Birchtree's Account Talk

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GUCHI said:
indications show that large cap (sp 500) and I fund will be the place to be in 2014. i have been waiting for the I fund for some time dcaing waiting for it to pay BIG. maybe that time will be 2014. it also said gold will continue to fall.
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What indications?
 
HB
i tried to find the article thgat showed 10 things about the market and those were 2 of them. i think it was in marketwatch. sorry i could not find it. i may look again later since i saw it a day or 2 ago.
 
Gosh, Rochester. Let's party like it's 1995 - c'mon folks rejoice and join in. We could be kicking into hyperdrive going into year end. Sonders says the number of bond mutual funds that own or are buying stocks is at its highest point in 18 years. That's remarkable. The great rotation continues. We're going way deep into uncharted territory past SPX 1820. Snort - what is that smell that is wafting across the board today - I know, it's the sweet smell of superlative bull manure. Here comes a triple digit Dow gain.
 
It was a nice week for the oceanic account: +$51K, -$11K, +$93K, -$21K, +$56K for a handsome gain of +$168K. The ability to think far into the future is not something that comes easy. But it is essential in order to be a successful investor especially with the Fed providing guidance on interest rates. And actually the lack of obvious euphoria from the public may simply extend our bull market's life. If the S&P hits 2,000, that would mean a total market gain of 195.6% from its March 2009 closing low of 676.53, putting this bull market among the very best of the last 50 years. Blazing into uncharted territory is always dangerous but now that margin buying power is building I'll be chasing Ferdinand and running in front of the Grand Trunk all at the same time. The strategy is simple - the more you own the more appreciation that is available. With our recent 13 year trend line breakout there is high probability we are headed higher. My targets for 2012 year end were SPX of 1700 and Dow of 17,000. My targets for 2014 are 2400 for SPX and 24,000 for the Dow. Snort. If those targets come to fruition wealth will grow.
 
You can still make big money in this stock market, but it will require bigger money to purchase higher priced shares. That's the danger going forward getting in deeper. I plan to rack up the score like on a pin ball machine. The more I make the more I can make - the beauty of living dangerously on margin. And remember, on a comparative basis, Japan's monetary stimulus is three times the size of that in the USA - a good reason for me to stick with the infamous I fund in my tugboat account. When it comes to equity investing, you buy the future and now is the time. The bulls are going to go wild as money flows hit new records - I'm just running with the herd.
 
"At the end of the third quarter, dividend payers in S&P 500 index totaled 417 companies, or 84% of the index, marking a 17 year high. The number of S&P companies that increased dividend payments hit a 20 year high. S&P 500 companies paid a record $84.3 billion in dividends in the third quarter and $339 billion over the previous 12 months - more than double the figure paid 10 years earlier."
 
If I can see any type of rally come tomorrow I plan to dive in and buy myself some holiday cheer. Mindylou has the list updated and ready to fly - buying happiness. I also pledge to make at least +$2M in 2014 and perhaps more - it's margin push all the way. The more I make the more I can make. I'm counting on Bernanke telling me the truth about the direction of interest rates and the timing of any increases. I'm sure the hedge funds will be climbing all over themselves playing catch up. It's a good time to be long while so many portfolio managers are still in the disbelief phase of this bull market.
 
"After its big gains, the S&P 500 looks expensive. It trades at almost 19 times its component companies' earnings for the past year, above the historical average of 16. But although that is high, it isn't extreme. Money managers say this price/earnings ratio probably would have to get well into the 20s before they become too worried."
 
I'm stepping in to chase the mighty bull: AKS, AA, MCP, TRW, TEN, TWX, RDC. If the rally continues to melt-up I'll be back to throw more coins into the fountain of youth.
 
Now that didn't take long - I'm addicted to sweet wall flowers: KEY, RF, MAS, BAM. This market can really ramp up as many stocks are simply running with me in front of the Grand Trunk. Stay tuned and stay long.
 
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