Birchtree's Account Talk

[AIF]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Low bow

AIF

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ya, terrain is not conducive. A small victory would provide no advantage of gain - but only create further umbrage among his I funder cohorts. Prudence is the better part of valor. But his comments do demonstrate fallibilities. Snort.

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nice rally today Birch did you have anything to do with that? I heard you were buying today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Trust me - if I had any money I sure would have been in buying. The only way I can get cash is to take a profit and I prefer for the moment to let the profits run. I may have a takeover that I can pre-empt but it's not a done deal yet. All I can do is ride the train - heck can't even get off to go run in front of the thing. If I can get to $15.81 on the C fund I may move another 2% to the G for insurance. We'll be seeing more new all-time highs again soon.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, you've been talking alot about the 3rd wave. How in the world can you tell where the waves begin? I've done some reading, but it seems impossible to sort through all of the bombardments of sites thinking they have magic formulas.

One thing I noticed is that the first five waves are impulsive, followed by 3 corrective waves. I would definitely call the wave from 1995 to 2000 an impulsive wave. Is it the first one? or is it the 5th wave? How can you tell if we are in the impulsive waves or in the corrective ones? What if this ride up for the past few years was just the second wave of the corrective?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When you think in terms of Elliott Principles there are waves inside of waves with multiple interpretations. Here is my simple view: wave 1 was the 3000 points gained in 2003, wave 2 was the corrective 2 year base over base trading range through July this year, we are possibly now entering wave 3 of 3 or hopefully Primary wave 3 which will last for years, then you'll have corrective wave 4, followed by another impressive wave 5. I don't want to be anywhere close when wave 4 hits. Secondly I have thought for a long time that we are in back to back secular mega bull trends. Waiting on several variables for trend confirmation. One is the Dow Theory which we will have before the end of the year. How will you know when we are at the epicenter of Primary wave 3 - the world will know and the only man left standing will be The Boss. In a classic Elliott third wave to the upside there will be relentless broad participation with increasing volume and potentially a melt up. We are unwinding in what may be the greatest market rally of all time both in time and scope. I can smell the manure and it smells like money.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In a classic Elliott third wave to the upside there will be relentless broad participation with increasing volume and potentially a melt up. We are unwinding in what may be the greatest market rally of all time both in time and scope. I can smell the manure and it smells like money.

Sounds good to me! Let the melt up begin. Looking at the long term charts, there is WAY more upside to go than downside.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Wow I feel like I am reading the book of Revelations. I dont know weather to be scared or happy. It's going to take a while to digest this. I am so confused.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's been a morning shooing off the rabids - gesus I mean rabbits.

As of this morning I've gained $21,000 back from my drop of $24,000 on black Monday. We got a chance to rally this afternoon with the A/D line about even. Somebody is doing buying in the small caps so there is a possibility to pull up into positive. I'm ready for my melt up.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just checked out one of your favorite market indicators, the Dow Transports. The chart I could find goes from 1970 until today. Do you think I am reading this right?:

From the bottom of 1975 to the top in 1999 makes the first elliot wave. The second wave goes from the top of 1999 to the bottom of 2003. So now the third wave should be much longer than the first, which went on for 24 years. From the bottom of 2003 to the top of 2065?!? I'll be 89 years old before that bull slows down!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

fabijo,

You are up late - good analysis. I just wanted to mention that we had new all-time highs today in the AMEX Composite at 2069.16 and the NYSE Composite at 8969.00. There was also a new all-time high in the NYAD. The A/D line gives you the bigger picture of things and is the backbone of all analysis as it applies to the market. Divergence techniques don't usually give you the desired results if the A/D line is moving against these same divergences. The TICK is an advance / decline line. You can use 19 period EMA and 39 period EMA on any stock chart and you've created a view of the price pattern's MCSUM. The distance between these two EMA's are the actual view of the MCSUM for a price pattern being measured. The MACD is a momentum indicator and not an energy indicator, good to use for peaks and divergences from those same peaks.

As far as the dollar goes it's so easy to be a bear and much harder to go against situations of pre-ordained mentality. We may touch 80 and then begin a rally to who knows where and for how long - but I'd be cautious in 2007 regarding internationals. I may start moving my wife out in the Spring into large caps.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As far as the dollar goes it's so easy to be a bear and much harder to go against situations of pre-ordained mentality. We may touch 80 and then begin a rally to who knows where and for how long - but I'd be cautious in 2007 regarding internationals. I may start moving my wife out in the Spring into large caps.

Are you expecting the dollar to rebound in the spring? If so, why?

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I've been looking, but I cannot find any info about MCSUM. What is it?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Elliott Wave everything continues to a point to a large third wave up and is now in progress on a larger scale and as we move higher and higher volatility will start to get wilder and wilder. We will know when we enter the center point of this 3rd wave when the volatility indexes start to wake up. The VIX has been working well with an 89 day moving average - a demarcation point between an uptrend and that of a downtrend - look what happened on black Monday - we touched it but did not move above it, which meant that the current uptrend was still not fully complete.

Fabijo,

MCO is the McClellan Oscillator annd measures the amount of force in which money flow is moving, the higher it moves, the faster the direction.
MCSUM is the McClellan Summation Index and it will show you the degree and the firection of this same speed. The MCO will show you the speed in which money is moving in or out of the market. The volume oscillators will show you how much in the way of push you have.
The MCSUM can give you a fairly good percentage of sucess all dependent on how high or how low it is from its' zero line. If the MCSUM is above the zero line - the bulls are in control. If the MCSUM is below the zero line - bears are in control. 60% of your trading success ratio is based on whose in control of the pattern of money flow. The larger the distance from the zero line that the MCSUM is then this increases or reduces your probability ratio even further. We are churning now and it is difficult for a price decline to begin to trend, the MCSUM is going to have to be closer to the zero line. The MC~SUM is still very high above +1000.
During all bull trends you will see sharp and short corrections to keep the majority from participating. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Two very important factors that make up a 3 of 3 structure - the first is that you will see the greatest plurality of volume and breadth of A/D data (advance/decline) leading up to the center point. The second thing is 3rd waves are 3rd waves because the maajority recognizes the prevailing trend of the price pattern. It becomes a great ride - you just have to stay on. We've been impulsing higher which are vigorous moves in the direction of the trend with brief pauses of the pattern for consolidation. Today is a prime example.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for the info on the MCSUM, Birchtree. Today hasn't scared me out of the C Fund yet. I'm looking at the longer picture. Since 2003-2004, the S&P spent most of its time within a tight trading range. If it breaks out of that range, it will break out on the up, not on the down.

I need to add a sig to my name, clarifying that I have no idea what I'm talking about.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Are you expecting the dollar to rebound in the spring? If so, why?

You never answered the question.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Z-man,

Peek at bear cave post #60. It's best to look at the dollar on a long term graph - and from a contrarian approach we are close to a rebound rally.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2006/1201.html

There's nothing yet suggesting that we're close to finishing this advance, money on the sidelines is plentiful. The VIX remains low and this smells like an Elliott Primary wave now and if we get new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD, it will be of Primary degree. For those not familiar with Elliott labeling, the "Primary" label is that of many years to decades.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I get these types of messages all the time from companies I own.
To Our Shareholders:
Our momentum continues to be strong entering fiscal 2007, as we continue to execute our business strategy. We are very pleased with the sales and earnings contribution of the recent acquisition of the BCS Groupo. The acquisition was accretive to earnings in the firt quarter and we are optimistic the BCS will add to our bottom-line performance as the year progresses. Sales from our existingoperations, after backing out the recent acquisition, increased 19.4 percent. Sales, net earnings and diluted earnings per share for the first three months of fiscal 2007 represented the best first quarter in the Company's history.

Sales for the quarter ended September 30 improved 32.7 percent in the same period a year ago. The results for the current fiscal quarter were favorably impacted by continued strong demand across all the markets the Company serves, especially from its oil and military customers. Gross margin, as a percentage of sales, increased 1.8 percentage points to 30.9 percent from 29.1 percent in last year's comparable period. Profitability continued to improve from the implementation of cost reduction programs, a better product mix and selective price increases. Net earnings for the first quarter increased 47.7 percent.... well you get the point. This is not an outstanding company but could simply be representative of the fact that it will be a long time before we see a recession.