We're seeing typical holiday action with light volume and a positive bias. The Dow ended the day up 25-point, small caps led the way, and bonds were down. Friday historical seasonality is about the same, and the market closes 3 hours early. After the holiday weekend however, a slightly negative bias kicks in except that it is the beginning of a new month, which has a positive bias. It's a coin flip.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is still rising the resistance of the rising wedge. I don't expect any surprises on Friday but volume will be light so any kind of news event could push the indices around quite easily.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There is also the "holiday reversal" to watch for next week.
That's all for today. I'll leave Wednesday's analysis below for anyone who may have missed it.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy your weekend!
Tom Crowley
---------------------------------------------------------------
11/27/13
Stocks were up most of the day on Tuesday, but a late sell-off took many indices down to the breakeven point by the close. The Nasdaq and small caps held onto some nice gains while the Dow and S&P 500 ended the day up less than a point.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 163"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] -0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 83, align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="width: 80, align: right"] +0.14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
S&P 500 (SPY) was flat and the story remains the same. Seasonality is strong for the next two days but weak after the holiday. There is also a tendency for any moves prior to a holiday to reverse after the holiday so whatever happens over the next two days could be a false move.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index is now at the bottom of a rising wedge, but the wedges on many charts are getting so narrow that we could soon see it hit both ends of the wedge during the trading day. That is, until it breaks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq had a good day gaining 0.6% Tuesday, and is at the top of the rising wedge.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps also had a big day as the Russell 2000 picked up 0.7%, closing for a third straight day above the prior high. There's no wedge here making it the best looking chart of the bunch.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today is day -1 on the Thanksgiving Holiday chart. Not a bad day, historically. Neither is Friday (day +1), which will be a short trading day as the markets will close at 1 PM ET. The Monday after Thanksgiving (day +2) has a strong negative bias.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were up yesterday and they continue to improve despite the weak intermediate-term chart formations. The concern would be that this is the pre-holiday "fake-out" move for bonds and next week it will resume the downward move. If they continue higher into next week, we could be seeing a change in trend.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we take a look at the put/call ratios, the intermediate-term indicators, and the December seasonality chart. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! The TSP is closed on Thursday so they won't process any transactions that day. I will post a commentary on Friday, but it has to be written Thanksgiving night, so it could be a very short write-up.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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