Birchtree's Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Ouch.

 

[Birchtree]

I did ask for some pain but I'm not interested in masochistic torture - looks like most indexes are wanting to play touch me with the 200 day MA. That'll be fine as long as it takes several months to regain footing. In the last two years my oceanic account has gained a respectful +$2.251M so I can afford to be somewhat generous in a give back but there is a limit. I'll continue to walk my talk and acquire wall flowers during the entire year. So bring on those golden prices...Snort. Holding long and strong.

 

[Birchtree]

Another 6 dividends to be reinvested today - so a small positive gain would be acceptable. There are some great prices out there right now. I dusted off my sacrificial lamb chop account just in case we take out the long term trend line of SPX at 1500 - that might bring a margin call. Until then I'll keep doing my dca strategy.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-still-a-bull-for-2014-get-in-now-max-out-gains-2014-02-01

 

[Birchtree]

Panic Selling Has A High Cost [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF), Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF] - Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

I fondly remember the crushing days of December 2008 and these consolidations since then are simply a pleasure. No reason to get excited - just keep buying these golden girls. Looking back three months from now will bring enlightment. We are in a rest phase and these pauses have proven to be good buying opportunities - some times you just have to throw money away.

 

[Birchtree]

Corrections Come, Corrections Go [Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (ADR), Aceto Corporation, Perficient, Inc.] - Seeking Alpha

The AAII survey shows bullish sentiment now at 32.2% which is below the average 39%.

 

[TSP-roulette]

Hey BT; a little credit to Amoeba perhaps? he's kicking a little "A" in the tracker.

 

[Birchtree]

Well every dog does have his day - if he decides to get aggressive he'll be a winner.

 

[Birchtree]

We are currently back above the 150d SMA at 1752.33. "If the jobs data confirms the economy is on solid footing we may get the surge in buying that we are missing to call a market bottom and end the current pullback." Today may count.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article44304.html

Rumor has it we could see a 300K jobs number/ Jeff Saut.

 

[catak]

TSP market watch, Traffic light turns yellow!! The evidence for a bounce is in! Already used my two IFT's for the month. Should of maybe stayed in the C fund, but went safe at 50% G and 50% S and also went 100% C in my contributions. Good luck!

 

[Birchtree]

Mindylou and I have been tape reading as our usual activity when she says to me -" boss it's the nose that knows and my nose really knows. Why are we seeing so many biotech double digit gains. This is starting to feel like 2000 when it was all about internet nonsense - my nose is saying be careful." I told her to relax there is plenty of time left in this bull so let the biotechs run their race. But is this activity a signal of trouble on the way later in 2014 when the ominous 40 year Kress cycle applies its' pressure. Just don't buy those biotechs at this time - let the hedges get their fill first. The strong rally today is not to my liking but what can I do? I have to accept my fate. We did mange to get four triple digit down days consecutively - now we may get four back to back double digit days to the upside - that would be a record. So my money flows out and then flows back into the fold. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

The advancing blow off top could take the market to SPX 2000 and beyond before any serious correction set in - the Dow will see 20,000 in short order.

 

[rspring]

If you look at the Autotracker, there is a lot of Dry Powder that could be invested in equities!:toung:

 

[shitepoke]

Damn BT- DOW 20,000. Are you serious- based on what. This economy sucks...

 

[Birchtree]

It would take me 20 minutes to answer - suffice it to say household survey jobs of 638,000 - small businesses. This is the second month of good gains. The economy is actually in fine shape and improving. Mindylou is calling me for our afternoon nap - see you later.

 

[Birchtree]

Even though the Dow came back nicely on the week, I didn't get all mine back, but I will. Here is how the oceanic account performed: -$192K, +$44K, -$42K, +$85K. +$48K for a give back of -$57K on the week. We'll see how the rest of the month goes.

 

[Birchtree]

It'll be interesting just to see how data dependent the Fed is when Janet speaks on Tuesday. Tapering the taper at $65 billion for several months is my bet.

 

[Birchtree]

Laszlo Birinyi sees S&P 500 at 1,900 by end of second quarter: report - The Tell - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

I just came in from working in my yard and I must say I'm impressed - still so many nonbelievers and I like that. Back to 16,000 already and the high on the year was at 16,576, soon to follow. The SPX high at 1848.38 could fall tomorrow and then we're back in uncharted territory. Are we now looking at the early phase of a manic parabolic meltup - whew I'll take another 30% this year all the way to 2354.