Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dell,

Unfortunately when I lose money I lose big money. May'05=$138,000 and June'06=$120,000. But through patience and due diligence I always get it back and usually add insult to injury by buying on the lows. At the July'06 bottom I pushed in $98,000 which is working overtime for me. I also spent another nice chunk of change on our last 158 point drop. Buy'em when everyone else is scared - no fear here. I'm just gettin started to enhance my collection of wall flowers. Jingle Bells.

I also got clipped to the tune of about $34,000 in my tugboat TSP account - but thanks to well timed DCAs those wounds are also healed and I'm set to push $100,000 for this year. Hope to do even better in 2007.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Where is it posted, I can't seem to find it? DUH!:embarrest:

Good info, Stock market analysis for dummies like me!:embarrest: Thanks
http://investor.sacc.com/Daily-Stock-Market-Barometer.cfm#Definitions

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"You've got to go out on a limb sometimes because that's where the fruit is." Will Rogers

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Why are option prices, as measured by the CBOE Options Volatility Index (VIX), so low? Because in their desperation to eke out extra returns in this high-liquidity environment, institutions are willing to sell options (which give the buyers the right to buy or sell stocks at a set price) against the stocks they own for very little money. Cash has rarely been so easy to come by in the financial markets as it is now. And this excess liquidity is the source for all sorts of oddities in the market that otherwise defy explanation.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE breadth MCSUM is now above a longer term key resistance point, and price corrections should be contained - it's hard for price to move lower the higher the MCSUM is. At +1242, it had taken out two resistance levels, with the next hurdle being the +1487 high posted February, 2005. We are beginning to break out on the MCSUM long tern chart. The declining tops line from 2004 and 2005 will be penetrated. We are less than 5000 data points now from going to new all-time highs on the RA-NYAD, those being the highs of 1959. In terms of Elliott Wave this would make the current advance from the 2002 lows a third wave total structure from 1970's to 1980's lows, that being of "Primary" degree or maybe of "Cycle" degree. That would eliminate the label of "intermediate". And with it, this current price advance would not be a "Primary 5" advance, it would be the center point of Primary 3. We know this because third waves will always have the greatest breadth and volume expansion compared with like time periods. So if the RA-NYAD takes out the 1959 highs that would mean that the bottom seen either in 1932 or 1937 (depending on how you count it) would be partof Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave 3 and that topped out in the 1960s. Primary wave 3, therefore, would either have its starting point in 1974 or 1982 depending on which chart you look at. This would then open the door for a Primary wave 4 in the decade of 2010-2020, then Primary 5 up after that - and I'll be dead before that terminates. The granchildren will keep the money and their individual stocks growing. Jingle Bells.

Now you all do know to use your own due diligence - this is just how I see the events unfolding and I plot my stratigies accordingly.

 

[atcsat64]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now you all do know to use your own due diligence - this is just how I see the events unfolding and I plot my stratigies accordingly.

Boy, am I glad you added that fine print to the end, Perma!! I guess there are some people around who would tend to mis-use the information and opinions provided in these forums and might occasionally make a bad money move and maybe even blame or hold contempt for someone for forcing this free information and opinions upon them and maybe retaliate with some sizzling keyboard strokes and hasty exits or something.

Or maybe not! Go Gators!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nah, no body 'round here like that. We're all cool as cucumbers.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Henry To: While it's safe to say that the magnitude of the market rally this autum has caught investors by surprise, we continue to believe that those of the market's four largest constituencies (namely, hedge funds, foreign investors, and retail investors) have not yet fully participated in the market's strength. What has been curious about the market's strength has been that retail investors are still net sellers of domestic equity mutual funds. We view this as a major positive for the sustainability of the rally. Perhaps the best measure of sentiment may be the market's Valuation, and, in this regard, the rise in the major indices has failed to keep pace with the strength in earnings - multiples have continued to contract despite the declines in long term interest rates. It may seem too good to be true, but stocks and bonds appear to be discounting the equivalent of investment nirvana for 2007 - stronger growth and lower inflation. The Fed is still talking tough, but we believe economic will slow enough to provide the impetus for the Fed to ease and earnings multiples to rise next year. Silver Bells.

 

[MIController]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've always notice that you do fairly well with selecting your choices in TSP. Do you post your transactions (TSP Interfund Changes) on the Members Forum? Just curious.

Charlie

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've always notice that you do fairly well with selecting your choices in TSP. Do you post your transactions (TSP Interfund Changes) on the Members Forum? Just curious.

Charlie

Your in for it now .Tell him Birch.

 

[CountryBoy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yeah, I've been waiting for Birch to explain also.

CB

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yeah, I've been waiting for Birch to explain also.

CB

It's simple really. Over a long period of time(5-10 years), if one never makes a move, one will always be right, because the markets will eventually go up.

Am I right Birch? You don't make a mmove because you are afraid of being wrong?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Not exactly - I don't move much because I know I'm right and when I am wrong I depend on DCA to redeem my position. In the process of building a small insurance policy for the next blind side that comes my way - the only problem is that that blinde side may be three years away. Since first posting I've earned $3.00 gain in the C fund and that's success for me. That is with a 100% allocation and contribution - good results take time and so far I've got the dime. I'm listed in the yellow pages.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I got my Pfizer dividend reinvested at $25.17 for a 3.8% yield going forward. This company is far from being knocked out - their drug trials will resume in a different scope. PFE drug Torcetrapib was the first of a class of drugs that block the action known as CETP inhibitors, which target the cholesterol ester transfer protein that regulates how HDL helps clear bad cholesterol from the body. HDL keeps the lining of your arteries clean.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ by Chris Conkey:
U.S. labor costs have been rising at a much slower rate this year than previously thought, suggesting the nation's tight labor market is less likely to stoke inflation in the months ahead. The Labor Department reported recently that unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector - a measure of how much employees are paid to produce a single unit of output - rose at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the third quarter, less than its earlier estimate of 3.8%. In addition, the department said unit labor costs fell at a 2.4% rate during the second quarter, rather than growing at the estimated 5.4% pace.

The changes reflect a decline in employee compensation in the second quarter and a much slower rate of compensation growth in the third quarter, indicating businesses are feeling less pressure to raise prices. This is particularly good news, because the competitive labor market has recently emerged as the biggest driver of cost increases. With energy and commodity prices having receded from their peaks, labor costs now represent the most significant source of potential inflation pressures for the U.S. economy. That is especially true now, with the unemployment rate at an unusually low 4.5%, but many economists expect inflationary pressures from the labor market to weaken due to slower economic growth. Goldilocks don't eat those icicles.

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Not to defend the big Birch (as he needs little), but ya gotta understand DCA long term. When you own 100's of C-Fund shares purchased for (lets say for example) $6.00 a share bought pre-1990, and sell them off today... you'll NEVER be able to buy them back in those shear numbers. Every $6.00 share bought then is now worth $15.58 today. Do the math. DCA works if you stick with it for the entire long term duration. When you loose from a lower market... you get over on it from buying Lower Cost shares and adding to your pile.

It's simple really. Over a long period of time(5-10 years), if one never makes a move, one will always be right, because the markets will eventually go up.

Am I right Birch? You don't make a mmove because you are afraid of being wrong?

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Do you think this is due to an increase in productivity or to the slow-down in the US economy?

From TWSJ by Chris Conkey:
U.S. labor costs have been rising at a much slower rate this year than previously thought, suggesting the nation's tight labor market is less likely to stoke inflation in the months ahead. The Labor Department reported recently that unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector - a measure of how much employees are paid to produce a single unit of output - rose at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the third quarter, less than its earlier estimate of 3.8%. In addition, the department said unit labor costs fell at a 2.4% rate during the second quarter, rather than growing at the estimated 5.4% pace.

The changes reflect a decline in employee compensation in the second quarter and a much slower rate of compensation growth in the third quarter, indicating businesses are feeling less pressure to raise prices. This is particularly good news, because the competitive labor market has recently emerged as the biggest driver of cost increases. With energy and commodity prices having receded from their peaks, labor costs now represent the most significant source of potential inflation pressures for the U.S. economy. That is especially true now, with the unemployment rate at an unusually low 4.5%, but many economists expect inflationary pressures from the labor market to weaken due to slower economic growth. Goldilocks don't eat those icicles.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Surely a combination of both. If we have low and going lower inflation the Fed won't worry any longer about growth and will step in to decrease rates to save the housing consumer. Even though the consumer is lighter now on their home equity draws - they have shifted wealth creation to the stock market and spending remains intact. 2007 is going to be an excellent year for the stock market, as a matter of fact 2008 is also going to be a good year for the stock market. Oh alright, 2009 is also going to be a good year for the stock market - then 2010 is the game up year IMHO. There will definitely be some sharp and quick corrections but I view these as opportunities most of the time. A girl has to have some volatility in her relationships. I just love hot maple syrup on snow.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Biech,

This was a good clarification for 350Comm Tech, but it also substantiates the other side of the coin for me and others that are active members of TSPtalk.com. Show-me's previous posts to the effect that, although it is a riskier requires a hands-on attention span and strategy, short-term or trend-trading can really help you increase you nest-egg faster, provided that you know what you are doing. Of course, good interpretation of the right technical analysis signals is of essence! If you are not ready and willing to do be a hands-on-trader, don't do this at home! Good Luck!

Not to defend the big Birch (as he needs little), but ya gotta understand DCA long term. When you own 100's of C-Fund shares purchased for (lets say for example) $6.00 a share bought pre-1990, and sell them off today... you'll NEVER be able to buy them back in those shear numbers. Every $6.00 share bought then is now worth $15.58 today. Do the math. DCA works if you stick with it for the entire long term duration. When you loose from a lower market... you get over on it from buying Lower Cost shares and adding to your pile.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Fivetears,

I ask you forgiveness for my mistake! This post was addressed to you, and I addressed it to Birchtree. Thanks for your understanding!