Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
I'm buying some homebuilders today: PHM, KBH, BZH. Could I catch a +300 point gain on the close - second best trading day of the year so far.
 
Last edited:
Birchtree said:
My strategy may help answer some of your questions. I invest as a family unit. My TSP (tugboat) is invested in large cap global stocks via the I fund with a leverage kick from the large cap C fund. My wife has a defined contribution plan that is 100% large cap domestic S&P 500 index fund and my oceanic account is around 95% small cap individual stocks. My Birchtree 300 fund has been built to deliver a dividend income stream - this is my oceanic account. I also have been building a margin escape portfolio called my sacrificial lamb chop account which will be jetisoned if necessary to save my oceanic base from the back office margin girls when they come knocking again. So I'm considerably diversified as I approach the future and I'm risk on for the next 20 years. I started out the week with a ytd gain of $945K and will undoubtedly give some of that back this week - but then again I'm getting golden prices for my dividend reinvestments that will grow in perpituity.
Click to expand...

This is an excellent strategy..so you are leveraging your buys and have a specific account set up to deal with margin calls (sacrificial lamb) and buying good dividend stocks to build a permanent income flow....very nice!
 
I'd like to see another run of consecutive triple digit gains like we had a few weeks ago. The Dow just showed me a +302 gain - will it hold.
 
Since I'm future oriented I've been trying to decide if the remainder of this mega trend secular bull market is going to be one of inflation or disinflation. I have age on my side to look back over history and my experiences - it will form in time.
 
Weatlh preservation is paramount to me. I managed to hit the right days this month and will take over 2% for October plus G Fund interest until November 1st (when I can trade again). But, like Vegas, it's nice to walk away and cash out chips. I am done on TSP this month, but the IRA's are ready for action since they were consolidated into one trading account. I moved 1/3 of the retirement savings in and out twice this month with TSP and now it sits in G fund safety.
 
Is there ever a bad time to buy stocks. With a sufficiently long holding period investment time horizon, it could be said that it always is a good time to purchase the S&P 500 index (C fund) in that you will usually achieve a gain. Yesterday showed a 90% up day - this should signify a low is in place as we have seen in the bottoms over the past two years.
 
The good folks that are dumping out because we have a few gains are being silly. They are just not thinking ahead. To get the long-term outlook, one must look beyond the purely technical approach. That's where fundamental analysis comes in. The longer term outlook is what fundamental analysis is made for. The short term is for technical analysis. Keeping in mind that the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months, the revelations of the past year have already long since been discounted by the market. Not that the market can't go down from here, but if it does, it won't be the impulsive type.
 
I'm working my way back to you babe - approaching the +$1M ytd gain for my oceanic account. Who only knows when it will stop - of course the Shadow knows.
 
Whew, I suspect that with a 5 to 1 ratio yesterday that the advance/decline line is moving up again. As long as the NYAD line continues to move higher with enough strength to pull apart the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMAs, the higher and higher price is going to go. Bull markets often start with low volume because there are few believers - more volume will come later when opinions switch.
 
It was a turbulent week for the oceanic account and left me shy $13K from realizing my goal of +$1M ytd. Here is what transpired: -$67K, -$75K, -$2K, +$122K, +$64K for a gain og +$42K. So here I sit - next week could give me a +$100K. It's all good from my greedy perspective. Bull markets do one thing, and one thing only, they resolve to NEW bull market highs. For my sake, if you are still wary of everything that burned you over the past few years - why change. Obviously, there's a new secular bull market in equities. We're out of the trading range we've been in since 2000 and if you are a nonbeliever you can wait for another few thousand Dow points to pass you bye. This rally is now on steroids - gains go to the hoofhearted that can take the risks.
 
Birchtree said:
Steady as she goes.

"The ability to think far into the future - years and decades - is not something that comes easy. But it is essential in order to be a successful investor."
Click to expand...

In that vein, here's a 20 year view of the market. The thing that strikes me is the giant megaphone pattern that is taking shape. I'm going to ride this bull for as long as she'll take me, but I am also going to be aware that we may very likely re-visit the bottom of that megaphone, which will be below 600 by the time we get there. Eventually this massive and historic asset bubble will pop. The only question is when.


S&P 20 Year.png
 
Yep, been watching that megaphone for a long time now. And reading John Hussman, who is a fundamentals kinda guy who speaks to market valuation and risk from longterm statistical probability perspective. don't know when it will come, but he's expecting another 40-50% loss in next few years, the megaphone chartist I watch, expects things to get worse than 600 when the time comes. guess we'll see. I'm still in the market in small ways outside tsp, will get back into the tsp market when the fundamental and chart odds are both more in my favor. too close to retirement to decimate the big account now. not enough time to recoup major losses before retirement. so I'll just keep saving as hard as I can in the meantime. It'll go back into the market at some point.
 
I agree. Look at the futures, if you bought into the Friday hype (I sold my TSP shares on Thurs), you would be sick to your stomach right now, as tomorrow is going to suck. I always say, better to sell one day early than one day too late. Leave room at the top, which was Friday. If one has deep pockets, one can absorb a 50% loss, not me.

I too save, and defer all my current income to 401K and 457(b) in stable value funds and live off of my pension. I only risk my TSP and IRA's, but it's measured.

I don't understand how we are in a secular bull market when Wal-Mart already telegraphed they were cutting back on 4th QTR orders. It's manipulated bull market. It may very well be a secular bull market, but who can tell with the steroids injected into the bull.



alevin said:
Yep, been watching that megaphone for a long time now. And reading John Hussman, who is a fundamentals kinda guy who speaks to market valuation and risk from longterm statistical probability perspective. don't know when it will come, but he's expecting another 40-50% loss in next few years, the megaphone chartist I watch, expects things to get worse than 600 when the time comes. guess we'll see. I'm still in the market in small ways outside tsp, will get back into the tsp market when the fundamental and chart odds are both more in my favor. too close to retirement to decimate the big account now. not enough time to recoup major losses before retirement. so I'll just keep saving as hard as I can in the meantime. It'll go back into the market at some point.
Click to expand...
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi..I'm seeing the bottom at 800 based on line between 1995 and 2008 lows.
Click to expand...
But still trying to figure out why it is drawn as a megaphone instead of last two lowest points?? Is there some theory about megaphone?? Since we are still in an long term uptrend, I thought we should use two lowest points to draw that bottom line. I guess will read up more on that. Have no doubt we have an artificially created/extended trend (without the massive hit yet) and when it falls out is gage big question. But in the interim, there continues to be an big opportunity for gains.
 
I have no fear of a so called magaphone - we have a breakout of a 13 year overhead trend line. 1703 is not the top. I'm optimistic on the future decade.

"As third-quarter earnings season begins, some worry that sky-high profit margins will finally slip, pushing stock down. So far, there is little indication of profit weakness for U.S. companies. Improving outlooks for Europe and China should help. When the latest fiscal fight is resolved, there could be lots of upside through next spring, says Mr. Yardeni, who notes that earnings expectations have been strong and industry analysts have been raising their revenue estimates over the past few weeks for this year and the next two years." Now can you smell that. It's what Birchtree is cookin.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
739
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
377
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
197
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
25
Views
1K
nasa1974
nasa1974
tsptalk
  • Article Article
If there is a wall of worry out there, stocks are clearly still climbing it
Replies
1
Views
147
nasa1974
nasa1974
Back
Top