bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

IFT today, from all out 100G to all in 50C 50S.

Been a wild ride but might finally go positive on this move if we close at or above current levels today. Woo!

 

[bmneveu]

HELLO futures!

 

[bmneveu]

Why the market crashed last week, and why it rallied this week: (general presidential election and tax plan information included)

 

[bmneveu]

Good morning money!!!

 

[bmneveu]

Good morning money!!!

Boy did those early gains sell off hard in the afternoon. My TSP still did well but my individual account got slammed as its mostly tech. Luckily that account is a fraction of my TSP.

I just noted all the topside candlestick wicks on this leg up in Coolhand's thread. I don't like it. I am on the edge of getting out. Gonna sit on my hands and think about it for a bit.

 

[bmneveu]

What a month. +19.57% for the S fund. RSI suggests it has been extremely overbought for about 2 weeks now. Odd timing too as we head into what is usually a good time of year for stocks, the santa claus rally. Maybe we take a quick breather and then start the rally a little later than normal.

 

[nasa1974]

What a month. +19.57% for the S fund. RSI suggests it has been extremely overbought for about 2 weeks now. Odd timing too as we head into what is usually a good time of year for stocks, the santa claus rally. Maybe we take a quick breather and then start the rally a little later than normal.

I would like to see a little pull back. I went to "G" Wednesday because of so many gaps right now in the "S" fund. That and I was comfortable where I am in my account. Good luck everyone.

 

[bmneveu]

Chart Patterns I see playing out over the next 1-2 months:

AMD - Bull Pennant, points up
ZM - Head and Shoulders, points down
SIRI - Reverse Head and Shoulders and/or Cup and Handle, points up
INTC - Bear Flags, point down
PYPL - Bull Channel, points up

 

[Tsunami]

Regarding AMD, if one had followed this system since 1/1/2004...

The Ridiculous Seasonality of AMD | Jay On The Markets

...and invested $1,000 in AMD on 1/1/2004, and endured the wild ups and downs without deviating from the system, the initial $1000 investment would now be worth $92,159 as of yesterday.

 

[bmneveu]

Cup and Handle formed on Pinterest (PINS) since the end of October with a breakout over the handle for confirmation. I entered at $69, targeting $81.50.

Also bought AMD yesterday at $94 with a target of $131.

 

[grimmjsg123]

Wanted to add our Ticker Symbols for futures (after hours) for members to follow I have not seen it before on here for our ETF Funds before. G-VGSH, C-VOO, S-XVF, I-VEA, F-BND

 

[kb9nvh]

marketwatch cant find XVF? is it correct?

Wanted to add our Ticker Symbols for futures (after hours) for members to follow I have not seen it before on here for our ETF Funds before. G-VGSH, C-VOO, S-XVF, I-VEA, F-BND

 

[Tsunami]

That should be VXF

 

[bmneveu]

Assuming the DWCPF (S Fund) is weighted, I wonder how much of this year's 27% (so far) gains are attributed to Tesla stock, which is a monster size market cap now and has had an insane year.

 

[grimmjsg123]

I do not know your answer but do know when it moves it will comprise 1.9% in the S and P and spy is purchasing 88 million dollars worth in shares (found through extensive research.) The research indicated if Tesla tanked, and all other 499 companies remained flat, that would drag the s and p down 1.45%, however if it continues to grow its impact if far greater. Some articles say some profit taking will occur immediately after it is moved we shall see.

 

[bmneveu]

I do not know your answer but do know when it moves it will comprise 1.9% in the S and P and spy is purchasing 88 million dollars worth in shares (found through extensive research.) The research indicated if Tesla tanked, and all other 499 companies remained flat, that would drag the s and p down 1.45%, however if it continues to grow its impact if far greater. Some articles say some profit taking will occur immediately after it is moved we shall see.

Yea at it's current $600B market cap, I don't know how much more room there is to grow. The fundamentals need time to catch up to the hype. The P/E ratio is over 1000. That is not good.

 

[tsptalk]

I remember saying the same thing about Amazon in about 2000. I was selling it short in the $50's, and that was before it split a bunch of times, so probably a single digit price after splits.

I don't know if TSLA is going to be another AMZN, but investors are willing to give a very high P/E to companies where the the shy's the limit on potential.

Where Tesla is in that phase of their business, I don't know. Musk seems to be dumping almost every dollar they make back into the company.

 

[bmneveu]

Bull Flag on PLUG, price target $37.11.

 

[bmneveu]

ZM - Head and Shoulders, points down

There is another H&S on ZM chart now. So two of the same pattern, both very bearish. Pretty good probability that this stock crashes.

 

[bmneveu]

Still fully invested with TSP, 50C 50S, and about 80% in with the smaller trading account as well. Gotta be in it to win it. Don't fight the Fed!