Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Top Return Folks - Keepin' Their Powder Dry...

After Mojo pointed out the 'IFT of the Day' page to me I can't get off it.

I poke around on it at least twice a day - and, when I am trade goofy more times than that. Too bad I don't trust it more than I do. Live and learn.

Anyway, it seems as if the top types are keeping their powder dry this month. Nothing into the market, nothing out. If you were in the market you are holding fast. If you were out of the market you are holding fast.

Folks, that just ain't fair. Knucleheads like me either can't figure out the pattern or find the pattern that fits our mood!!! :embarrest:

I am starting to think that using the Top 10 allocation average might be a nice balance. The Top 5 might be too risky. And, right now the allocation of the Top 10 looks good. Maybe it just fits my mood, eh...

 

[KevinD]

You talkin' about this page?

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_toplist.php

Or this one?

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

 

[Boghie]

KevinD,

I often review the 'IFT of the Day' (second list in your comment) now. I had seen it before and something triggered in my two brain cells - but it didn't fire off long enough or hard enough. I think it is a great way to see how the chaps in this little club of ours are investing...

The 'Oceans' list (first list) is a great list. Some of the big boomers are 'getting theirs' via high risk trading. That is fine for them, but not for me. I kinda like allocations. So maybe a 'sentiment survey' of the 'Top Ten' could provide some data towards a profitable allocation.

Kinda figure you know all that. But, I like to hear myself type :cheesy:

 

[Boghie]

TSPTalk Quintiles (No Subscriptions, No Indexes, Full Year In)...

The following are a (probably crude) quintile average of current YTD Returns and current allocations by Quintile.

Quint   YTD	Daily	MTD	YTD	G	F	C	S	I
	Returns	Returns	# IFT	# IFT					
All	1.48%	1.35%	0.23	4.77	47.59	10.97	13.49	12.15	14.81
1	8.06%	1.87%	0.22	4.50	32.63	7.50	23.66	24.16	12.06
2	4.18%	2.51%	0.06	2.56	18.91	6.56	24.81	9.13	40.56
3	1.96%	0.57%	0.16	3.50	73.75	4.81	9.97	7.03	4.25
4	-0.21%	0.77%	0.34	5.97	59.41	17.78	2.72	10.75	4.69
5	-7.13%	1.03%	0.37	7.50	53.67	18.67	5.83	9.50	12.33

A couple of interesting observations:
Quintile 1 folks have pulled 33% of their allocations to cash, and split the rest amongh the C/S/I. There is very little confidence in the 'F Fund'. They seem to be bailing out of the market with their IFTs. 13 of 32 people in this quintile have 50%+ in the G/F Funds.

Quintile 2 folks are not trading their accounts, hold very little G/F and have a high allocation in the 'I Fund' and a very modest C/S holding. They seem to be attempting to ride the wave. They seem to also be more confident that we are in a more sustained growth period - and have thought so for the entire year. 7 of 32 people have 50%+ in the G/F Funds. The rest are much more bullish. Hello Birch...

Quintile 3 folks are not trading and have NO confidence in the market. They are happy with 'G Fund' returns. 23 of 32 people here hold 50%+ in the G/F Funds. 5 of the 32 folks in this quintile have 30% or more in C/S/I. These folks are either very bearish or nearing/in retirement.

Quintile 4 folks look similar to Quintile 3 bubbas, but there is more gambling going on in this casino. 13 of 30 folks have 30% or more assets in their C/S/I funds.

 

[Boghie]

Time to Buy...

Looks like a correction is taking place.

Would have bought into C/S/I this morning if I wasn't swamped at work. That may have saved me a few points, or may cause me to lose a few points. Don’t really know, don’t really care…

Tomorrow, work permitting, will be the day of my final May IFT. Probably to:

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Maybe I'll wait to see if some of the bulls peel back...

We shall see

 

[Boghie]

Re: Time to Buy...

Looks like a correction is taking place.

Would have bought into C/S/I this morning if I wasn't swamped at work. That may have saved me a few points, or may cause me to lose a few points. Don’t really know, don’t really care…

Tomorrow, work permitting, will be the day of my final May IFT. Probably to:

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Maybe I'll wait to see if some of the bulls peel back...

We shall see

Absolutely swamped today. Didn't get my IFT in. I will try to remember to get it in tomorrow. My guess is that unless the market dumps early tomorrow we are on are way back up...

By the way, isn't todays (2009/05/14) 'F Fund' chart an odd looking one. Look at those swings.

 

[Boghie]

Hasta La Vista, Arnold!

Watch Kalifornea folks,
Watch the Panic of May 19th
Kinda wish I didn't live in this state

Whats the weather like in Afghanistan :nuts:

Maybe those who pay the nickels for gubmint bloat wont rant and rave and protest - but we sure do vote

Hasta La Vista, Arnold!

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Time to Buy...

Would have bought into C/S/I this morning if I wasn't swamped at work.

Absolutely swamped today. Didn't get my IFT in. I will try to remember to get it in tomorrow.

I'm a little confused... I assume you know that the TSP website / thrift line accepts transfers 24 hrs a day??

Good luck whatever you decide!

 

[Boghie]

100% In the Market

100% in the Market...

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Why, I don't think we are in for a full correction. Optionman, Birch, and some others are all in...

 

[Steadygain]

Re: 100% In the Market

100% in the Market...

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 40%
S: 30%
I: 30%

Why, I don't think we are in for a full correction. Optionman, Birch, and some others are all in...

I have to admit - if I had my TSP Investments exactly like yours...


I could see myself (at least in my mind) moon walking down the halls and spinning and swaying and having a great time.

And telling everyone enthusiatically: 'Oh yeal !! I'm raking it in' !!

Birch is always in !!! So if you're using him as the guide then forget that G (or F) even exist.

Optionman I haven't had time to follow - maybe he's too quiet. :toung:

Anyway today is a very good day

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, it's a good day but won't be a very good day unless we can crack the 200 point barrier. That could happen after the 1500 hour mark when the goo starts easing out of the bears. There is a reason I'm always in - I don't want to miss any points in either direction.

 

[Boghie]

Ahem, It's Only a Good Day When One Is 'In The Market'

Ahem Steady and Birch,

Today will only be OK for me. I am currently only 35% 'In The Market'.

That will change COB.

I number crunched my allocation this weekend and can handle a standard correction without a trace of tears. You gotta be able to handle 10% - 20% corrections if you want to be in. I won't lose that much because I can bail to the G, but...

Like Birch, I think there will be movement back into the market.

 

[Boghie]

Runnin' With the Blind Sows

Snort...
Snort......
Snort.........

She don't look much like a bull to me.
She lookin' for that acorn, yeh.
She shore is running fast.
She seems kinda blind.

I'll ride this blind sow around for a while.
She'll share an acorn with me :blink:
I'll be patient. :laugh:

If the market can post even a small gain with the lousy news of the day than this thing looks enough like a bull to ride around on for a while, eh...

 

[Boghie]

Riding the Pig

Question,

• A market ‘correction’ is a 10% - 20% drop in value.
• A market ‘crash’ exceeds the market correction and is noted by a demonstration of panic and fear.

From October 2007 through most of September 2008 we were in a steep market correction. Then a panic hit and we fell into a crash. We all know what caused the panic. We fell almost 57% in the S&P 500 index. Most of the aggressive abusers of leverage are now gone, but not forgotten. What remains of the high leveraged goobers are echoes assumed within other companies – BofA and Wells Fargo for example.

Now, for the question:

Is the general trend a correction or a crash?

If a general trend than a 20% decline (to 1250) from the market high leaves you a wonderful chance to make a 35% gain from the current market point in the S&P. A very bearish 30% decline (to 1090) offers you an 18% gain. Uuuummmm, tasty!

If we are in a protracted crash than our current low point is only exceeded by that of the Great Depression (an ugly 57% against an even uglier 89%). But, assuming the panic has been resolved the downward slope might result in uncommon 3% - 6% daily losses with a more common ‘gentle’ glide slope being the norm. The Depression glided from -50% to -89% in 17 months. And, the up bumps (bear market rallies) were far more aggressive than the downward slopes to oblivion.

Thus, to answer my own question, I don’t think I care if we are correcting or crashing. A light trading policy keyed on three allocations makes sense. Currently, I am in bull mode. I hope to ride my fast pig through June:toung:. If my pig falters (the stimulus money dries up or the gubmint can’t borrow anymore) I will have time to migrate to a safer allocation.

What I don’t like is that I cannot target my allocation to regions in the world. I don’t like the fact that we are stuck with US/Europe/Japan. But, those are our choices. And, I dislike the G/F options even more in the event of a gubmint credit crisis.

Joy.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Riding the Pig

Question,

• A market ‘correction’ is a 10% - 20% drop in value.
• A market ‘crash’ exceeds the market correction and is noted by a demonstration of panic and fear.

What I don’t like is that I cannot target my allocation to regions in the world. I don’t like the fact that we are stuck with US/Europe/Japan. But, those are our choices. And, I dislike the G/F options even more in the event of a gubmint credit crisis.

Joy.

Your so right,
The TSP is shorting us...ALL, over a million federal/military in the TSP serveral billion under management (14B in I fund alone) thousand of investing option,but 10 funds is it for TSP??? WHY?

 

[Boghie]

Happy Days Are Here Again!

Just watch this clip to see the value of inflation in fighting our current economic doldrums...

What inflation has done before, it will do again!

Everything is looking up!

Happy Days Are Here Again!

A mere eight years later we climbed out of the Depression to fight a World War.

Happy Days Are Here Again!

 

[Boghie]

Oh My...

Folks,

This is the individual to whom President Obama's ear is turned...

I have a question for Mrs. Romer:

You and the Administration have constantly stipulated that President Obama "has laid out a plan to shrink the deficit he inherited by half".

He inherited a projected FY2009 deficit of $420 Billion. His stimulus and bailouts have increased the FY2009 deficit to a projected $1,800 Billion.

I can accept policies to cut the deficit to $210 Billion - with the downward trajectory you mention.

Cutting it to an annual $900 Billion - not so much

Which deficit - the actual inherited deficit or the boldly and massively increased 'inherited' deficit - is the one to which you speak?

 

[Bullitt]

So what kind of funds would you two like to see?

Money Market rates are at 1%. What more would you like to see other than the G Fund? To get yield higher than that, you're talking about taking on some serious risk in the junk bond market.

 

[Boghie]

New Funds, I Want Them All

What are some other funds or ETFs I would have interest in…

I would like to see a money market fund, a REIT index fund, and something like a Developing Country fund. Maybe even a gold or commodities fund. Maybe a few sector ETFS. However, I do know that too many choices oftentimes lead to folks making no choice - thus leaving their TSP assets and allocations in the 'G Fund'. A certain Alpo Meal Retirement Plan.

My 'complaint' really wasn't a complaint. We are actually in pretty good shape. We use very low cost ETFs that can be tracked and the expenses can be validated.

My 'complaint' regarding the 'F Fund' is being borne out by its YTD performance. Right now I really don't want to be invested in anything that depends on our national and/or my state (California) government being high quality borrowers. Much of the 'F Fund' can be inflated away or defaulted on. That can (and does) happen to both the public and private elements of the ‘F Fund’. So my ‘complaint’ regarding the ‘F Fund’ is really just a concern on its validity in today’s current market.

I have more issues with regards to the ‘G Fund’. The 'G Fund' can also be borrowed from by the Federal Government. At least twice in the last eight years the Treasury has borrowed assets from the 'G Fund' to tide themselves over till Congress voted to give itself a higher credit line. Who is to say that the Treasury will not borrow a bit in July hoping that the Chinese buy enough Treasuries in August to pay it back? Remember, the ‘G Fund’ is Social Security bonds – nothing more, nothing less. What has stopped Congress from using the Social Security surplus to fund Woodstock Museums, Bridges to Nowhere, Aquariums, etc..

So, yeah, I probably would rather move to a 1% Money Market Fund rather than a 3.25% ‘G Fund’ as my personal Lilly Pad. It would be in my name, not in a Social Security lock box – yuk, yuk…

 

[XL-entLady]

Boghie, I agree with your list. The four on my own personal wish list would be REIT index, something like the DBC ETF commodity index, an emerging countries one and a precious metals one. But that is probably way too much to hope for.

Lady