Blog: Monday's Strong Day, Weak Stretch

When a 1-Day Surge Meets a 9-Day Slump: Lessons from 10,000 Sessions

We have an interesting statistical setup from Monday's price action, a strong 1-Session and weak 9-Session return.

From 10K Sessions, Monday's 1.54% close was a Top-6% return, but the 9-Session -.85% close was a bottom 28% return.
Both 1-Session Closes ≥ 1.5% and 9-Session Closes ≤ -.85% have occurred 188 of 10K sessions, a 1.88% event.

So what we can do is filter out those 188 events and look at the Forward returns of the 3-6-9 day performance after the event took place.
We can also look to see if these 188 events were clustered around specific Months & Years.



Nearly half, (90 of 188) of these events occurred in 4 months, Nov ranked 4th with 17 events.

60 of these 188 events occurred in 4 years, 2 of them were stinkers.
2008 returned -38.49%
2022 returned -19.44%
1987 returned 2.04%
2020 returned 16.26%

20 of these 188 events occurred in 4 years & months, all were stinkers.
2020-Mar returned -12.51%
1987-Oct returned -21.76%
2011-Aug returned -5.68%
2008-Nov returned -7.48%