AI-50 Bubble BriefTime: 2025-10-26 08:16 (ET)
AI-50 Definition: A hand-crafted index of S&P 500 AI enablers, with S&P market-cap weights normalized into a single, trackable benchmark.
Note: The AI-50 Bubble Brief is a preliminary overview of how AI enablers are rotating, tracking chips, platform, and infrastructure leaders. This is a rough overview, (time permitting) I hope more features will be added. My primary interest is not with investing in these individual stocks, but with watching their impact on the markets.
AI-50 Sectors & Rotation
MTD Recap: AI-50 outpaced the S&P 500 as semis powered gains. Breadth improved, but leadership stayed focused on chips and platforms.
Weekly Sector Overview: Cyclicals led, anchored by Tech; Industrials and REITs lagged with small gains, keeping tone constructive.
• Key Takeaway: Watch semis and rates; continued chip strength plus calm yields confirms risk-on, weakness flips tone to mixed.
Offensive Assets: Information Technology +1.64%, Consumer Discretionary +0.56% — semis and AMZN carried risk tone.
Defensive Assets: Industrials +0.01%, Real Estate +0.02% — infra paused as cyclicals drew flows.
4–6 Week Rotation Cycle: Early ⟳ Mid ⟳ Late ⟳ Contraction
Primary: Mid - spread favors Mid over Early, trend steady above 10/20-MA, breadth improving.
Alternate: Early - semis thrust, hyperscale steady, pullbacks bought.
Confidence: High — Time, Trend, Breadth align on Mid with Early tilt.
60% Up: Heavyweights hold trends; semis lead and breadth stays firm.
30% Sideways: Leadership narrows to megacaps; ranges build near highs.
10% Down: Semis fade while defensives bid; pullback tests 10/20-MA.
MTD Top 5 Winners: AMD (+56.33%), MU (+30.90%), MPWR (+16.76%), INTC (+14.10%), LRCX (+13.28%)
MTD Top 5 Losers: TXN (−7.95%), APD (−6.53%), LIN (−6.11%), SNPS (−5.92%), HPE (−4.32%)
Information Technology: Semis in control; AMD, MU, MPWR, INTC, LRCX lead as TXN, SNPS, HPE lag; tone stays risk-on.
Communication Services: Search steadies the group; GOOGL lifts tone while META trails; rotation reads Mid with Early tilt.
Consumer Discretionary: Single-engine push from AMZN; follows Tech momentum; breadth modest but constructive.
Industrials: Grid and thermal mixed; PWR firm, JCI steady, CARR drags; participation uneven.
Materials: Gases weak; APD and LIN both down; defensive tone persists.
Real Estate: DC REITs rebound; EQIX and DLR firm as yields ease.
Key Takeaway: Chips drive the tape; rotation sits Mid with an Early tilt, favoring semis and platforms over defensives.
YTD S&P 500’s Tier-Weighted: Rank & Weight Changes
Overview: Top-weight cluster stayed decisive; big climbers broadened leadership while select software and gases lagged.
● Key Takeaway: Heavyweights still set direction; rising climbers add depth to the advance.
● Participation widened across semis and select infra; lag persisted in Materials.
AI-50 — Scenario • Probability • Evidence (conditional)
Advance builds — 68%: If NVDA, MSFT, AMZN stay firm and climbers (DELL, MU) hold 10/20-MA, trend extends. Range holds (±0.5%) — 22%: If leadership narrows and sectors mix, consolidation contains moves near highs. Pullback shallow (>−1%) — 10%: If semis cool and defensives bid, a dip checks rising averages.
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
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