Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Transports down 4.4% in one day. The total market is in what seems like a pyroclastic meltdown and that is not what is happening. This is normal profit taking - grab the brass ring and buy until it hurts.

 

[Birchtree]

One should remember that new bear markets don't start with panic terminal velocity to the downside - that is a bull market phenomenon. I think my oceanic account may have given back somewhere close to -$175K today - but no matter I did accumulate over $1.5M last year and giving some back is natural. Snort.

 

[wavecoder]

One should remember that new bear markets don't start with panic terminal velocity to the downside - that is a bull market phenomenon. I think my oceanic account may have given back somewhere close to -$175K today - but no matter I did accumulate over $1.5M last year and giving some back is natural. Snort.

just a move to shake out the weak bulls, the bus was getting too heavy

 

[Birchtree]

Well it was not a pretty picture but then it was no surprise so here is how my oceanic performed: +$15K, +$21K, -$45K, -$176K for a give back on a four day week of -$186K. There is a strong possibility I'll make this all back next week or come close - but then a slow trend line advance would be purrfect for my dollar cost averaging approach - my income stream is intact and will grow faster with these golden prices. It's all in the game but now sentiment and the oscillators have been reset so forward progress is now available. Will small caps (R2K) break its' trend line - for the long term it really doesn't matter - it just provides golden pricing for those that were sitting provided they walk their talk.

 

[Birchtree]

http://moneymorning.com/2014/01/24/lng-stock-chart-3-stocks-crushing-sp-500/

 

[Birchtree]

I just checked my Cheniere Energy (LNG) position to compare with the above linked chart. I'm in initially at $8 and have been DCAing up to $29 for a capital gain currently at +$52K and a 164% gain. I'll continue to increase my position throughout the coming years - they will probably eventually be a take over candidate. So I won't take any profit gains just yet. I currently have 54 dividends due in February - thus a slow upward trend from here would help my income stream but a fast rush of the parabolic type would return my margin honey pot for more asset accumulation - either way will be fine. Mom and pop are certainly scared now for awhile - just when they thought it was safe to enter the no spin zone. It's all healthy and it's going to be a very long year. My targets remain 2400/SPX and 24,000/Dow. We'll just see how crazy I am.

 

[Birchtree]

As usually happens year in and year out I seem to start close to the bottom on the tracker - this year currently at #1100 with a -2.80% loss. But I'm alot like Smarty Jones starting from the rear of the pack and picking up steam as the year rolls on - I'm hoping for better than 25% in 2014. Whew, that would be sweet again for my tugboat. When I roll my wife's defined contribution plan over to a roll over traditional IRA I'll be doing some serious equity buying to assist in our income stream - but that's a few months from now. I happen to like the market starting out on a negative basis - scares away mom and pop and allows my dividends to work more aggressively. Every share I buy contributes a larger dividend 3 months later - all on auto pilot. But then again my greedy self would welcome a 600 point rebound setting up the Big Valley. That would certainly reawaken the animal spirits.

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market big selloff, is a correction underway?"

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44117.html

 

[burrocrat]

i never have figured out if you're the one with horns, or the red cape. but i know why you do it either way, it can't hurt you. the worst you could do is lose, and then it doesn't matter. your children will be happy for sure. here's to winning.

 

[Birchtree]

"As fourth-quarter earnings have been reported, so far the news has been as expected. With 21% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported results, profits are on track to rise 6.2% from the year-ago quarter, in line with projections, according to FactSet." Buy during a panic, don't sell.

 

[Birchtree]

It's nice to see my wife's bottom line grow. Her recent FRS statement of her defined contribution plan indicates she gained +$58.3K during the last three months of 2013. Now that's nice money for a buy and hold approach based on the S&P 500 index. Who knows what the gain might be in 2014 - I plan to do a traditional IRA rollover within the next six months when she finally retires. The plan is to purchase many wall flowers that I don't already own and build another income stream - reinvesting the dividends initially. Then at a later date I'll begin a conversion Roth IRA rollover to avoid the required minimum distribution - and I plan to do the same with my tugboat (TSP). Just trying to plan ahead and keep Obama out of my pockets. The day today actually looks good with nice internal gains. I think it might be straight up from here.

 

[rspring]

Birch, does the conversion Roth rollover have to be done all at once or can you roll it for several years until you have exhausted your ballance? Thaks

 

[Birchtree]

You can roll as much as you want over any time frame - that way you have the advantage to control your AGI and thereby keeping the taxes lower. Anytime you have control of your income the better from a tax standpoint. Everything is based on that AGI. It requires a lifetime of planning - when do you take social security and your annuity. Money you can't control will come every month and so will the tax obligation. I'm trying my best to hold my AGI under the $250K Obama 3.8% extra tax. The value of capital gains is there is no requirement to take those gains - ever. They are great for heirs.

 

[rspring]

Thanks, that is great information to know. I didn't realize you could do this.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

It's nice to see my wife's bottom line grow. ....

Dont' worry, we won't let her know you said that.

:blink:

 

[Birchtree]

Boeing (BA) is knocking off 45 points from the Dow this morning. And Dow Chemical announces that they are increasing their dividend 15% - I now have accumulated 16 dividend increase announcements so far with 142 to go to catch 2013. If the Fed decides to hold this market can turn on a dime.

 

[Birchtree]

I've been tape reading today as usual and the market just doesn't feel as bad as it might look - of course the Fed announcement after 1400 hours may change everything even more negative - so I'll sit tight and allow my dividends to do the heavy lifting for the next two months. That's the advise from Mindylou.

 

[Birchtree]

With the possibility of trending sideways for a couple months I decided this evening to take inventory of my dividend reinvestments for March. And behold to my surprise I counted 105 dividends and all along I thought I was at 75 or so. I need to start paying more attention. This cycle will be repeated every three months. I have 54 dividends due for February. We are now at a 5% consolidation on the Dow and close on the SPX - this is a bottoming zone with sentiment now way over sold.

 

[Birchtree]

For the Dow over the past 25 years, the directional outcomes of January and the full year have differed only four times. This year we may see number five as the bullish momentum carries forward from 2013. Our consolidation may end soon - will the rebound be a V or base building. I'll take the base building through March to put some dividends to work with golden prices.

 

[Birchtree]

I knew from tape reading the other day that the Dow wasn't telling the true story. The 50 SMA for the SPX is at 1812.52 and this market can regain that level in the blink of an eye. Earnings are fine and when we exceed 1848 I'll be back into the margin honey pot - my plan for 2014 is to go absolutely crazy and buy everything available with my margin gains - somewhere close to $600K would be ideal. No 10% correction until October and from much higher levels. Snort.