Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think making too much money is the far better problem to have than making to little;)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Henry To:
"Despite the recent surge in volume, the NYSE short interest ratio remains elevated - declining only 0.1 to hit a level of 6.1 in the latest reading. Given that this reading remains elevated, chances are that the market will not top out until we see the NYSE short interest ratio decline to a level below 5 or less".

The Dow Jones Utility average closed at a new all-time high today. Wow!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Looks like we just hit an air pocket. Went in and liquidated my position in BW to garner some cash in case we head lower - got to buy'em when they are on sale. I must say I can enjoy this volatility - simply have to remain nimble.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Of particular interest now are the two thrust components - the PMO and PBI. Note that the PMO upside crossover has already occurred (on the day of the giant one-day rally); however, while the PBI still remains below its 32-EMA, it has closed the gap. If the PBI does cross to the upside, the T/TM for the S&P 500 will switch to a buy signal, but my advice would be to not anticipate. Wait for it to happen".

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0330.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Of particular interest now are the two thrust components - the PMO and PBI. Note that the PMO upside crossover has already occurred (on the day of the giant one-day rally); however, while the PBI still remains below its 32-EMA, it has closed the gap. If the PBI does cross to the upside, the T/TM for the S&P 500 will switch to a buy signal, but my advice would be to not anticipate. Wait for it to happen".

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0330.html
Click to expand...


Birchtree,

I always enjoy looking over some TA work from Carl. Henry and Bob remain long, so I remain Bullish long-term. I posted this link in the Bull Pen.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

VirginiaBob said:
If anyone knew for sure, then they'd be as rich as me in one day. Too bad nobody does.
Click to expand...


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Re: Birchtree's account talk

so basically, the experts are worse than random guessing at 49.3%. Even the ones that are better than that, thier are equally as many worse than that, confirming that it is just a random crapshoot.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birchtree, Good Trading, you are beating the "C" Fund by .20%, good moves!!:D
Norman
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's only because I have a 6% position in the I fund. I plan to do a little more dollar cost averaging on the way up.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

GO GATORS!

The S&P 500 Energy Index on a relative basis has been in what is known as a high level consolidation and the MACD price momentum indicator has higher lows and gave another buy signal. Marathon Oil that was added last year is really pulling its weight on this one.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A few choice succinct words on productivity from the TWSJ 3/31 by Gregg Ip.

Turning points in productivity are notoriously difficult to spot, and today's trends are subject to fierce debate among economists, an argument fueled by the difficulty of predicting technological innovations and the ways busiuness harnesses them.

Productivity grew 2.6% a year for the quarter-century following World War II, then slowed to an average of 1.5% a year from 1973 to 1995 for reasons that are still debated by scholars. Productivity growth then accelerated to 2.6% from 1995 to 2000. The precise cause of the spurt remains in dispute, but it is widely believed to have been triggered by changes in technology and businesses' embrace of them.

Then, to the surprise of most economists who had expected it to slow, productivity growth further accelerated even as the economy sank into recession and then struggled to resume growing. By early 2004, productivity was growing at better than a 4%. But productivity growth has slowed steadily since, falling to just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a year earlier, the most recent data available.

One possibility is that this sort of slowdown is normal at this stage of the expansion, now in its sixth year. When the economy first emerges from recession, businesses expand production with the same number of workers so productivity surges. As the expansion matures, firms often hire in anticipation of future sales, slowing productivity growth.
 
Japan Minister Predicts Faster Economic Growth

From TWSJ by Takashi Nakamichi on 3/27/07

Japan's economic minister predicted that the country's economic expansion will accelerate slightly in the coming fiscal year, driven by brisk business performance and a gradual pickup in consumer spending. In a sign that she is confident in the prospects of Japan's stamping out deflation soon, Hikroko Ota also said year yo year changes in prices will stay in positive territory for the financial year starting in April.

For the next fiscal year, we expect to see a real growth rate of 2%. We're expecting improvements in the corporate sector to continue in the next fiscal year amid world economic growth. With Japanese companies stepping up hiring of full-time workers, the private sector is expected to recover gradually as well. The forecast rate, which is adjusted for price changes, is higher than an expected 1.9% increase for this fiscal year. Remarks by Ms. Ota signal that the government is confident that a slowdown in the U.S. economy won't drag down the Japanese economy.

China's retail sales in February rose 16.9% from a year earlier, the second-highest monthly figure on record, the Natioinal Bureau of Statistics said. The underlying trend in China's retail sales shows domestic consumption remains resilient despite moves by Beijing to cool overheated sectors of its economy, namely fixed-asset investment and exports. The pace of growth in China's retail sales in February picked up following a 12.7% year to year gain in January. February's growth was the highest since May 2004. For the first two months of this year, retail sales were up 14.7%, faster than the 13.7% rise recorded for 2006.

I put this information in my thread because I knew ayla wouldn't have to read it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"For the sub-prime woes to widen to the overall economy, Americans who don't have low credit scores will have to start struggling to payoff money that they also borrowed. A hint of that showed up in a report by the Mortgage Bankers Association this week that said prime fixed-rayte mortgage delinquencies rose to 2.27 percent in the fourth quarter from 2.10 percent in the third quarter. Yardeni expects the economy will rebound to 3 percent growth by year's end as consumers continue to spend, making a recession 'not possible' this year. Since the stock market 'sees' into the future and anticipates recessions and other major problems a good 6-9 months in advance....." "Also worth pointing out is that past bear market and economic recessions have always been preceded by rate of change slow downs in aggregate money supply. For the market to implode from here would be a precedent in the face of rising liquidity. See the graph that comes with this article -

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0331.html
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like a few of those supreme court justices might be long on corn futures.

c855
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

With the idea that Primary wave 3 is still in its early stages of unwinding to the upside as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks, we will see many multiple 3 digit Dow up days in a row in the future. The SPX breadth MCO is probably at the highest level again over the last 52 weeks. This new high then in the SPX breadth MCO supports the idea that this continuing advance that started last summer will indeed move the price pattern to new all-time highs. The February high was at 1459.68 - we could test it tomorrow. Keeping in mind that the center point of three will have the most amount of participation by both breadth and volume. Many don't understand what a 3rd wave can do to ones technical work. Be right and sit tight. Just keep the sub-primers at bay and keep the bears believing that this move is a cyclical bull within a secular bear.
 
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