Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"The market doesn't trade on what everybody knows, but on what those with the best information can foresee. There is an explanation for every stock movement somewhere in the future. The market sees something it likes and the reality of what the market sees will eventually become plain and clear to all in due time. The market's economic forecast for the coming months is a positive one and the only one that really matters."

 

[JimmyJoe]

"The market doesn't trade on what everybody knows, but on what those with the best information can foresee. There is an explanation for every stock movement somewhere in the future. The market sees something it likes and the reality of what the market sees will eventually become plain and clear to all in due time. The market's economic forecast for the coming months is a positive one and the only one that really matters."

These days, not much seems to phase me. Tomorrow will come well enough.

 

[FAB1]

These days, not much seems to phase me. Tomorrow will come well enough.

Thats okay, just spell it rite. (its faze)

 

[Birchtree]

I had mentioned a few weeks back that the market would likely be prone to some frightening retracements and today certainly qualifies - but the important fact is to ignore the noise. It's a typical bullish maneuver to shake some people off the course - but staying disciplined is the answer. I should have a few more dividends tomorrow and some left over selling money that I can spend on my favorite commodity stocks. I'm planning my portfolio for three years from now.

 

[Birchtree]

Made a few nibbles this morning buying some gold etfs and some commodities: GDXJ, GFI, MCP, CLF.

 

[Sensei]

How does your story go again? "It was dark out there. Real dark..."

 

[Birchtree]

....and yet we all should have bought more. "Bull markets never make it easy. V ery few traders have the determination, stamina, foresight, and focus to make it all the way through one. But the rewards for the very few that can weather every punch the bull dishes out are huge." I need to go buy some lonely wall flowers.

 

[Birchtree]

A few more nibbles on the lows: MT, GCI, BBG, TITN, MDR. The question is, for long term investors, does the analysis show that buying the day after a panic sell lead to above market returns - usually but not always - hope that helps. I'm just trying to be funny.

 

[jpcavin]

A few more nibbles on the lows: MT, GCI, BBG, TITN, MDR. The question is, for long term investors, does the analysis show that buying the day after a panic sell lead to above market returns - usually but not always - hope that helps. I'm just trying to be funny.

I think you're just being stingy trying to hoard all those wall flowers before anyone else catches on..

 

[Birchtree]

The stock market likes to rise with as few investors as possible on board. Monetary policy is going to stay very easy for several more years - a hesitant economic recovery will see to that. But the bull will continue to anticipate the improvements just over the horizon. It does look like it's happening again, in that a break of both the 20 and 50 day EMA has triggered in more short sellers and we will again see their stop losses taken out which if history is any guide will lead to a new price high in the SPX - we just have to be patient and wait for it. As the stealth bull market of the last four years has gathered space, so has it ironically accumulated more bears pronouncing its imminent demise on every consolidation - this time is no different. I'm ignoring the noise and staying long and strong.

 

[Birchtree]

Ah not another one of those frightening retracement days - bring it to me. However, for those looking to the future remember this. It wasn't until June 2004 that the Fed started raising the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. After that it continued to slowly and steadily raise the Fed funds rate till it reached 5.25% in June 2006. We know that the stock market boom continued in spite of the rate hikes. This bull has a very long life ahead to make many wealthy.

 

[Birchtree]

This market activity wants me to believe I could give up -$200K out of my pocket for the month of April - I will resist that robbery. I now have 60 dividend increase announcements and 1 stock split so far this year. I'm staying with the bull and will just have to wait for my margin access - but it will come and then I'll graze for years going forward. We are in a phenominal bull market that may last decades - can you believe that - hard to see on a day like today or Monday.

 

[Birchtree]

If the SPX can go down 30 points it can easily rebound those same 30 points. The market in its all knowing, all seeing ways is forecasting better times ahead - starting next week of course. Stock market bubbles can be exciting and this one is by no means finished. And I encourage anyone with the adequate nerve and a substantial porfolio to take advantage of this one. There is still enough cash on the sideline to buyout the entire S&P 500. I still believe the economy is improving more quickly than many believe, in a recovery led by inventory rebuilding and capital spending. I suspect we will see a large short squeeze that could erupt at any moment. The sad fact is the longer the rally continues, the greater the pain of not being invested - and there will be more pain to come. The market does discount the future and the stock market always foresees economic reversals well in advance of the government statistics. The public was almost a year behind the curve in the 1995 recovery and history is repeating as I type. Snort.

 

[FAB1]

....and yet we all should have bought more. "Bull markets never make it easy. V ery few traders have the determination, stamina, foresight, and focus to make it all the way through one. But the rewards for the very few that can weather every punch the bull dishes out are huge." I need to go buy some lonely wall flowers.

Bull what? I feels Bear Claws. ouch ouch.

with 80% in I fund your pain must be exquisite the last couple days. lol

 

[FAB1]

and Id be a.damned sight more.encouraged if we had adequate IFTS to trade with.

tsp board u suck!

 

[Birchtree]

Fear and panic means you are now unusually prone to acting on a gut feeling, instead of thinking. Today is another buying opportunity if you dare. Earlier bull markets hold lessons for those investors holding money on the sidelines today. What will happen if they arrest a bomber - shoot the moon would be my guess. I often wish a guy named Stickan was still around - Coolhand knows who I mean. I don't think we'll see anything like a 10% correction this year - Stickan would probably say we will be trending up for a long time. I'm seeing my triple digit moves only in the wrong direction. Sticking with the trend is truly the only way to play the stock market. AAII tells me there is not even a hint of too many bulls (19%) at this point in time. Many are going to miss out on one the the biggest rallies of their lifetime - I can see it happening like clock work. You cannot focus on lagging data.

 

[JimmyJoe]

This market activity wants me to believe I could give up -$200K out of my pocket for the month of April - I will resist that robbery. I now have 60 dividend increase announcements and 1 stock split so far this year. I'm staying with the bull and will just have to wait for my margin access - but it will come and then I'll graze for years going forward. We are in a phenominal bull market that may last decades - can you believe that - hard to see on a day like today or Monday.

I am still not fazed. April is going to come through. There are signs of life in the market even as we speak. It wants to be coy, lead us down the wrong path. I'll wait her out. She'll pop out when she wants to and I'll be there to accept her forgiveness.

 

[tctang75]

I sure hope you boys are right...when the time comes to go long again.

 

[Birchtree]

If you buy you are predicting the market will go up but you don't really know how high and for how long. Rallies usually peak amid buying frenzies, as the last buyers jump in for fear they're missing out and prices rise to levels not justified by earnings projections. I haven't seen anything like that yet - our current consolidation is coming to an end and the rally will resume. The only way to play the stock market is to stay with the trend and the trend has not changed. With only 19% bulls the way is clear. I still believe we are embarking on a new era of virtuous trends - a stronger dollar, a stronger economy, and a stronger equity market. This does go almost completely against the prevailing wisdom, and that is when exciting things happen from the perspective of contrarians like myself.

 

[Birchtree]

So we had two days of 90% down volume - still not going to flush me out. I really, really, don't want to be forced to declare any more profits this year if possible. I believe I have good control of my adjusted gross income and anticipate some medical deductions for next years' taxes. The deduction for my family is still 7.5% above AGI and I can benefit from any deductions. So I'll hang tight.