Birchtree's Account Talk

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NiteFlyer said:
We need to get you on a world-wide broadcast. You could single-handedly get everyone to unstuff their mattresses, empty their bond and money market accounts, and dump it all into stocks. Well, everyone except single-celled organisms.
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Which is what the institutional investors are waiting for... waiting... then they are going to sell the heck out of this market... Who knows when, but what for it...
 
A few words of wisdom for the worried folks. Most bull moves do not end when they are hated, they come to a halt and reverse when they become overowned and overloved. Currently the biggest risk is missing the rally extension. Missing a rally of this magnitude is a serious error of omission. I'm seeing a lot of meltup stocks and I own a few of them. The last hour could be real sweet.
 
tom1tom1 said:
What a sucker punch with fv in the I-fund. No fear here, let the good times roll
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Agreed, but this is still a learning experience for me. I don't have your experience with the I Fund and have come to expect this when playing in there. What you see is not what you get.
 
Can you smell it - another triple digit up leg - the smell of panic buying. Uncharted territory is where I want to play. May is going to be good to me.
 
There are still so many nonbelievers even when this market walks on water. Despite recent warnings, that the rally may be over, stock markets face a meltup as institutional investors will now feel obliged to buy to deliver returns. A meltup is the opposite of a meltdown, as investors feel forced to buy in the market so they wouldn't miss profit opportunities. It's difficult to buy a gap up - but anxiety is building and this may only be day #2 of a 25 to 30 day buying stampede.
 
Yup, cyclical bulls within secular bulls are awesome beasts. The bears don't have much of a chance to take this market down and keep it down with the VIX reading in the 12 zone. The lower the VIX goes the bears will have to endure more pain as the market goes higher. "If you approach the current market with an open mind, and with a sense of history, it is nearly impossible to ignore the almost countless reasons to accept the possibility a new bull market is in force - one that could last longer and go further than most can even imagine. Knowing what we know, it is prudent to continue to deploy capital as long as conditions remain favorable."
 
So many good folks heading for the safety of the sugar shack - well Ferdinand likes that. The bus travels faster with fewer on board. The biggest risk now is missing the rally extension. Missing a rally of this magnitude is a serious error of omission. The bull likes to take as few people as possible to higher highs, but I think it is inevitable that mom and pop are ready to rumble. There is a wall of cash out there seeking income earning assets and this wall of money will be supportive of this bull way deep into next year. I bet we'll take out SPX 1620 before we close.
 
Birchtree said:
So many good folks heading for the safety of the sugar shack - well Ferdinand likes that. The bus travels faster with fewer on board. The biggest risk now is missing the rally extension. Missing a rally of this magnitude is a serious error of omission. The bull likes to take as few people as possible to higher highs, but I think it is inevitable that mom and pop are ready to rumble. There is a wall of cash out there seeking income earning assets and this wall of money will be supportive of this bull way deep into next year. I bet we'll take out SPX 1620 before we close.
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1620 EOD is very good. The big boys (Buffet and Gates) are soon to speak to their investors so let's plan on 1620 shall we.
 
My oceanic account did well this week: +$36K, +$29K, -$97K, +$68K, +$83K for a positive gain of +$119K. Next week could be even better. I'm waiting on the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, a 14 year cycle, approaching in late May through mid-July. Jupiter and Neptune are normally very optimistic and hopeful about the future. So far we've had a stock market recovery and not an economic recovery. The stock market moves first and the data follows. It is possible for the internal consolidation on a rotation basis to continue without a substantial decline, or even with prices moving higher - it's a run for the money.
 
If panic buying starts occurring because of all the available liquidity sitting in retail and institutional money market funds, I predict a nice summer rally may still be in the cards. If the market continues to rally, greed may start winning out over fear of loss or the fear of missing out. One of the themes of Jupiter and Neptune conjunction is no boundaries. Anything and everything goes. We could have a very large blow-off upwards in stock prices that lasts many months. Be init to winit.
 
The more chaos yields to orderliness, the more capital will emerge from hiding to return to the stock market. As a contrarian, I have to be brave. I have to be bullish on a future that nearly everyone else thinks is a mess. Sentiment is still way to negative so I have to be bullish. I recommend everyone start thinking about putting some long term money to work giving it at least 4 years to mature. Ralph Acampora is saying the DJIA will be at 20,000 by fall of 2017 - I'll be stinky wealthy by then. Capitalism without failure is like religion without hell. I completed most of my buying over the last several years and am prepared to earn serious gains from the bull. I should possibly by the end of the month have access to my margin balances to begin another series of my buying campaign and I will buy until I drop.
 
I'm looking for the third white soldier to show on Monday. Many will begin to acknowlege that the persistence of the bulls is very reminiscent of 1995 or 2003, when sentiment eventually got stuck in the bullish extreme while prices continued higher. This is going to be the kind of price action that emboldens the bulls and demoralizes the bears. Uncharted territory is so darn exciting. When euphoria and hope eventually sweep the investment community, everyone jumps on the rocket and the sky is the limit - and it will take years to top out. Hoofers, there is an avalanche of cash that is set to slide into the market and it will produce a flood of liquidity unlike anything ever seen before - there is a heck of a spike in values coming. Are the Japanese here yet - just wait. Just remember the market will move in ways that confound the consensus. This rally is shaping up to be extremely powerful. As I've looked back the market didn't pause much on the way down, so why should one expect it to pause on the way up. The technical principle of symmetry would suggest that the recovery will mirror the fall, Are we at a triple top - don't think so. This meltup is really going to kick into full gear - even the CRB is showing life after recession once again. So hoofers let's get busy and ride this wave. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm looking for the third white soldier to show on Monday. Many will begin to acknowlege that the persistence of the bulls is very reminiscent of 1995 or 2003, when sentiment eventually got stuck in the bullish extreme while prices continued higher. This is going to be the kind of price action that emboldens the bulls and demoralizes the bears. Uncharted territory is so darn exciting. When euphoria and hope eventually sweep the investment community, everyone jumps on the rocket and the sky is the limit - and it will take years to top out. Hoofers, there is an avalanche of cash that is set to slide into the market and it will produce a flood of liquidity unlike anything ever seen before - there is a heck of a spike in values coming. Are the Japanese here yet - just wait. Just remember the market will move in ways that confound the consensus. This rally is shaping up to be extremely powerful. As I've looked back the market didn't pause much on the way down, so why should one expect it to pause on the way up. The technical principle of symmetry would suggest that the recovery will mirror the fall, Are we at a triple top - don't think so. This meltup is really going to kick into full gear - even the CRB is showing life after recession once again. So hoofers let's get busy and ride this wave. Snort.
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Damn I like reading your stuff.
 
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