Boghies Account Talk

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All this elation...
Our TSPTalk members are all a'twitter...
Posting links to investors who believe Bernanke's helicopters will fly forever...

Yowser:p

Me thinks I will risk gains in a market I feel is in Momentum Mode - especially the 'S Fund'. My plan is to slowly bail to the Gubmints Slush Fund (G). Especially from the 'S Fund'. Later this week I think I will be at:
  • G: 34% (Dear God, I hate the 'G Fund')
  • F: 0% (but, Good Lord, I hate the 'F Fund' even more)
  • C: 40% (Seems fairly valued)
  • S: 10% (I can't time anything, so why not have some here too)
  • I: 16% (This is the one fund that seems undervalued)
Don't hold me to this. I haven't made the trade. If my meandering thoughts continue in this direction you will see them on the AutoTracker. But, at spot 200, me thinks most of the smart folks will just use this as a sentiment marker.

But, our Sentiment Survey seems to be turning as well.

What a horrible time to run to the 'G Fund'. The market is booming and the Federal Treasury is grasping. Anyone around during the last Federal Shutdown? Did they lock 'G Fund' assets? That is, can I move assets out of the 'G Fund' if the Feds borrow from it?
 
Boghie said:
the Gubmints Slush Fund ...
  • G: 34% (Dear God, I hate the 'G Fund')
  • F: 0% (but, Good Lord, I hate the 'F Fund' even more)
  • C: 40% (Seems fairly valued)
  • S: 10% (I can't time anything, so why not have some here too)
  • I: 16% (This is the one fund that seems undervalued)
... Did they lock 'G Fund' assets? That is, can I move assets out of the 'G Fund' if the Feds borrow from it?
Click to expand...

in situations like that i don't think it matters much which fund your money is in. it is all just paper somewhere on a server in new york. and you can't eat your paper. well, you can, but it tastes better with some old shoe leather in the pot.

if you don't got it in your hand you won't have it when you need it.

me, i'm buying rocks. they're heavy, hard to steal, look nice in my yard, and nobody wants them, totally undervalued, contrarian play here.
 
Yowser Burrocrat...

I'm not talking about grabbing the old long rifle, a wife beater t-shirt, and some dirty boots and headin' up to the mountain lodge where I hid my gold stash.:nuts:

I just think some of the overheated sectors will face a normalizing correction. The 'S Fund' seems kinda bubbly:p.

The other question is that I don't want to seek safety in the 'F Fund' - it is correcting as I type. So, that leaves the 'G Fund'.

And, assets in the 'G Fund' have been borrowed in the past to keep the checks flowing when the Federal Debt Cap is not raised. My move will be temporary. I don't want assets locked in the 'G Fund' till a bunch of squabbling politicians get winded. That may take some time:laugh:.
 
Nope...

Expect a Gubmint Shutdown that nobody cares about. Should start right after my next paycheck. I think I lucked out. I just refinanced my HEL into my mortgage - so, I think I paid off both and my first new payment starts April 1. Yeah...

Also, I think our pay/benefit package will not be substancially changed. It simply is not as gold plated as 'Hannity the Ignit' thinks it is. I can get better pay and benefits elsewhere. State and City employees are a different story. They live in the 1960s. Big pensions, 100% health benefits, COLAs, etc.. I feel for them. The politicians and citizens will slash that stuff - and they can. Laws will change, regulations will vanish, and the almighty dollar will rule the land.

However, they can't touch our 401(k) (that is, TSP). Citizens and Blowhards alike believe those are viable retirement packages. Our pension portion, however, will be jiggered - as will Social Security.

Game over, folks...

Just be extremely glad you have 401(k) assets in your name that CANNOT be jiggered. Whether by Senator Schumer or by Senator DeMint.
 
I love the smell of losing money in the morning:p

Anyway, I think I will wait a day or so before I move that 17% G into I...
 
BT beat me to it again this year...

I'll never catch him...

I start mulling a move to the 'I Fund'. Thinking about a barbell split of 40/20/40 C/S/I. Watch the market. Convince myself to make a move. And, slyly check on the smart folk's moves here.

Dammit, BirchTree grabs it first.
Can't copy him, now can I.
That would be tacky.
Nice Pyramid, eh.
:p

So, I picked an old standby for a booming market. Gotta love dumb corrections:
  • G: 0% (Of course)
  • F: 0% (No Brainer)
  • C: 40% (Fairly valued)
  • S: 30% (Although I 'think' this one may have played itself out)
  • I: 30% (This one hasn't boomed like the others)
But I do like BT's 40/20/40 C/S/I better.:o
 
Boghie said:
BT beat me to it again this year...

Dammit, BirchTree grabs it first.

But I do like BT's 40/20/40 C/S/I better.:o
Click to expand...

Tsk, tsk...Apparently with both hands tied behind his back (figuritively speaking)

because he is working in his yard today and not paying attention to the market (so he says) :D

You better get on the stick, Boghie. :)
 
Thanks Burrocrat...
However, one must remember it takes two trades to time a market...

:nuts:

I, personally, don't believe in short term timing.
Just trying to catch the wave before the summer doldrums.
 
Where are the Carriers

An ally cannot compete,
And, we didn't think we should compete.
And now ten retired British senior officers have asked, “where are the carriers?” According to the BBC the officers criticized the British government for not having an aircraft carrier to cover a possible operation, to which a defense spokesman replied, ‘why should we when the Americans are not?’ The British can’t field a carrier because they have nothing to field. On the other hand, the USN has no carrier in the region because for some reason, they’ve decided not to field.​
I think the Eurotrash were hoping streaming NetFlix 'soft power' would be enough...

Hope, Change.

I don't think so:

picture.php


Kinda looks like this dipsh!t has all the cards.

Maybe we could sanction chocolate covered strawberries.:embarrest:

And, the Chinese are about to realize that they have been sleeping with Terror Turds. Me thinks a frigate will not play much of a role in safeguarding 30,000 Chinese citizens.
 
Well,

I got complimented by Burrocrat on a smooth groove market timing move (sounds pretty good when you sing it:p).

But, as I stated, you must be right twice to market time...
I was right once. Didn't lose anything, but didn't gain anything...

Anyway, my plan is to be about 45% out of market for the Summer doldrums. It is generally a lousy time to be in the market. Lots of churning and very little real growth - but, something bad can happen that drives things into the dirt. So, why be in:
  • G: 30% (I hate this)
  • F: 0% (No Brainer)
  • C: 38% (Money flowing to big corporate fat cat entities)
  • S: 12% (I 'think' this one may have played itself out)
  • I: 20% (This one hasn't boomed like the others, kinda beat up)

Average Annual Growth: 5%
Average Annual Risk: 7%

I have enough in to participate in gains. I have enough out to reinvest current gains during a market correction.
 
Bad Company

I feel in good company (or you in bad company) now in making moves that make no sense:

You did a partial bail with the SPY price below the 20 DMA/EMA? Why? 3/8 trading days were above the 20 MA's; you must think the market is heading lower.....or your subconscious is telling you so. Still, with the 50 DMA holding like a rock, why bail at all?

You could be right....but if you really thought that (or any of the alternatives below)....you would stayed in, or bailed out completely.

There's a couple alternative scenarios - and they don't go in the same direction:

One - this oil thing festers - forcing prices into the $120+ stratosphere and beyond - that have NOTHING to do with supply/demand and everything to do with speculation; this will grind the GDP growth into dust as long as it lasts - and stock prices would be in a free fall. Consumption will decline, oil will remain high, and the market will take NO prisoners.

Two - this oil thing will NOT last - and the you miss the big bounce when the Libyan issues settle (which could be at a drop of the hat).

Three - this whole pause (and that's all it is - 3% from the peak); has nothing to do with oil - it was an overdue move; oil was the catalyst - and it will move into correction territory after breaking the 50 DMA (another -7-8%).

I still seem to have the innate ability to get into the market at just the wrong moment, stay too long, hope too much or not enough, and not understand emotion. I'm Bad Company - if there ever was.
 
Last edited:
Re: Bad Company

Amoeba,

I think we are in or near a market churn. Normal summer doldrums. Why be 100% in a market when it is likely to go nowhere. It is more likely to correct than to boom. It has been booming. It hasn't been correcting.

Summer 2009 was great...
But, summer 2010 was not so great...

And, Amoeba, I'm only 30% out of the market. I'll probably be 40% - 50% out of the market from April/May through October. I'll let the market decide. And, I doubt I'll use my last IFT to bail out.

amoeba said:
I feel in good company (or you in bad company) now in making moves that make no sense:

You did a partial bail with the SPY price below the 20 DMA/EMA? Why? 3/8 trading days were above the 20 MA's; you must think the market is heading lower.....or your subconscious is telling you so. Still, with the 50 DMA holding like a rock, why bail at all?

You could be right....but if you really thought that (or any of the alternatives below)....you would stayed in, or bailed out completely.

There's a couple alternative scenarios - and they don't go in the same direction:

One - this oil thing festers - forcing prices into the $120+ stratosphere and beyond - that have NOTHING to do with supply/demand and everything to do with speculation; this will grind the GDP growth into dust as long as it lasts - and stock prices would be in a free fall. Consumption will decline, oil will remain high, and the market will take NO prisoners.

Two - this oil thing will NOT last - and the you miss the big bounce when the Libyan issues settle (which could be at a drop of the hat).

Three - this whole pause (and that's all it is - 3% from the peak); has nothing to do with oil - it was an overdue move; oil was the catalyst - and it will move into correction territory after breaking the 50 DMA (another -7-8%).

I still seem to have the innate ability to get into the market at just the wrong moment, stay too long, hope too much or not enough, and not understand emotion. I'm Bad Company - if there ever was.
Click to expand...
 
you finished exactly 0.00 today, i'm down -1.05, way to stick the landing.

you strapped in? it's going to be a ride.
 
Burrocrat,

Love that 0.00. That is the hardest thing to do. At least I can be proud of something this year:p.


Anyway, for any of you chaps who have been watching the '24 Hour Panic News Networks' here are some factual sites to watch (and maybe make money on):
In the end, the most important thing is facts. I figured out early on that CNN, FoxNews, and MSNBC were clueless. Who cares what clueless yaks have to say about anything. Too bad the progress on the reactors came after 12 EST. Probably still money to be made in the 'I Fund'. It hadn't recovered fully from 2008 prior to the 'Meltdown through the Earths Core'.
 
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