Boghies Account Talk

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Interesting market discussion going on here..... :toung:

I live up in Michigan, so solar panels aren't a very good investment I don't think... take quite a while to break even. My furnace is about 18 years old, so I'm planning on putting a geothermal unit in this summer or next, not sure which yet. It's pricey, but with the gov rebate of 30% will help. Plus I really like the idea of unplugging from the natural gas grid and not having to worry about that cost going up. They have circulators that will heat the water in your hot water tank too... so where I live, geothermal looks like a win-win route to go. Anyone have any experience with geothermal?
 
DakotaKid said:
Interesting market discussion going on here..... :toung:

I live up in Michigan, so solar panels aren't a very good investment I don't think... take quite a while to break even. My furnace is about 18 years old, so I'm planning on putting a geothermal unit in this summer or next, not sure which yet. It's pricey, but with the gov rebate of 30% will help. Plus I really like the idea of unplugging from the natural gas grid and not having to worry about that cost going up. They have circulators that will heat the water in your hot water tank too... so where I live, geothermal looks like a win-win route to go. Anyone have any experience with geothermal?
Click to expand...

Sub Terra Geothermal Heat Pumps
 
DakotaKid said:
Interesting market discussion going on here..... :toung:

I live up in Michigan, so solar panels aren't a very good investment I don't think... take quite a while to break even. My furnace is about 18 years old, so I'm planning on putting a geothermal unit in this summer or next, not sure which yet. It's pricey, but with the gov rebate of 30% will help. Plus I really like the idea of unplugging from the natural gas grid and not having to worry about that cost going up. They have circulators that will heat the water in your hot water tank too... so where I live, geothermal looks like a win-win route to go. Anyone have any experience with geothermal?
Click to expand...

Reading CRWS' link informs me that the geothermal units work with a forced heat furnace. So, you might have to double up on expensive.

But, on the good side, I bought a new furnace/air conditioner almost two years ago. It is so much quieter and much more even on heat exchange. And I have definitely noticed the change in gas usage - although the winters have become colder here as a result of global warming:p. The new gas water heater also seems to have saved about 10% - 15% in gas usage.

All these numbers are a bit hard for me to verify. All I can say is my bills ARE lower - and, now I have a full time mother in law to go with ever increasing Kaleforea gas and electric rates.
 
I've had a couple companies give me estimates this year on a geothermal unit. My understanding is there is no longer a forced air furnace. Rather, a heat exchanger is put in. The only cost of the system is the electricity to run the fan to blow the air through the ducts, and the electricity to run the pump which circulates the fluid through the pipes in the ground. I'm surprised that this company only goes 2 ft down, perhaps OR has warmer temps than MI. I believe my estimates said they'd put the coils 6 ft down.

Anyway, I was curious if anybody had taken the geothermal plunge and what their experience was. If anybody wants to share, please pm me so we can stop hijacking Boghie's account :)
 
Barely made it...

I was hoping that a good year (and, I hate the fact that my frequent trading earlier this year resulted in trailing the S&P by a couple points) would result in returning my long term (2004+) annual return to over 10%.

Made it by the skin of my teeth. 10.06%.
Yowser...

But, now I can get the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate). 9.38%
Oh, well...
Knowledge can be depressing...

Thank God I lost a bit less in 2008:)

Note: I picked 2004 because I started tracking my TSP contributions and pricing in Quicken as a New Year's resolution then. At least I have kept that one:p.
 
Always Read 'The Belmont Club'

Re(1): 'The Crusade of Innocents', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez (Wretchard)
Re(2): 'Anarchy is Back', Instapundit, Glenn Reynolds

So, the Left is dissatisfied...
And, their messaging dupes are hollering...

The Left places their hope for change in a man and the state. Inevitably, they fail to produce. Then either/both the man and the state are castigated. So much hope for so much change - and what is done never works. Thus, since what was wanted obviously works, the fault must lie with the man. Out with the old man, time for a new man. But, never a time for new ideas.

Bring out the Red Guard.
But, the Old Man suppresses the Red Guard.
In the end, all one can say with any accuracy is ‘Oh, well’.
 
Re(1): 'The Voyage of the Doomed', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

The phrase “no American is ever made better off by pulling a fellow American down, and every American is made better off whenever any one of us is made better off. A rising tide raises all boats,” once derided as the hallmark of simplistic American trickle down economics, may embody some wisdom after all. At least in comparison to a low growth, redistributive economy which is running out of stuff to redistribute.​

Ouch...
 
Re(1): 'The Debt Limit and Your TSP Fund', FedSmith, Ralph Smith

Borrowing to cover expenses, and what it means to your 'G Fund' assets:p

My favorite quote:
It is conceivable that TSP investors (and others) will see the value of their stocks dropping at the same time the G fund is used by the federal government to help with the debt problem.​

I have been struggling with this as well. Recently, the entire suite of funds we can own (excluding the 'G Fund' helper) have declined. I'm not fond of those memories.

And, as Ralph Smith note, our only stable fund can be borrowed by the chaps who have borrowed $3 Trillion in just two years.

Don't worry.

Be Happy.

:o
 
Well...

I've decided to risk about a third (1/3) of my assets to being borrowed by my overspendin' boozin' uncle in the closet.

Don't like the market short to mid term.

Don't want to be like last year and trade frequently, but don't want to be like last year and watch growth zero out either.

Anyway,
G: 34%
F: 0%
C: 39%
S: 15:
I: 12%​
This is a variant of Ric Edelman's Portfolio 'The Lies About Money' Portfolio 30. Since the bond fund is moving in concert with the equities funds (ah, remember those days in 2008 and 2009) I moved that allocation percentage (22%) into the 'G Fund' allocation.

The expected return is: 7%
The expected risk is: 8%

My account's previous allocation had an expected return of 10%, the expected risk was 13%.

Now, I just gotta hope that this Administration doesn't decide to grab the change in my 'G Fund' assets.:notrust:
 
This won't make the 'oil ticks' happy, eh:laugh:

The two other similar technologies also show promise.

Maybe they got all of Saddam's bioweapons:p
 
Boghie said:
This won't make the 'oil ticks' happy, eh:laugh:

The two other similar technologies also show promise.

Maybe they got all of Saddam's bioweapons:p
Click to expand...

"fruition" would be a key phase.
I've always thought photosynthesis could have a key role in alternative energy development.
 
I've passed under the 'G Fund' yoke long enough...
But, I can't completely shed the chains of slavery...

Time for a moderate allocation:
G: 17%
F: 0% (rather watch this one fall)
C: 48%
S: 25%
I: 10% (this could be dumb, maybe dumber!)​
I have no idea what the risk/return on this fine allocation is. But, it is similar to a Moderate allocation from last may. So, my guess is an expected return of about 9% and an expected risk of 10%.
 
And,

After a private message...

Yes...

I keep my signature line in affect because I am humbled by looking by up at the ‘G Fund for 2008’

I pray I never do so again.

I also pray that I never match it.

Amoeba, take that to heart. Matching the ‘G Fund’ will guarantee an ‘Alpo Meal Deal’ retirement. You have to take rosl (that would be risk if you were not drinking 10.3% alchohol ‘Samuel Adam Imerial Whiel’ beer) to live a decent life in retirement. Please listen to me. I know very little, but I know this. You have to make at least 8% on your retirement assets. Anything less and I’ll be paying for your Alpo.

Help me, God, help me.

I don’t want to subsidize Amoeba.

This, Oh My God, is so sad for a UCSD graduate.

Let’s keep that kinda quiet. I don’t want to hurt their rankings.
 
Is this interesting???

Our Fund prices at/near the top of the market (as defined by the S&P500, 2007/10/09):
G: $12.1500
F: $11.5800
C: $17.5700
S: $21.2700
I: $25.7300​
Our Fund prices on 2008/06/16 (S&P near where we are):
G: $12.4800
F: $11.9300
C: $15.4900
S: $19.5100
I: $22.8200​
Our Fund prices at the Dump (S&P Low, 2009/03/09):
G: $12.7996
F: $12.4323
C: $ 7.8673
S: $ 9.0631
I: $10.2903​
Current Pricing:
G: $13.5324
F: $14.1048
C: $16.1053
S: $22.5195
I: $20.8469​

If we ignore current events - under the assumption that the more things change the more they stay the same - it kinda appears that the 'F Fund' is way overvalued, the 'C Fund' a bit so, the 'S Fund' is in a bubble, and its time to buy the 'I Fund'.

I don't know.

That trigger pull seems on the long side, eh...

But, remember, things balance to the norm (normally:p)

So, we should be in for making up lost growth from the 2007 highs.

Hope, change:laugh:
 
I would not be at all surprised to see the S fund give back another 2% soon like it did on Jan. 19th - I'd actually welcome that pain. Something around $0.50 would do just fine. Those numbers demonstrate that anyone keeping the faith over the last two years has been well rewarded. Those golden prices are most likely long gone making it more difficult for new employees to accumulate cheap shares with their contributions - sure glad I got mine. It's now time to focus on the longer-term several years ahead. I just wish there wasn't a required minimum distribution when we hit 70.
 
Well...

After much thoughtless thought...
I've decided my future with respect to the above...

My current contribution split is:
40% C
30% S
30% I​
I don't want to mess with my current allocation. My plan regarding the allocation is to move a little to safety each month till May. Then hold around 50% (C/S/I) and 50% (G/F). Probably not much F. Summer is usually lousy for the market - too much volatility.

Anyway, given that, I will change my contributions to:
30% C
20% S
50% I
And, potentially gut out the free two points The One gave us this year...​
Enjoy,

R:nuts:
 
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