is that the AGG (F) is topy and awaiting a sell off.

So, after this recent downturn I am placing my money on the funds with room to run!!!

And, Amoeba, all the moves increased share holding in each of the funds. Not locking in losses. Yet:nuts:
 
Market Timer Folks...

To win the trading game you have to be right twice. If this mornings action means anything (and, it is 'Dumb Money Hour') than yesterdays growth is gone. I still think the market oversold and will meander up. Yesterday gave me hope for a boom. If we jump 5% or so I will be looking to move some assets to safety.

But, where is safety. The 'G Fund' is being used twice to prop Federal bloat. The 'F Fund' contains financial instruments that appear very bubbly.
 
cool, I knew there were reasons I like living where I live. sorry boghie, Kali's not overly welcome-they tend to drive up property taxes for one thing, but after a first hard winter they often go back where they came from anyway. ;)
 
alevin said:
cool, I knew there were reasons I like living where I live. sorry boghie, Kali's not overly welcome-they tend to drive up property taxes for one thing, but after a first hard winter they often go back where they came from anyway. ;)
Click to expand...

Alevin,

Kalis not welcome, that is not fair!
I can move wherever I want.
I got my rights!!!

a.bmp


Good thing Dirty Harry had better aim!!! Yuk, yuk...

Actually, the Scorpio's of Kaliforea will stick around. It’s all we got left. We just let another 40,000 out of the slam.

All you will get is the lawyers, activists, and community organizers. They sued, promoted, and agitated for the current Kalefornea and are now leaving in droves. Make that herds. Kinda soft and tasty.

I'm starting to like that deal:nuts:
 
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