Birchtree's Account Talk

[JimmyJoe]

The week that was and it was all good. My oceanic looked like this: +$27K, -$54K, +$53K, +$55K, +$48K for a pleasing gain of +$129K. I'm now ahead +$208K on the month with 9 trading days to finish up. Last year in October I lost -$1K - this year I might capture +$300K. Listen to the S&P 500's roar. Capital that is sitting on the sidelines always precedes great rallies and this time is no different - there is no other game in town.

I used to try to follow the graphs and charts. With 2 moves a month, what can you do? For the last year I've simply gone by the golden rule, "time in the market is better than timing it". You're a proven winner Birch. I follow your profitable lead. In that time I've made nearly as much as I've withdrawn during my retirement. That's like free money. And it still won't stop. I'm looking for SPX to go to 1800 or 1900 by the end of the year. Once you get comfortable as you let the market work for you, I've found that there is less stress in my financial life as well as my life in general. In fact there is more pleasure now that I am able to focus on the positives of life.

 

[tom1tom1]

You know me Birch, Always use I-fund for trades. Just have to be out during certain times.

 

[Birchtree]

I went searching for amoeba at #1014 with -0.16% and inadvertantly bumped into his undaunted neighbor malyla at #1045 with -1.48%. I wish them both a better year in 2014.

 

[Birchtree]

"87% of stocks in the S&P 500 with rising 200 day SMAs and 84% of stocks above their 200 day SMA. The markets strong long term outlook is still deep into bullish territory and does not suggest a market top is forming." I can see many more days of back to back triple digit Dow up gains - a couple this week would be purrfect. Make me money.

 

[Birchtree]

" The bottom line is this that the hated and wall of worry climbing stocks stealth bull market remains completely intact, the year end picture resolves to a new all time high."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42761.html

Please Mr. Custer I'd like to earn +$100K this week - you know I'm deserving. It's been a long time since I was on the cross - but I haven't forgotten those painful days.

 

[Birchtree]

Stocks can stay in these ranges for months on months with only very mild consolidations usually intraday - that makes it difficult to capture lower pricing. We are in the early stages of a golden mega trend secular bull market and when mom and pop finally capitulate the panic buying will be glorious. Hi Yo Silver.

 

[Birchtree]

The Science of Beating the Market - October 18, 2013 - Zacks.com

 

[JimmyJoe]

Stocks can stay in these ranges for months on months with only very mild consolidations usually intraday - that makes it difficult to capture lower pricing. We are in the early stages of a golden mega trend secular bull market and when mom and pop finally capitulate the panic buying will be glorious. Hi Yo Silver.

Nobody ever made any big money playing it safe.

 

[Birchtree]

"Stocks bull market continues."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42763.html

 

[JimmyJoe]

I went searching for amoeba at #1014 with -0.16% and inadvertantly bumped into his undaunted neighbor malyla at #1045 with -1.48%. I wish them both a better year in 2014.

Both of them watching the preppers channel.

 

[maverick06]

My condolences for those at the bottom of the tracker after such a great year. however, I have wondered, are those at the bottom really trying, or are they intentionally trying to keep the tracker as low as possible for whatever reason that would be.......

As of today the leader is at 36% and the bottom is -5.77%. Are those at the bottom really trying to make money? seriously asking, not trying to be a jerk, just curious what your investment plan is.........

 

[TSP-roulette]

Just my two cents. Those at bottom of tracker might be the young newer hires in the Civil Service, the rest are probably retirees just preserving. Just guessing.

 

[WorkFE]

Those at bottom of tracker might be the young newer hires in the Civil Service, the rest are probably retirees just preserving.

I believe new hires are started in the G-fund in which case there would be no loss and -5% is not preserving.
While I certainly am not at the bottom, I am far from the top as well. It has been a good year for a bunch of folks. In my case +6% is a significant increase in my TSP. I dream of that scenario when I am 59 1/2.
A lot of folks start out with a goal in mind and then abandon the tracker at some point when they make a couple bad moves. They may very well be doing something completely different in there actual account.

I personally have shifted my attention to my individual stock purchases and selling although I certainly plan on making a last push in Nov. and December with my TSP. In any event I hope folks are not really losing 5% in this market.

 

[Birchtree]

"But the casualty in all this has been the U.S. dollar, which has fallen out of its two year trading range and now threatens to return to its 2011 lows."

Kiss the dollar goodbye - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

"So, the question is just how high this 5th wave must travel to take bullishness to appropriate heights for a significant market correction."

Why is everyone so sure of S&P 1800? - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

"This is the best environment for stocks right now. You don't have rising interest rates becoming a problem. You don't have inflationary pressures. You do have earnings growth, said Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research in Venice, Fla. The firm has studied stock performance in a variety of economic environments going back decades. /one of the most positive indicators today, Mr. Hayes said, is that unemployment is a high 7.3%, but declining. When the unemployment rate is above 6% and falling, that is the best situation for the stock marked based on the performance of the S&P 500 back to the 1940s. Stocks average 13.5% annual gains when unemployment is above 6%, and 16.5% when the rate is that high and falling. Joblessness isn't good for ordinary people, of course, but stocks respond more to expectations for corporate earnings, inflation, interest rates and the like."

 

[GUCHI]

Just my two cents. Those at bottom of tracker might be the young newer hires in the Civil Service, the rest are probably retirees just preserving. Just guessing.

With most of the funds being in the green ytd (except the F) it must be contributed to untimely moves in or out or a combination of both. it has been mentioned on the MB that buy n hold has reigned this year and you can see those steady S funders holding tight. some have dropped out, and are kicking themselves now but we all live and learn. the market has been calling for a drop for a long long time. but what i noticed was we did have some drops but then it came back stronger and kept moving up. the market has lulled a lot of people to sleep and they are waiting for the drop which has not apppeared yet. i stayed in figuring with the high percentages the equities had i could stand to loose 4-6% if it happened. i would not like it but i would take the pain and keep it moving. just my 2 cents.

 

[Birchtree]

"Trend lines do not always bring out sellers."

Stock Market Bubble vs. Impressive Bullish Breakout | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

The advance/decline line has climbed to a new bull market high. All I really want for Christmas is three hundred thousand more dollars in my oceanic account - there is still room for growth among my wall flowers. So open the door and let'em in.

 

[tsptalk]

Oh, brother. Anybody else getting sick of the constant bull manure? Somebody get him a bucket. I think sentiment has reached a spewing level and he needs room for some humble pie.

OK, I'm jealous. Nice job, B.