Bitcoin

[Tsunami]

Max Kaiser is calling for $220,000 this year. He was correct with his call for $28,000 for 2020.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmEtVoF63IM

I've been in and out of GBTC many times over the last year and it's a big reason my IRA was up 198% last year (and already up over 10% this year in just 4 days). You just have to be nimble!

Personally I think Lyn Alden's prediction of around $100,000 by December is more reasonable, but who knows, FOMO is a powerful thing.

 

[Bullitt]

I bet a couple months of lunch money on bitcoin and I'm up some 325% in less than six months.... come on, let's get real here. I don't like gambling and I feel like this is all it is.

There are ZERO fundamentals on how can anyone properly value it. Risk is gone, 100,000, 140,000, 250,000, what difference does it make? I know accredited investors are getting involved, but the reality is, most are only investing 1-2% of their assets into it. For some reason the retail investor takes that as a green light to go 20-50% into it.

Does anybody even buy stuff with it anymore?

I still think North Korea or China will find way to infiltrate the blockchain and poison or rob the system. All the bulls ever say is it can't be hacked or manipulated. Again, no risk here at all. Just buy it, throw a huge smile on your face while going on CNBC trying to convince the serfs to buy some.

 

[Frixxxx]

I bet a couple months of lunch money on bitcoin and I'm up some 325% in less than six months.... come on, let's get real here. I don't like gambling and I feel like this is all it is.

There are ZERO fundamentals on how can anyone properly value it. Risk is gone, 100,000, 140,000, 250,000, what difference does it make? I know accredited investors are getting involved, but the reality is, most are only investing 1-2% of their assets into it. For some reason the retail investor takes that as a green light to go 20-50% into it....

I hear you, but the security of the blockchain is what is valuable. If it is hack proof, you always have it, you can't be robbed. The technology is what is of value. What's the difference of gold prices and it's value against currency. Since we've left the standard, why do these prices fluctuate drastically when economic turns North or South?

I use blockchain technology for data on systems to provide me evidence of providence and pedigree of data to ensure accuracy.

Currency is tied to nations. Blockchain isn't. The debate starts when you take value away from governments and give it to the people.

 

[Bullitt]

It sure does have a good story. I've got nothing against the technology, it's just that trees don't grow to the sky and there's no such thing as a sure thing. Fans of "fill in the blank" Coin promise both and aren't afraid to tell you they have their entire little pink piggie bank invested in it.

Ethereum technology looks promising. Any time a middle man is cut out it benefits both sides. It's also time to take our internet infrastructure to a new level. We're still playing with tech from roughly 20 years ago.

ETH smart contracts: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/bitcoin-cryptocurrencies/27724-ethereum-post650226.html#post650226

Bitcoin really has no use except to hoard and hope to sell higher. That is evidenced by three years of stagnant transactions per day.

 

[Bullitt]

Bitcoin down almost 15% from yesterday's big high. Seems coinbase is having trouble right now, likely due to increased site traffic.



Don't worry folks, it's going to 100,000, so this just a small bump. Buy the dip in the parabolic rise up because the future for bitcoin is perfect. Nothing could possibly go wrong from here. (Sarcasm, ROFL).

 

[bmneveu]

Don't worry folks, it's going to 100,000, so this just a small bump. Buy the dip in the parabolic rise up because the future for bitcoin is perfect. Nothing could possibly go wrong from here. (Sarcasm, ROFL).

Hey now, people were sarcastically saying it would go to $40K only a few months ago!

 

[Bullitt]

Cramer gives his opinion. He also added that he wouldn't buy it over 20,000. I'm guessing he bought at 20,000 and sold at 40,000.

“the more people who give it [bitcoin] a higher price … the more likely it is that there will be more people come in.”

Cramer additionally shared: “I sold enough bitcoin yesterday to pay for my initial stake, which is what I would do if it’s a stock. I take out my basis and then I let it run.” He added: “I am not going to look at bitcoin again. I’m fine with bitcoin until it comes all the way back to where I bought it and then I will refigure, maybe buy it again.”

https://news.bitcoin.com/mad-moneys-jim-cramer-how-to-invest-in-bitcoin/

 

[Bullitt]

High profile hedge fund starts crypto fund. Looks like the fund will consist of around 10% of funds under management.

SkyBridge, a fund of hedge funds, on Monday announced it had started the Skybridge Bitcoin Fund with $310 million in assets under management invested from its $3 billion flagship fund.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...ci-launches-cryptocurrency-fund-idUSKBN29921E

 

[Tsunami]

Cramer speaks of bitcoin's scarcity as a reason for it's increasing popularity. Speaking of scarcity, an estimated 20% of bitcoin is lost forever due to careless owners...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/technology/bitcoin-passwords-wallets-fortunes.html

I'll stick with trading GBTC, riding the waves. My latest trade was just one day, buying 1000 yesterday at 36.31 and selling today at 38.50. Cha ching.
I've never held it more than 15 days, and usually it's only 2 or 3 days, and somehow I've never yet been caught up in a big plunge, knock on wood.

It's super stretched right now, way above the Bollinger bands still, so I sure wouldn't just blindly hold it right now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBTC&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51240362986&a=693978923

 

[Bullitt]

Speaking of scarcity, an estimated 20% of bitcoin is lost forever due to careless owners...

I remember hearing that around the last big bubble ramp and I believe it.

Also, there's an issue of ownership. Think all those large scale, nation funded miners who have had access to free energy the past five years.

About 2% of the anonymous ownership accounts that can be tracked on the cryptocurrency’s blockchain control 95% of the digital asset, according to researcher Flipside Crypto.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...wnership-concentration-is-rising-during-rally

 

[bmneveu]

I'll stick with trading GBTC, riding the waves. My latest trade was just one day, buying 1000 yesterday at 36.31 and selling today at 38.50. Cha ching.
I've never held it more than 15 days, and usually it's only 2 or 3 days, and somehow I've never yet been caught up in a big plunge, knock on wood.

It's super stretched right now, way above the Bollinger bands still, so I sure wouldn't just blindly hold it right now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBTC&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51240362986&a=693978923

Lots of other crypto stocks these days now too. MARA, RIOT, CLSK. The list goes on. PayPal and Visa and JP Morgan are some large caps with skin in the game now too.

 

[Tsunami]

The quantity and quality of the stuff Lyn Alden pumps out amazes me. Bitcoin is just a small piece of the things she covers.
Here's another good article she put out last week on bitcoin, and it's a good read for anyone with any interest in it, in particular those that liken it to a Ponzi scheme...

https://www.swanbitcoin.com/why-bitcoin-is-not-a-ponzi-scheme-point-by-point/

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

other than getting bitcoins, is there anything gained from the computers solving the math "puzzles" ?

I get that you need to make it increasingly more difficult to 'mine' them, but seems like a massive energy and computer power waste. You can't even buy medium-level and up graphic cards anymore. I just sold some old computer components to a guy who mines Ethereum and thought about selling him my current graphics card (4 years) and upgrading, but when I went to check prices, it would cost me more to buy a similar-powered card for what I paid for it in 2016. They are going for way over MSRP and being resold for even more!

 

[Tsunami]

other than getting bitcoins, is there anything gained from the computers solving the math "puzzles" ?

I get that you need to make it increasingly more difficult to 'mine' them, but seems like a massive energy and computer power waste. You can't even buy medium-level and up graphic cards anymore. I just sold some old computer components to a guy who mines Ethereum and thought about selling him my current graphics card (4 years) and upgrading, but when I went to check prices, it would cost me more to buy a similar-powered card for what I paid for it in 2016. They are going for way over MSRP and being resold for even more!

Not that I know of. Yep, it's definitely not an efficient/green way of creating a new commodity (it's not really a currency at this point and never will be, think of it more like digital gold, and if you read Lyn's article she discusses this, that the creator envisioned bitcoin as a commodity, not a currency). But then again look at how much diesel and equipment and manhours the guys on Gold Rush burn all summer long to get their few ounces of gold. So it's similar in that regard, and the amount of energy poured into creating bitcoin could be looked at as a way to justify it's monetary "value".

 

[bmneveu]

other than getting bitcoins, is there anything gained from the computers solving the math "puzzles" ?

I get that you need to make it increasingly more difficult to 'mine' them, but seems like a massive energy and computer power waste. You can't even buy medium-level and up graphic cards anymore. I just sold some old computer components to a guy who mines Ethereum and thought about selling him my current graphics card (4 years) and upgrading, but when I went to check prices, it would cost me more to buy a similar-powered card for what I paid for it in 2016. They are going for way over MSRP and being resold for even more!

Miners also process the transactions.

 

[Bullitt]

a massive energy and computer power waste.

Even if you can get your hands on a powerful graphics card, the amount you'll spend in energy and cooling costs will never offset the money spent.

The majority of miners are in China where they often get "free" electricity from state run (coal) entities. It's a whole system with involvement to the top of the CCP chain.

One thing I'll agree with gold bugs on is they have a physical thing. When the apocalypse/meltdown/collapse that they talk about comes, at least they'll have their gold coins. When it ends, so does electricity and so does bitcoin. Personally, I think the 2nd amendment is a much better option than any of the above if you're planning on the end of times.

RE: Ponzi scheme. Probably not Bitcoin or Ethereum, but what about the thousands of alt-coins out there just doing it for an initial offering?

 

[Bullitt]

I'd bet there is some entity in the world that can break an IronKey, but not for this kind of usage.

Stefan Thomas, a German-born programmer in San Francisco, told The New York Times this week that he forgot the password to his IronKey, a secure hard drive with the keys to his wallet with 7,002 Bitcoins, or about $US220 million ($280 million) worth. IronKey gives users 10 guesses to get their password right before encrypting the hard drive’s contents; Thomas has two more tries left.

https://stockhead.com.au/tech/a-ger...ronkey-password-or-hell-lose-280m-in-bitcoin/

 

[Bullitt]

Any thoughts on technical setup right now? Bullish pennant breakdown or still intact? Support at 30,000?

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Even if you can get your hands on a powerful graphics card, the amount you'll spend in energy and cooling costs will never offset the money spent.

The majority of miners are in China where they often get "free" electricity from state run (coal) entities. It's a whole system with involvement to the top of the CCP chain.

One thing I'll agree with gold bugs on is they have a physical thing. When the apocalypse/meltdown/collapse that they talk about comes, at least they'll have their gold coins. When it ends, so does electricity and so does bitcoin. Personally, I think the 2nd amendment is a much better option than any of the above if you're planning on the end of times.

RE: Ponzi scheme. Probably not Bitcoin or Ethereum, but what about the thousands of alt-coins out there just doing it for an initial offering?

Oh I didn't want the card for mining, I want it to play games lol. But I guess the idea is, even if its not profitable to mine now, you are hoping the coins will be worth much more later, and then it would have been very cost effective. The guy I sold my parts to said he had 26 GPUs and was getting "a little over 1 Ethereum a month". So at current prices, it would take 1-2 years to get your money back for just the GPUs

Miners also process the transactions.

I knew the mining resources was what does the transactions, but surely that is a small percentage, right? Otherwise NEEDING this massing computational power just to have the system running would seem like a massive downfall.

 

[tsptalk]

Some reasons for concern although the one thing it may have going for it now is that it has been rebounding just before testing the 50-day EMA in the last few months.

Longer term it looks like the 200-day EMA may want back in the picture...