Birchtree's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Bottom line Birch,

Welcome to the Obama Rally,

Before anyone pines in with "Bernanke Rallly", that has already been in play via QE infinity for many months already, well before January.
Only change to the ingredients the past 3 months have been:

A) Tax hikes on upper incomes
B) Tax hikes for Obamacare
C) Reduced gov't spending via sequester

Each one of those things by themselves were supposed to "kill the economic recovery".
If you believe either side of the aisle, all 3 together should decimate the economy and send us back into a 2nd recession.:toung:
Instead, the 1st 3 months of these things put together have coincided with the best 1st Qtr stock market since the 1990's.
Not to mention several hundred thousand new jobs....near a quarter million new jobs last month....which ironically would have been more except for gov't job reductions.

Goes to show no one should get their economic/investing advice from either MSNBC or FoxNews talking heads.

BTW,
Wanted to give you some kudos Birch...you made a good call the other day regarding markets turning around during the 2nd half of the day on Mr Bowls Acount.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/15754-mrbowls-account-talk.html#post400419

Only 1 of the 3 stock indices finished in the green, and the F fund had a good day...but there was a good turnaround in all stock funds off the morning lows which has led to this current breakout.

Strange...

Yup, market is going up with the rich and the rest of us having less money to invest than four months ago. Why??? Best guess is that Mutual Funds are increasing their equity allocations. That means that mutual funds are investing cash that has been sitting in their system for years. Has there been a boom in new money (not hoarded cash in 'Balanced' mutual funds or hedge funds) moving into equities??? That would be the tell. Don't know, maybe someone here can find out...

As far as the sequester. I think that is a positive market mover. Who want the gooberment to keep spending money it does not have? The Sequester is the first slice taken by the meat cleaver. Hopefully, the agencies can be adult enough to plan for the future slices. Otherwise, the hack will be something very bad - but not for the economy.

 

[nnuut]

Do You really think that there is not enough fat to cut in government that needs to go????????? I worked on DOD for 35 years and I know better, there is more waste just in the DOD to balance the budget, If you cut the waste in all the Gov we would be ahead of the game and not have to cut SSN and Medicare, those politicians have to go! This is just
CRAzy. OBAMA NEEDS TO GO, NOW! :nuts:

 

[JimmyJoe]

Do You really think that there is not enough fat to cut in government that needs to go????????? I worked on DOD for 35 years and I know better, there is more waste just in the DOD to balance the budget, If you cut the waste in all the Gov we would be ahead of the game and not have to cut SSN and Medicare, those politicians have to go! This is just
CRAzy. OBAMA NEEDS TO GO, NOW! :nuts:

Are you saying that the gubment is like social security on steroids? Is that what you are saying? That computers and geographical information systems are enough to put most of the gs 12 thru 15s out of business? Aww common. That next thing you'll be a saying is that this market is the new banking system. I'm going to make some money.

 

[nnuut]

Are you saying that the gubment is like social security on steroids? Is that what you are saying? That computers and geographical information systems are enough to put most of the gs 12 thru 15s out of business? Aww common. That next thing you'll be a saying is that this market is the new banking system. I'm going to make some money.

What I'm saying is that the Waste and Abuse is rampart and needs to be stopped. I used to be a party of the waste but my job was to get as much money for our organization as I could no matter if we needed it or not. You can't BULLSHIT ME!. Let me cut cost in the government and we would be OK! I'm just touching one organization, this thing is systematic!

 

[JimmyJoe]

What I'm saying is that the Waste and Abuse is rampart and needs to be stopped. I used to be a party of the waste but my job was to get as much money for our organization as I could no matter if we needed it or not. You can't BULLSHIT ME!. Let me cut cost in the government and we would be OK! I'm just touching one organization, this thing is systematic!

You're making a gutsy call and I appreciate it. The gs levels in DC are out of control.

 

[Birchtree]

S&P 500's Summer Slumps And Why This Summer Could Be Different - Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

Here is what my oceanic account did on a weekly basis in March: -$7K, +$158K, +$65K, -$46K, +$19K for a solid gain of +$189K - not exactly my initial anticipation but I won't complain. Now in April last year the oceanic went -$44K for the month - let's add another 4 and go for a gain of +$444K this time around. I think there is a distinct possibility to achieve this goal. For the first quarter I'm ahead +$495K - now if I could do that every quarter I'd be ahead nicely like almost +$2M ytd. Is that kind of a gain unreasonable - nah. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

I continue to pump dividend money into my small caps on a daily basis - so this small cap weakness is actually in my favor because building an income stream is a long term objective. I'll sacrifice some short term pain and keep on with DCA. Those good folks concerned with their S fund tracker positions are correct to be concerned - but it won't last - just be patient.

 

[Birchtree]

Be aware that the market does not turn when it sees light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before. I think I might make some tracker progress today. Hesitation in this climate can be costly.

 

[Birchtree]

It appears that margin accessibility is slowly fading from my grasp in the immediate future - but April is a long month yet. I suspect the rebound will be hard and quick.

 

[rspring]

Birch, what would change your mind and sell for capital preservation?

 

[Birchtree]

I'll only sell when the back office girls have me up against the wall with a margin call and I'm a long way away from that scenario. I'm primarily interested in building an income stream that'll hold me nicely during my later years. I'm in the advant guard of dividend income collection - more will follow and new highs are coming.

 

[Birchtree]

"The increased borrowing among the wealthy is not a function of need, but of perceived opportunity. The rich are taking on leverage because they see investment opportunities at historically low rates of interest." Now if I could just get to my margin funds I'd be set to buy many wall flowers.

 

[Birchtree]

Sons of Anarchy the rational move would be to close your eyes and put every dime you don't need right away in stocks. There is a blue moon rising.

 

[JTH]

The S-Fund is under performing the I-Fund

View attachment 23192

 

[Birchtree]

The selloff today could be the climax of a weak week - so bring on the pain so we can move forward next week to further all time highs. I prefer playing in uncharted territory. A day like today will scare mom and pop and create more opportunity for the bulls to romp. As long as the media are hyping job losses, how terrible the economy is, how people are cutting back, how fashion has turned recessionista, and so on, you know it's safe to stay in the stock market. The longer that amateurs and hedge funds are afraid to get back into the stock market, the longer it will be able to rally, and therefore the more elevated it will become in 2013. You just gotta stay with this bull. I'm relatively relaxed about my retirement portfolios and this is hardly the time to hunker down and take bets off the table. It's long term money and I look at it that way. I'm once again staying the course. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

I did manage to get my taxes completed. I left a few mistakes that will be in my favor if I get the audit call - it's actually a small sacrifice to make inorder to balance out any nonreported income gains. I learned this little trick when I had to go through Medicare audits - I could always find an undercharge to offset any overcharges. The question today is does your psychological makeup allow you to take short-term but significant losses in the hope of long-term and outsized investment gains. You bet. By having a disciplined asset allocation and a long-term plan you will prosper in the long run. The rule is the more you can build your assets, the more you can afford to risk if you have the fortitude for it - it comes with age.

 

[Birchtree]

Transports came all the way back today to close on the positive - can't fight the Fed.

 

[Birchtree]

"Japan, for years the most conservative of the major central banks, has come out swinging. The BOJ's new bond-buying program, for example, is more than 60% larger than the Fed's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, as a percentage of gross domestic product. Japanese exporters have applauded the weakening yen, which results in higher profits in yen terms from overseas sales and helps Japan-made goods become more competitive abroad. But a swell of monetary easing could weaken the yen to damaging levels, by yanking up the costs of imports like fuel and commodities. And a fast influx of cash could make bond, stock, and land prices soar." Letting the market come to me - holding 20C and 80I.

 

[Sensei]

The Nikkei's been going buck-wild since Abe took office. And the I fund, well, hasn't. It's all about currency manipulation.

I have been DCA'ing small amounts into the Japan Equity Fund (JEQ) since after the 3/11 disaster though. It pays a very small dividend, and hasn't exactly been scorching, but the recent strength in Japan has rewarded me for collecting shares at a low price. It kind of fits in with your profile of a "wallflower".