Birchtree's Account Talk

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It was last Monday with a 326 point Dow drop that my oceanic account crapped out a ton at -$192K - with the last four trading days I've regained my sensibilities and my money - long live the mega trend secular bull market. All I need now is a+$200K in February to wipe out my January give back and the world I live in will be fine. I'm getting closer to more margin buying power and when that happens it's let me go crazy time - because if it moves I'll probably buy it.
 
Janet is trying to increase the inflation rate to the Feds' 2% area which is now +0.7%. History suggests that inflation below 5% or so is unlikely to be bad for stocks. At present, the financial index accounts for 16.6% of the entire S&P 500 - I expect that financials will soon take the lead and push us to new all time highs.
 
Well darn, it would appear that my position in TWC (Time Warner Cable) is going out for cash at $145. That's not how I wanted it to happen but what can I do - the market shows no mercy. So I'll just take the cash and shop in another window. Besides, who opened the door today and let'em in - mom and pop are going to push us into the stratosphere. I'd prefer they wait until after March.
 
There was a dash of good news today - o.j. simpson is going to starve himself to death because he is depressed. Well hallelujah to that.
 
There were several new all time index highs yesterday: NYSE Arca Biotech, NYSE Arca Pharma, PHILX Semiconductor. We are very close to many other index new all time highs. Stay tuned for the animal spirits to awaken.
 
Hey Chief, you might want to consider adding to your gold, silver, and miners positions on the next pullback. The tides are turning in a big way.
 
This rally feels like a stealth upward move - not much back tracking, only quiet buying by hedges and mutual funds. Mom and pop types may enter in the last hour or wait until Tuesday and then it'll be "get me in at any price." Animal spirits may awaken with a vengence brought down on the bears.
 
Finally my oceanic account lands a better week: -$10K, +$85K, -$1K, +$62K, +$30K for a sweet gain of +$166K. It looks like we plowed right on through the 14 zone for the VIX and now stand at 13.58 -0.56. We could be deep in the 10 zone before the ice thaws. That's a good thing because the current bull market has proved to be the strongest since 1940s. As long as the bullish breakouts hold, it is relatively easy to maintain a bullish stance. I'd say it's about time to prepare for a very strong surge in volume to buttress the beginnings of a new secular bull market. This market is discounting the future to say stock prices will rise sharply in the next 12 months as mom and pop take up positions. There is no real end in sight for the S&P 500 rally and besides history indicates that stocks rose almost every time the Fed has increased interest rates - so the longer they take to do that the greater the anticipation of the bullish hoofhearted.
 
The amount of cash you are in the game with is amazing to me Birch. Testament to your long term strategy for sure; good job! I dont think I have the fortitude to ride the pullbacks down like you do though :o
 
CrabClaw,

Having my account is like being at the beach watching money flow back and forth. I'm now waiting to get more margin buying power so I can indulge myself in wall flowers. I may buy more gold stocks initially.

"Once this phenomenon of gold-stock outperformance starts, it rarely stops until gold stocks soar radically higher as investors flock back in."

Gold-Stock Breakout 2 | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com
 
Birchtree said:
This rally feels like a stealth upward move - not much back tracking, only quiet buying by hedges and mutual funds. Mom and pop types may enter in the last hour or wait until Tuesday and then it'll be "get me in at any price." Animal spirits may awaken with a vengence brought down on the bears.
Click to expand...

Wish you'd stop talkin' bout animal spirits. You're making me hungry for a good steak.
 
"The S&P 500 index is up 5.6% in the past nine trading days, after falling 5.6% in eight sessions to its low on Feb.3. For some analysts and investors, the most remarkable part of this week's rally is that it was fueled without much positive news. Economic data continued to show a nation in the midst of a patchy recovery, while corporate earnings were hit and miss. Yet the overall stock market's gains underscore the belief by many investors that the economy and companies will grow enough to justify keeping stocks at relatively high levels." Stand back folks - do not block the doorway entrance because mom and pop will roll right over you. I still predict that we could see a 70 point gain in the SPX at any moment - that would certainly raise some anxiety levels in the pole sitters.
 
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