Birchtree's Account Talk

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I believe the book was on the NY Times best seller list for three years and should still be widely available. Howerver, you might find the Sheri Hite Report more fun.
 
A few questions and answers for Liz Ann Sonders. "Q: A rising rate environment could spell concerns for investors, since historically that has been tougher for stocks, right? A: Not necessarily. I think you have to differentiate rising rates between the long end and the short end. You have a honeymoon phase in the early stages of tightening, assuming inflation stays in check. When you get to the point where short term rates start to go up, the first stage of that-and it varies from cycle to cycle- doesn't tend to be bad for the stock market. Q: So is there a case to be made for stocks over the next few years? A: I lean toward the view that what started in March of '09 was a new secular bull market, not just a cyclical rally in a secular bear market that started in 2000 and is still ongoing. There's no textbook rule of a secular bull or bear market and its starting and end points. But generally the types of things that have been in place during the beginning of secular bulls were in place in March of '09."
 
"If stocks aren't rising at the end of December, and if they aren't rising at the start of January, something is wrong. If the market doesn't follow the typical pattern it would be a signal that an underlying problem exists." "If the market doesn't do well in the first two weeks of January it is usually a bearish indicator for the year."
 
Birchtree said:
"If stocks aren't rising at the end of December, and if they aren't rising at the start of January, something is wrong. If the market doesn't follow the typical pattern it would be a signal that an underlying problem exists." "If the market doesn't do well in the first two weeks of January it is usually a bearish indicator for the year."
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Thanks Birchtree....that is very good to know. :) I just jumped in 50%, but would like to buy more .
 
Birchtree said:
"If stocks aren't rising at the end of December, and if they aren't rising at the start of January, something is wrong. If the market doesn't follow the typical pattern it would be a signal that an underlying problem exists." "If the market doesn't do well in the first two weeks of January it is usually a bearish indicator for the year."
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Lots of profits to be had in 2013 but for tax purposes investors may wait until January to sell. The Januray "tell" will be interesting. You know - ask goes the first few days in Januray, so goes the year.
 
Birchtree said:
"If stocks aren't rising at the end of December, and if they aren't rising at the start of January, something is wrong. If the market doesn't follow the typical pattern it would be a signal that an underlying problem exists." "If the market doesn't do well in the first two weeks of January it is usually a bearish indicator for the year."
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By Steve Todd from Todd's Market Forecast....

"STOCKS: I want to go over my reasons for being bullish on this market. It's mainly seasonal. The market has a strong tendency to rally from the low in November or December to a high in December or January. In 53 of the last 65 years, the ultimate
high occurred in January. Of the 12 December tops, eight occurred in the last three days of the month. So, you see the end of the year and January have a strong pull."

Decision Point®: Todd Market Forecast -- Steve Todd
 
I've been watching the dust cloud form in the distance - the herd must be on the move. Watch the buying panic when it hits - it'll be so much fun.
 
Could it be that one might employ the cilis to distract oneself when tempted by feelings of euphoria?

burrocrat said:
that cilis reference has been bugging me for a week, for a couple of reasons. in another thread you reminded me not to leave the house without my cilis, and now you can't get it off your leg.

when i googled it the search results were inconclusive. first it came up with 'cialis'. which makes no sense in either context because it would be on the abdomen not the leg. then the google said 'Center for Idonesian Law, Islam and Society'. but that can't be it either because how could that attach to a leg anyhow?

then i came across this: 'cilice'. it is like a goat's hair shirt or sackcloth from some kind of self-mortification corporal punishment ritual in the olden days. more modernly exhibited as a steel ring-and-spike garter belt as worn by member of opus dei, if urban dictionary is correct.

View attachment 26276

so i think i understand what you're talking about (cilice), but i still can't for the life of me figure out what that has to do with investing or the whole 1st amendment abridging the freedom of speach thingy?
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Birchtree said:
I've been watching the dust cloud form in the distance - the herd must be on the move. Watch the buying panic when it hits - it'll be so much fun.
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Hope you're right, as I'm spread out between I, C & S, but for some reason I'm feeling a bit like I did way back when the S&P was around 1500, and I sat by as it tanked to 666. So many other factors other than fundementals at play. Seems Ben & co. burp and the markets either tank or head north.
 
We could now easily see a close by the end of week of a 1813 SPX and then on to new territory highs - investing is exciting.
 
I'm dollar cost averaging into my gold positions this morning and also buying a trucker to haul it around in: GFI, GDXJ, SBGL, FCX, RRTS. 2014 is going to be a tremendous opportunity for investors to really make some important gains.
 
indications show that large cap (sp 500) and I fund will be the place to be in 2014. i have been waiting for the I fund for some time dcaing waiting for it to pay BIG. maybe that time will be 2014. it also said gold will continue to fall.
Birchtree said:
I'm dollar cost averaging into my gold positions this morning and also buying a trucker to haul it around in: GFI, GDXJ, SBGL, FCX, RRTS. 2014 is going to be a tremendous opportunity for investors to really make some important gains.
Click to expand...
 
hotwings said:
Now might be the time to pick up some of the more hated stocks (coal, steel and materials) that "should" do well as the world economy recovers... just grabbed some more BTU, CLF and AKS.
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These stocks are smoking today! I'm sure we will get some pullback before a nice smooth ride up in 2014 as the world economy continues to recover.
 
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