Birchtree's Account Talk

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a speculator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money."

Birch, I keep reading about sticking to your system and it will pay out in the long run. It is difficult to stick to a system when it doesn't seem to be working. But, no matter how I mess with numbers to test different types of systems, they mostly pay off in the long run, even after losing during some periods. The systems that do the worst in the long run are ones that try to react quickly to get in or out of the market.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This looks like a big K day. I moved the Mrs out of her international fund 100% to a large cap fund 100%. From AEPGX to PYODX. We now have to wait 7 days before any round trip can take place. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gesus, Mary and Joseph - it has finally happened. The NYSE ratio-adjusted A/D (RA-AD) line record high set in March 1959 has been broken today. This is a 48 year record that has fallen. Now guess what is going to happen? Because we are still in the 1st quadrant of the 4 year cycle, the price patterns continue to get stronger and stronger - not needing as much down time to regroup. We are now going to change the longer term Elliott count from being 3rd wave Intermediate degree to one being of Primary degree. So keep in mind what this will mean to the longer term price patterns. The "Primary" label is that of many years to decades and this is now Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3, the centerpoint of this move. Snort and double Snort.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The "Primary" label is that of many years to decades and this is now Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3, the centerpoint of this move. Snort and double Snort.

Sounds awesome. What does that mean for cycle wave 3? How long does cycle wave 3 represent (days, weeks, months, years)? Is it in the beginning of cycle wave 3, middle, end?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In terms of Elliott Wave this would make the current advance from the 2002 lows a third wave total structure from the 1970's to 1980's lows. That being of "Primary" degree or maybe of "Cycle" degree, but it would eliminate the label of "Intermediate." And with it, this current price advance would not be a "Primary 5" advance, it would be the center point of Primary 3. We know this because third waves will always have the greatest breadth and volume expansions compared with like time periods. So if the RA NYAD takes out the 1959 highs (which happened today) that would mean that the bottom seen either in 1932 or 1937 (depending on how you count it) would be part of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave 3 and that topped out in the 1960's. Primary wave 3, therefore, would either have its staring point in 1974 or 1982 depending on which chart you look at. This would then open the door for a Primary wave 4 in the decade of 2010-2020, then Primary wave 5 after that. The NYSE RA-AD line is serving as a measure of liquidity and the willingness of that liquidity to be risked in equities. Therefore, the daily RA-AD line penetrating its all-time high of 1959 is telling us there is a lot of money out there willing to be risked in equities. Be right and sit tight because the best it yet to come.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If this move continues to be the epicenter of wave 3 of 3 up right now, we should not only take out the 2003 MCSUM high, but we will make new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted MCSUM and we would make new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD, and if this were to occur then this 3 of 3 up could then be labeled as Primary wave 3 to the upside. Remem ber, it's the NYSE group of stocks that are on the 3 of 3 watch, not the secondaries. This is no monkey business - the average trader or timer has no idea about technical analysis, all they may know is trend lines, congestion zones, very simple stuff. The idea of a challenge of the MCSUM highs seen back in 2003 bears watching - I think we are headed much, much higher.

 

[Remo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I noticed you kept referring to this "Elliot" person and were bringing up some cool sounding Jargon so I did a little research and found a great Link that talks about his Genius-ness in Layman's terms. If you don't mind me jumping into your thread and recommending this web page, I believe many of us amateurs will find it beneficial and good reading.:
http://www.market-harmonics.com/elliott_wave1.htm

Remo

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Remo,

By all means several heads are always better than one. Appreciate your input. I'll read the link too.

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So, how 'bout that S&P500. .85% WOW!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A small peek into the volatility of my oceanic account: when the Dow went up 87 points the other day we took in $16K, when it dropped 118 yesterday we gave back $7K. I'm prepared to give up the rest today if necessary. Now that I have stumbled onto the holy grail I've gained more confidence in staying in front of the train.

Here's the grail: The wealthier you are, the more you will be able to withstand short-term shocks in the equity markets and focus on making long term investments.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So Birch is it time to buy the fear?...

 

[Pilgrim]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So Birch is it time to buy the fear?...

A proposed definition of "permabull": When asked if its time to buy, the answer is always "yes". No matter when the question is posed, no matter what is happening. Even in the middle of Armageddon, with fire and brimstone raining down on the earth, with plagues of locusts stinging and biting, with the armies of darkness sweeping away all that is right and good, the true permabull will say "Buy the dip!!"

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At this point in the cycle of intermediate 3 of Primary 3, the bigger risk is being out and not being in. This market has the potential to be explosive, but it will wait to take as few participants as possible for the ride.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At this point in the cycle of intermediate 3 of Primary 3, the bigger risk is being out and not being in. This market has the potential to be explosive, but it will wait to take as few participants as possible for the ride.

Yup. I'm getting impatient waiting for this explosion. I won't be out of the market for a while. If we have a few more big up days, followed by some drops, that should scare the remaining few out during the beginnings of the explosion. The people who think they are sidestepping some down days may be surprised by the continuing rise - then afraid to get in, because they'll think the market is overbought. While I wait for that, I'll be dancing around the C,S,I - no G or F for a while.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Here's the grail: The wealthier you are, the more you will be able to withstand short-term shocks in the equity markets and focus on making long term investments.

You will be even wealthier if you get your bloody carcass out from under the train while its scraping your character off and then wait for the next one to stay in front of.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

On January 24,'07 the market broke through the 1959 resistance on the daily RA NYAD line - a 48 year top. It's not at all unusual when important points are penetrated for the market to rest before it tries again to break that resistance/support zone. So we will regroup our energy and eventually go through with gusto - in the meantime I'll be watching the character of the potential 9 month bottoming process - I think it'll be a light bottom. Looks like we may have a rally as I speak....love those trains.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gosh, I have to say it one more time to remind myself. The market will do everything, and I do mean everything, to keep the majority from participating, bull markets do not like company, only at the top. The market also likes to keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The internal rebound Friday left the oceanic account with a 7K gain - balancing out the loss from the previous day. This leaves me in a fairly good position for the week. I'm not going to achieve my $100K goal unless next week is momentous. Only time will tell. Some studies have shown that when both houses of Congress change control during a mid-term election, the equity markets historically have rallied by 20% (on average) in the following 12 months. That would look like 12,600 + 2520 = 15,120. Well 2003 was a 3,000 point gain, so why not. We've had two years or more of base over base so now let's see if Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3 can take control and hit some targets previously mentioned by guys like Don Hays, Don Wolanchuk, and Harry Dent all prognosticating a Dow of 30,000. Dow upside price objectives under such conditions can and will be quite high with those targets having a very high probability. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

NYUD (Daily) Cumulative volume at 20666.04; new all-time highs.
NYAD (Daily) Cumulative at 173628.00; new all-time highs.
If the NYSE breadth MCO does not hold above the lows of 1/5/07 at -50, this would confirm that a longer lasting correction would be in force. So far so good at only -8.02 for this week. I'm not going to get all beared up until I see at least one top below one top on the NYAD and the NYUD volume. I did move the Mrs. out of her international fund on the highs and into a large cap fund for further growth this year. She is still sitting on her small cap fund.
The 19 day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 39 EMA are still nicely separated. The NYSE breadth MCSUM has found sideways support at +676.26, but eventually may seek support at +500 level. This would be a good level to launch the next rally leg from. The NYSE breadth MCO looks to be in the process of constructing a bottom in which a price advance can be sustained. In a 3 of 3 scenario the NYSE breadth MCO should provide a higher low than that of earlier this month.
With a high reading of +676.26 on the NYSE breadth MCSUM it's unlikely that a trending price move to the downside is underway. Significant price tops (followed by declines exceeding 10%) do not coincide with the NYSE A/D line new highs. On 1/26/07 the NYSE cumulative A/D line achieved another multi-decade high. And if you haven't heard or even care, the NYSE daily cumulative ratio-adjusted (RA) A/D line did finally break it's March 3, 1959 resistance mark. This move to new all-time highs on the ratio-adjusted (RA) NYAD changes the current Elliott Dow count from being that of Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wavw 5 to Intermediate wave 3 to Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3 to theupside. This set of circumstances only comes along once in a lifetime and I'm in up to my hair line and fully prepared to make some very serious money. If this move continues to be the epicenter of wave 3 of 3 up right now, we will take out the 2003 MCSUM high of +1600 - you can count on it. We are slowly approaching what is known as the point of recognition. Double Snort.

 

[dell]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Double Snorff !!