Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

We are back on the gravy train of accelerating asset prices - if you're sitting on too much cash, the market is running away from you. If you want to make hay in this market you must go against the crowd and ride the proverbial wall of worry. I can smell something parabolic about to raise the roof to new highs. Since 1960, stocks have traded at over 20 times earnings when long term rates have been less than 3% - we are currently undervalued. QE3 infinity almost creates another backdrop conducive to a strong move into the rest of the year. The bears are slowly being pummeled into submission adding fuel to this rocket move coming. Snort.

 

[GUCHI]

just curiuous... if someone (me) had some extra money to pay off tsp loan and wanted to do it now or before the end of the month. where would be a good place to allocate the money to pay off loan? just wanted to get some thought on this. sorry about the hijack BT.

thanks
john

 

[Birchtree]

If you are adament about paying off the loan I'd go long with the I fund for the next couple of years. On the other hand a good stock to look at is Duke Realty (DRE) paying 4.66% at $14.00 - they own a lot of property over in Seneca, South Carolina on Lake Keowee. It would be a great IRA play for dividend reinvestments - I own a very nice block already. If you are not inclined to go with the I fund my second choice would be the C fund.

 

[MrBowl]

Now that brother RFW is apparently on banishment vacation for probably a few days - this makes him eligible for conjugal visitation.

Looks like Tom doesn't put the controversial posts in the Post Purgatory anymore so I can't go see what all the fuss is about. That's a shame...those banishment-worthy msgs are good entertainment. It's like when I was a kid and wanted to watch anything with an R rating.

 

[GUCHI]

BT
i have been long on the I fund for probably 3-4 years maybe longer. i have been 50/50 with my allocation I/L2040 and thought about leaving it that way when i pay off loan. but the S fund has been sooo sweet and i have been hearing that it was going to switch over to the C fund but it keeps pushing higher leaving no room for the other funds to overtake it. ohhh and it takes 2-3 business days from when they recieve the payoff to process and complete. makes it hard trying to get even close to a bottom.

 

[Birchtree]

So far for the week I'm only out -$3K - my small caps have been holding me above water. Get ready for a multiple-week rally deep into October. Longer term money flow remains positive and at new all time highs. More market surprises on the horizon.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Now that brother RFW is apparently on banishment vacation for probably a few days - this makes him eligible for conjugal visitation.

Squawk out to RFW...He was nice enough to let a bunch of us hang out in his yard last weekend for some harmless down-time bantering...with much ado about some crazy bird dances including a the "moonwalk" ..hilarious..thanks Sstasel..

 

[polarbear]

I agree. It's having a tumultuous birth down here at the bottoming of intermediate wave iv, but the down variant does not look likely to me. The up variant does. I may be wrong, but I don't think so. End of quarter, doesn't that usually produce window dressing in the investment funds? The financial media provide zero guidance, the data provide guidance. The financial media just yak it up both ways all the time. That tells you nothing. Yeah, market action is erratic right now, but within limits, and the RSI is trending up, the MACD not sure.

 

[Birchtree]

If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong. Success in investing comes from being able to see not what is in front of you but what is lurking just around the corner. My advise is to buy now to beat the rush. Pimco's Gross has been saying the Fed wants a 5% GDP - more QE coming. Probably QE4, QE5, etc.

 

[Birchtree]

I know I shouldn't say this because I could end up with a hoof in a bear trap, but if the SPX can close out the month above 1707, then there is a strong likelihood of another 15% gain by year end based on 40 years of data. Buy right and hold on. We are in the early phase of a multiyear secular bull market and it isn't too late to buy in yet. Watch what NKE does to the Dow tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

Markets Aren't As Stupid As Politicians - Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

Go ahead, let'em shut things down, I don't have a care in the world about it. I'll simply wait until sometime in October to declare my +$1M gain ytd. Have 3 dividends due today, 7 due on Mondat and 13 due on Tuesday - so I'll gladly sacrifice capital gains to earn golden prices for dividend reinvestments - the capital gains will come back in time. Dividend reinvestments are forever and a good way to build wealth.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Go ahead, let'em shut things down, I don't have a care in the world about it. I'll simply wait until sometime in October to declare my +$1M gain ytd. Have 3 dividends due today, 7 due on Mondat and 13 due on Tuesday - so I'll gladly sacrifice capital gains to earn golden prices for dividend reinvestments - the capital gains will come back in time. Dividend reinvestments are forever and a good way to build wealth.

Well said. You are in the perfect position of "critical mass", as Bob Brinker likes to say.

 

[Birchtree]

It would appear that the market is fighting back against the incessant daily noise that is distracting traders, keeping them cowering in fear, hiding cash, and perhaps losing out on huge gains. Success is not final, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts.

 

[Birchtree]

Seeds Of Change Growing | Mary Anne & Pamela Aden | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

"Coal the most unlikely beneficiary of the natural gas boom."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42457.html

 

[Birchtree]

"A funny thing happened on the way to higher stock market prices - the small guy missed out."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42459.html

 

[Birchtree]

Dividend payments as a percentage of company profits now stand at about 30%, versus a historical average of 52% - I take that to mean there will be more dividend income headed my way for my retirement comfort. From a contrarian point of view, once again pouring money into bond funds, continues to be a very positive development as it shows we are a very long way from the excess exuberance that is seen at market tops. Multiple expansion is the hidden lever that turns modestly higher earnings into much higher stock prices - and I'll be patiently waiting to reap some capital gains in 2014.

 

[Birchtree]

The energy of the stock market is a lot smarter than our collective intelligence, let the market do the talking. While some investors may worry about losing money by jumping into an uncertain market like this one, there's just as much risk in missing out on profits once the market reverses to the upside - and it always does don'tcha know. A senior technical analyst at Piper Jaffray sees a year-end S&P 500 target of 1850, and believes there is a chance of a melt-up in stocks during the 4th quarter of this year. Gosh, if it happens I could add another perhaps +$900K to my net worth.

 

[Birchtree]

All I know going forward is that price declines are always painful, but do not equate to capital losses if investors stay long term and business values remain intact. So bring on some pain and remember that balanced sentiment prolongs any bull's ultimate life. One who buys right must stand still in order to run fast.