Birchtree's Account Talk

[ocean]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

What most people don’t see is your diversified overall portfolio. Even though you have 100% C fund all the way but I believe it is less than 1/4 of your overall wealth. Allow me to do this calculation based on your information you had provided in your thread earlier.

1. Your TSP balance: estimated of $450K
2. Your wife retirement fund: more than your TSP, say: $550K which is invested in international funds as you mentioned before.
3. Your oceanic portfolio of more than $1 M which is in over 50 stocks and earning dividend.

I am not talking about other investment such as properties etc. With more than $2M in your portfolio in this mix, I think you are just fine and you are entitled to stay in 100% of C forever (if you wish).

Just like one says, if I have your money, I don’t need to work.

Just my 2 cents..

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ocean,

You are fairly precise - but even with a $2M portfolio that ain't no money. There are 176 individual stocks in the portfolio with most producing dividend income that currently is reinvested. I'm searching for some cooler climate for the summer in North Carolina and the land is averaging $500,000 and the house is just as much - out of my league unless I can pull down some serious dollars over the next several years. So you see, even $2M won't go far.

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Pill,
This is for you.

A Hambone participant I used to know regularly remined me how bearish insider trading was and as usual without qualification. Out his a$$ so to speak. The majority of insider transactions tend to be sales, which often don't reflect executives views of their stocks. Brokers typically advise executives with a lot of wealth tied up in company stock to diversify by selling some at regular intervals, and such sales programs are automated, with no further input from the executive.

Moreover, insider purchases also have gone up in recent months, especially at large household-name companies. That historically has been an upbeat sign, because executives who put up their own money to buy their companies' shares are among the most well informed people regarding those businesses prospects.

Together, the activity makes for a ratio of sales to purchases of 11.4, meaning there was $11.40 in stock sold for every $1 of stock bought by insiders. While that's a lot more selling than buying the latest data is viewed optimistically, highlighting the buying. Given that sales always far exceed buys, any sales to purchase ratio under 20 is a bullish indicator. Insiders are saying now is a good time to increase ownership exposure.

The sell/buy ratio for large-cap stocks was 10.77 in August, indicating the least amount of selling activity in that sector of the market since early 2002. And not every sector of the market is as appreciated by insiders: Mid-cap stocks posted a sell/buy ratio of 31.26 in August. And small-cap stocks were essentially sending a neutral signal at 21.48. FWIW. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As the world turns - new all-time highs yesterday on the NYAD. We may possibly already be in the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle. Just the opposite of a fourth quadrant that has the most negative influence. The Dow volume MCSUM is now at +1390, this would suggest that we will challenge the all-time highs on the Dow during this price sequence. Lots of trapped bears will probably provide a floor and shallow retrace. Be right and sit tight. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Crissakes it's not my fault but Henry says "We can have a 1994 to 1995 scenario where the prices for growth stocks would just go up every week - especially since they have been underperforming for the last four years. I see retail investors coming back in droves before we top out - and I also see the S&P 500 making an all-time high as well." It's good occasionally to have confirmation. If you haven't learned by now you never will. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From my friends at MLPF&S, Technical Research Analyst, Mary Bartels.

"In our view, new recovery highs on the DJIA and S&P 500 are unlikely to be confirmed by most technical indicators such as new 52-week highs, volume, or momentum. Recent volume reflected more selling pressure than buying pressure, which is a negative sign, and the new 52-week hughs indicator has not improved. All that suggests that any rally is likely to weaken during the coming weeks and that any new highs would probably be unsustainable. We still expect a fall correction that could total 15 to 20% peak to trough on the broader market averages. We would view such a correction as a buying opportunity."

IMHO if you are an ardent G funder this might be worthwhile information. However, on the other hand if you are an aggressive investor it should go in one ear and out the other. The 4 year cycle has passed and a stomping bull is about to get started. There are few believers and that is classic.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Your killing me! Buy, buy, buy, and your "friends" are telling you that you are going to lose 15-20% before the market rallies again.:blink: Am I reading that wrong? Wouldn't a aggressive investor take this advise/commentary and preserve capital to buy at a lower price?

I just do not get it.:blink: 15-20% is a lot of money to the down and it would be a bonus to the plus.:nuts:

From my friends at MLPF&S, Technical Research Analyst, Mary Bartels.

"In our view, new recovery highs on the DJIA and S&P 500 are unlikely to be confirmed by most technical indicators such as new 52-week highs, volume, or momentum. Recent volume reflected more selling pressure than buying pressure, which is a negative sign, and the new 52-week hughs indicator has not improved. All that suggests that any rally is likely to weaken during the coming weeks and that any new highs would probably be unsustainable. We still expect a fall correction that could total 15 to 20% peak to trough on the broader market averages. We would view such a correction as a buying opportunity."

IMHO if you are an ardent G funder this might be worthwhile information. However, on the other hand if you are an aggressive investor it should go in one ear and out the other. The 4 year cycle has passed and a stomping bull is about to get started. There are few believers and that is classic.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Showme,

What you don't get is that everyone has an opinion. I don't necessarily believe MER - even though I read what they say. If anything we might see a 15 to 20% rally instead - if it can go down it certainly can go up. Do you know how much negativity there is out there - it's almost down right impossible to find a bull. And that is the kind of environment I like - currently only $0.03 from achieving my yearly goal. But I will gladly take more if it comes my way - my hand is out. Snort.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Showme,

What you don't get is that everyone has an opinion. I don't necessarily believe MER - even though I read what they say. If anything we might see a 15 to 20% rally instead - if it can go down it certainly can go up. Do you know how much negativity there is out there - it's almost down right impossible to find a bull. And that is the kind of environment I like - currently only $0.03 from achieving my yearly goal. But I will gladly take more if it comes my way - my hand is out. Snort.

I get the opinion part but your always of the opinion that the market will continue to bullsville and posted something the complete opposite.

If you don't believe them why post it and confuse me, not.

Yea, and if it can go up it can go down too. What's the point of posting a quote that you don't believe to be valid and/or in line with your beliefs. It work for me because I'm in and out a lot.

Negative news sells. Buy on the rumor sell on the news? Everyone like to look at the accident. We are attracted to the bad news for some reason. For me the key is to go with the market even thought the bad I think could happen has not.

If you make your goal will you sell? If the market starts to correct after meeting your goal. How much correction are you willing to take?

I'm not pick'n on ya but dang it your a PermaBull, so quit posting that crap.:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sorry, what's wrong with being wishy washy. There are folks that may garner some benefit from an opposite view. I'm often criticized for being too bullish. But we all make our own decisions in this game - I have my strategy and I stick to it for the time being. I have no fear of the next correction - I'm a known cycle rider. The strategy of DCA has treated me well this year. Snort.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's OK with me. Does Mary have a track record of being right or is she full of hot air?

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

.....what's wrong with being wishy washy......

I would venture to say that if you started to speak of an impending crash on a regular basis, a panic would start here the size of which has not been seen. You are the inpenetrable brick wall and nothing is going to topple you. That is your rep so if you start to change your position you need to bring them in slow and easy, with caring, and a gentle demeanor.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

SugarandSpice,

Thanks for the kind Rod McCuen words.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ah that 4-year cycle. IMHO we have seen it already put in its' low on July 18th at a Dow of 10,670 something. The peak was on May 10th at 11,670. We should now look for new all-time highs with the advance out of the coming 4 year cycle low. This is because we are in a mega trend secular bull market. The least decline ever into a 4 year cycle low from the intra-day top down into the intra-day low was 12.04% and this occurred with the decline into the 1994 4 year cycle low, which was obviously part of the greatest bull market ever. Do you doubt me? The second shallowest decline into the 4 year cycle low occurred with the drop into the 1953 4 year cycle low and there the decline was 13.79% on an intra-day basis. This occurred during the second greatest bull market ever.

This last low was a 8.46% decline. We had a single leg down into the 4 year cycle low. This would mean that we are seeing the more bullish setup unfold for the 4 year cycle. Such setups are typical in secular bull markets. As a result I expect new market highs with the next 4 year cycle advance. We are currently in the first quadrant of the up cycle move. All aboard.

 

[The_Technician]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ah that 4-year cycle. IMHO we have seen it already put in its' low on July 18th at a Dow of 10,670 something. The peak was on May 10th at 11,670. We should now look for new all-time highs with the advance out of the coming 4 year cycle low. This is because we are in a mega trend secular bull market. The least decline ever into a 4 year cycle low from the intra-day top down into the intra-day low was 12.04% and this occurred with the decline into the 1994 4 year cycle low, which was obviously part of the greatest bull market ever. Do you doubt me? The second shallowest decline into the 4 year cycle low occurred with the drop into the 1953 4 year cycle low and there the decline was 13.79% on an intra-day basis. This occurred during the second greatest bull market ever.

This last low was a 8.46% decline. We had a single leg down into the 4 year cycle low. This would mean that we are seeing the more bullish setup unfold for the 4 year cycle. Such setups are typical in secular bull markets. As a result I expect new market highs with the next 4 year cycle advance. We are currently in the first quadrant of the up cycle move. All aboard.

I can almost agree with you 100% Birchy.....

 

[Pilgrim]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Remember the oldie, "Windmills of your mind?"

"Round like a circle in a spiral
like a wheel within a wheel
never ending or beginning
on an ever spinning reel"

All so simple! Since the market followed a discernable pattern in the past, it simply MUST follow it again! How can we lose?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Pilgrim,

I never claim to be correct, all I do is put my money where my mouth is and hold onto my cheeks. 4 year cycle tops that have a failed annual cycle advance are actually the most bearish because it sets the market up for multiple legs down rather than a single drop. This in turn creates the false bottoms many people will perceive on the way down into the 4 year cycle low. Many are already thinking that the June/July lows marked the 4 year cycle low. There may be another false bottom coming in November with the next intermediate-term cycle low. Then, there should be another advance as that untermediate-term cycle begins to move up. But that low is currently expected to be another false bottom as another failed advance is expected to follow before the final 4 year cycle low is reached. We know that in a true secular bear market environment the 4 year cycle top tends to be followed by a failed annual cycle advance. With the rally, if new highs are exceeded then we should look for a single leg down into the 4 year cycle low. The average decline in a situation of failed annual cycle advances is 41%. That means that if the May high truly marked the 4 year cycle top at 11,670, then a decline of 41% would take the industrials down to 6,885. Not something I want to experience. We don't want to see any more failed annual cycle advances, but rather a strong push above the previous all-time high of 11,722.98. We want to see the more bullish setup unfold for the 4 year cycle. Such setups are typical in secular bull markets. The MUST here is that we must not have a failed annual cycle advance. But as usual only time will tell and my money says on and upward. If we are entering the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle move the potential for the upside would be head spinning. The Oceanic at $1.2M does not want to miss the first 500 points, so I'm willing to take the risk. My Tugboat will just cruise along with DCA no matter what happens. Otherwise we could meet again at Dow 6,885 The 8.46% decline leads me to believe that the longer term trend is truly a mega trend secular bull market - stay tuned. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If housing construction's share of economic output falls to the same level it hit in the early 1990s, after the last housing boom, you'll get a substantial drag on growth. The expectation is that growth would slow to 1.5% next year from a projected 3.3% this year, and the Fed cutting its rate target to 3.5% by mid-2008. I can smell the bull manure already.

Experience shows that if the Fed stays on the side lines into Oct 24 FOMC meeting for at least a four months stint, the probability is 100% that its next move will be a rate cut. Also from the 10 rate cycles of the past 60 years, more than 80% of the previous rate increases are ultimately reversed. Not once did the Fed fail to unwind at least 25% of the rate increases; on four occasions, it did a round trip (and then some). That suggests that a typical reversal would put the funds rate at 1.5% in the notr-too-distant future, or at the very least, at 4% or 4.25% to match the most-tepid easing cycle of all time, which was a trio of rate cuts in 1995 -1996. We have extablished a trending down line for inflation with lower highs. This is great and large caps are ready to finally outperform. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At least Richard Nixon redeemed himself over time as a great statesman, Bill Clinton never will achieve anything. Except give fellatio a bad name. What a punk - even worse than yellow back Jimmy Carter. And I'm be gratious.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At least Richard Nixon redeemed himself over time as a great statesman, Bill Clinton never will achieve anything. Except give fellatio a bad name. What a punk - even worse than yellow back Jimmy Carter. And I'm be gratious.

Boy, am I with you on this one! I believe I've said those same words, but not as gracefully. You are a great man after all!