Birchtree's Account Talk

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For the lily padders - have you been left waiting for the second coming? Are you too frightened to take a chance on Ferdinand - you need to put your capital back to work where it can be most rewarded right now and that is equities. Does lingering fear and pessimism have you in a state of catalepsy - well wake up because you are missing a generational opportunity to pump up your retirement levels. Enough of this buyer's strike you've been on because we are now experiencing a new secular bull market and the second coming is here right now.
 
If the S funders take the heavy hit today I may end up a contender for the top 100 zone. I believe we are seeing nothing less than the greatest asset reflation in history. The Fed is on a roll. And bearish sentiment tells me that there is still plenty of cash on the sidelines, capable of fueling additional gains in the stock market for a very long time. Remember that the bond market is ten times larger than the equity market. Are the Japanese really headed this way to buy stocks. Snort.
 
I'm a confirmed permabull which means I'm bullish when the market drops and I'm bullish when the market rises. I took a hit today but I also reinvested 7 dividends. Sometimes the slow money is the best money.
 
But Birch, I thought we were over with steep market selloffs. Yesterday's IFT's were all for G and F funds. Wee didn't get the word.:mad:
 
One needs to keep in mind that the role of a bull market is to keep you out all the way up until the top. On the bright side, if you are psychologically prepared for these inevitable pullbacks they create the best buying opportunities ever seen within uplegs. I got a few golden prices today. I have another 8 dividends paying tomorrow so I'll take my chances. All bull markets face periodic pullbacks and corrections. They are healthy and necessary, rebalancing sentiment away from greed and complacency to ensure an upleg doesn't burn itself out prematurely. The stock market tends to lead economic performance by 6-9 months on average - so a better half is on the horizon.
 
A long winter indeed. Just placed a GTC order to buy certain pile of manure that's a bit unliked right now.

One needs to keep in mind that the role of a bull market is to keep you out all the way up until the top.
Click to expand...

It's kept Tim Wood out for nearly 4 years.
 
One thing to watch for in the stock market is a shift toward higher quality stocks. During the early stages of the rally, money went after the cheap stocks - known as a dash to trash. Now that the rally seems to be maturing, investors may begin like yesterday to take profits in the fast climbing stocks and re-invest in better quality stocks like you find in the C fund. Just because we've had some selling and the market is weaving its way up and down does not mean things are about to fall apart.
 
Today may be day one of another buying stampede - this one may last 25 to 30 days. History tells me that there is a limit to how long fear can paralyze market participants. We are now approaching the limit for the great rotation to begin. I'm having a bowl of clover for lunch and Mindylou wants a bowl too.
 
Birchtree said:
Today may be day one of another buying stampede - this one may last 25 to 30 days. History tells me that there is a limit to how long fear can paralyze market participants. We are now approaching the limit for the great rotation to begin. I'm having a bowl of clover for lunch and Mindylou wants a bowl too.
Click to expand...
200 point pop in the Dow would be nice today.
 
I did buy a couple hundred shares of ANR today - and coal hurts right now but pain makes the investor build character. The more you can build your assets, the more you can afford to risk if you have the fortitude for it. I don't plan to make any gains in coal for several years as I continue to throw money at the sector.
 
We need to get you on a world-wide broadcast. You could single-handedly get everyone to unstuff their mattresses, empty their bond and money market accounts, and dump it all into stocks. Well, everyone except single-celled organisms.
 
Apparently QE is going to be with us a very long time with the possibility of even higher amount buys. There is no place for money to make money - even the ECB cut its' rate today. I'm patiently waiting for panic buying to kick this market much higher into uncharted territory. Optimistic markets can stay optimistic for a long time. Remember 2003 to 2007? The next bubble will be the stock market itself.
 
Is this rally today telling us that a good jobs number is on the horizon - I'm in for 212,000 which is the board high point. The issue is to watch the character of the claims ahead - good numbers today. If we break sustainably to new lows and continue south - we will have the historical message of a "V" recovery. This is what the market is seeing into the future.
 
NiteFlyer said:
We need to get you on a world-wide broadcast. You could single-handedly get everyone to unstuff their mattresses, empty their bond and money market accounts, and dump it all into stocks. Well, everyone except single-celled organisms.
Click to expand...

Ooo a shot across the bow at Amoeba!
 
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