Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
My oceanic account did not want to propitiate and give me a +$200K week - so I take less without complaint: +$31K, +$58K, +$53K, +$27K, -$35K for a grand total of +$134K. Following big runs in the summertime, the stock market does not, on average turn negative in the fall. In a secular bull market trend following approaches work. The stock market can ignore fundamental head winds for a very long time. Fundamentals are long-term drivers of the financial markets. They have no short to medium term predictive value. The very strong momentum of the current stock market rally gives you a clear hint that this rally has the power to ignore a lot of bad news for sometime to come. Mindylou is insistent that we start doing our homework in an effort to have another shopping list ready once margin opens up - the feline knows best.
 
My wife recently received her Q1 report from her FRS defined contribution retirement plan - she had a gain of +$54,000 in the last three months - you go babe. Now it's on to May. Last year May took away -$427,000 from my oceanic account - nasty time that was. It's going to be different this year - I have no idea what my gains will look like. The tugboat continues to row right along as well. I can't wait. Now I have to get over my bad case of Obama fatigue - I can hardly sit down.
 
Birchtree said:
My wife recently received her Q1 report from her FRS defined contribution retirement plan - she had a gain of +$54,000 in the last three months - you go babe. Now it's on to May. Last year May took away -$427,000 from my oceanic account - nasty time that was. It's going to be different this year - I have no idea what my gains will look like. The tugboat continues to row right along as well. I can't wait. Now I have to get over my bad case of Obama fatigue - I can hardly sit down.
Click to expand...

Don't sit down, da'Man has his fingers pointing straight up to your wallet. That might hurt:embarrest:

I'm probably going to bump up my equities a bit before the end of the month, but maybe not. May is usually kinda lousy and I really don't need any more gains for the year to make my target.

But I am a greedy, corporatey, grabby, pig of a chap. And, sitting on the sidelines is the most boring thing in life. So, I gaze afar. Me thinks the Big Cat wants to hunt. And that dang Contrarian Hyena is right behind. And that dang Tree is outrunning me. And, Matrix Man is bouncing off the walls. And, the man of three initials is very serious about his craft. What was I talking about? What is that about outrunning a bear??? Ah, I always have Amoeba. He is very tasty:cheesy:.
 
I'm headed to buy more GFI this morning. Who can't accept huge gains. But you know in order to set yourself up for such gains you have to possess the courage to take an oversize position, maybe even leverage it. That kind of risk takes stomach fortitude. This is the most reluctant bull market I've seen sinced my long investing days. If we don't fall in May talk will change from an imminent pull back and talk more about being forced to add to positions going into the end of the second quarter. Fund manager have a lot on the line to produce performance. I'm seeing more and more mergers and acquisitions - never before have companies piled up cash faster compared with interest costs than they are now. I'm set for another momentum move up.
 
Oh mercy - we just took out the record SPX of 1593.37. Many equity market rallies have stalled within a few months of the first rate rise by the centralk bank. This implies that this rally can last a lot longer, as higher rates are unlikely for another 2 years yet.
 
I believe I herd last week that we've had 14 straight gains for Tuesdays - the odds favor a good and bright tomorrow. That'll take Jimmy Joe to 1600 plus.
 
John Markman says; "investors who are worried that the economy won't advance fast enough or far enough to justify a 20% rise in the stock market this year have it all wrong. Stocks have actually been rising because the recovery has been slow and weak, rather than fast and furious." Goldilocks is what we want. Bulls try to take it up a notch. Numerous markets, including the S&P 500, are possibly on the threshold of issuing some very bullish signals.
 
We have a long term bull break. I like it. You know that breaking a rising trendline is serious. Kiss the Kress because we are about to see an even more amazing stage of the market's recovery. "The vast majority of retail investors have fallen asleep on the broad market recovery since November. The sleepy character of market psychology has become even more pronounced in just the last few weeks as the market spent some time consolidating its gains. In that period of time we've seen quite a few analyst turn bearish on the market, which is usually a big mistake in a year when the dominant yearly Kress cycle is up."
 
Another lousy news conference so I had to mute that turkey. I can only handle so much mendacity. But for those who are still out of the market and looking for a chance to participate in another up leg that has the potential to move prices up another 20%, the next few weeks will probably not be much fun. I think a monster rally is on the horizon - you'll never catch it so get in now.
 
Birchtree said:
We have a long term bull break. I like it. You know that breaking a rising trendline is serious. Kiss the Kress because we are about to see an even more amazing stage of the market's recovery. "The vast majority of retail investors have fallen asleep on the broad market recovery since November. The sleepy character of market psychology has become even more pronounced in just the last few weeks as the market spent some time consolidating its gains. In that period of time we've seen quite a few analyst turn bearish on the market, which is usually a big mistake in a year when the dominant yearly Kress cycle is up."
Click to expand...
The S fund just popped up, like yesterday. It still is a leading indicator. Avast ye matees, Spx 1600 is just about in sight. Just beyond this rise. Still time to get in it. After it hits 1600 the shackles are off. This market will bloom like a rose.
 
Last edited:
I still believe we are heading for a panic rally real soon to offset that 266 point down day two weeks ago. With so many investors looking to buy a pullback, we aren't seeing much of one. Anyone who emotionally panics out of this market will be punished rather than rewarded. Such as it is in investing.
 
My oceanic account managed to clear a +$7K gain for the month of April. Here is what the numbers looked like on a weekly basis: -$150K, +$99K, -$141K, +$134K, +$65K. At least it was better than I did last April. I'm now ahead +$502K for the four month period - providing now that May doesn't destroy me. May has the potential to show an outstanding gain now that we are treading in uncharted territory.
 
Bullitt,

I see you finally dug out from a long winter. I plan to stay and play not just this summer but for the next five years. This mega trend secular bull market is still in its' early cycle. Most economic cycles will be extended to include the Kress cycle. I'll even stay long when interest rates begin to rise but that's years away yet.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
739
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
377
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
197
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
25
Views
1K
nasa1974
nasa1974
tsptalk
  • Article Article
If there is a wall of worry out there, stocks are clearly still climbing it
Replies
1
Views
146
nasa1974
nasa1974
Back
Top