Birchtree's Account Talk

[hotwings]

BTU has been on fire the last few days. I see a double within the next 2 years? Coal is not dead.

 

[Birchtree]

Bullish Birinyi gores Shiller P/E and stock market bears - The Tell - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

"Another point that Bogle made in his interview was the importance of focusing on your income stream rather than constantly shifting capital value of your investments."

Bogle's Views On Retirement Income - Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

Buy Bank Of America Now: 5 Simple Reasons - Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

Fisher: Don’t Worry, Keep Buying | The Guru Investor

 

[Birchtree]

I'm watching the infamous VIX today at 13.10 -0.67. This could be a harbinger of a better close.

 

[Birchtree]

July Is The Great Rotation On Steroids - Business Insider

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is still weakening to 12.86 -0.91. We could see a last hour pop for a throw over to SPX 1700. I can use the gains for sure.

 

[rcknfrewld]

hey birch what's the lowest recorded vix number ever

 

[Birchtree]

I think probably around 8 level. We'll be there in about two years.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX has dropped through the door in the floor to 12.59 -1.18 (whew). Perhaps my +300 point gap up is just around the corner. Let's party like it's 1995.

 

[Birchtree]

"If you think you know when this bull market finally comes to an end, you are kidding yourself."

Buy and hold wins again - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

Well cracker be damned - full throttle ahead. My oceanic account (Birchtree 300) was good to me this week: +$5K, -$31K, +$30K, +$59K, +$18K, for a gain of +$81K. Month to date I'm now ahead +$367K and I'll have eight more trading days to push the +$500K mark. Margin will undoubtedly open up next week and allow me to spend some of my unrealized gains without tax consequences - the more I have in the bigger the win. Who knows where it will stop - I'm just going to keep on buying myself into happiness that's for sure. This bull is rewarding me for absorbing pain back in the days of the last bear market - so I'm entitled. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

In the 1990s equity markets in the US rallied as the US dollar rallied as well. The main idea is that under the summer melt-up scenario, do not let currency movements trick you into thinking that a strong dollar is bearish for rquities. If anything, it would further the case for a grand surprise in risk assets into the end of the year. Valuations are setting this market up for a strong 3 to 5 years. My portfolio is structured for this bull market.

 

[Birchtree]

"Amid concerns about the strength of key economies around the globe, America's biggest manufacturers have found some unexpected signs for optimism. General Electric and Honeywell each reported stronger results out of Europe, rising orders from China and bright spots in a sluggish U.S. economy when they delivered their second-quarter earnings reports on Friday. Neither company was ready to declare a global economic recovery, but their results didn't bear out the gloomiest forecasts, either." I funders take note.

 

[rcknfrewld]

how is the vix measured...does the vix lead the market or does the market lead the vix...with the vix this low doesn't that mean less volatility...

 

[Birchtree]

I don't remember how the VIX is calculated and don't care - the VIX often times rolls with the markets but sometimes is predictive. And yes a low VIX indicates reduced premiums for options and that translates into low volatility and complacency. The VIX is just one facet of the investing environment and when it drops into the 10 range there should be peace and tranquility across the board - then the contrarians are put on hyper watch for the inevitable blind side that most always appears out of nowhere. So rest easy for a few more months but remain vigilant....there is always pain with gains. Rejoice at the prospects of lower prices. I plan to get greedy next week and add to my restaurant stocks.

 

[sstasel]

how is the vix measured...does the vix lead the market or does the market lead the vix...with the vix this low doesn't that mean less volatility...

I learned something new. Thanks! VIX - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[rcknfrewld]

did I read that blurry chart on makeupedia correctly...the vix hit 150 in 1987...holy schnikies...in 2008 it appears to have hit 80

 

[Birchtree]

"It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer." There is still plenty of negativism out there - enough for everyone. And I'm just going to keep buying everything I can - expecting margin to open the grey skies sometime this week.