Birchtree's Account Talk

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With today's admirable gains I came awfully close to clocking out the previous two days losses in my oceanic account. Tomorrow could very well be a repeat of today - the intraday high on the Dow was at 14,545. With Bernanke providing confirmation we could easily rocket much, much higher from here - not necessarily a spike in buying but a blast off to new levels that will not be retested. So I'm anticipating another explosive move higher to get me closer to liberation and margin accessability.
 
"If you have a little bit left of basic understanding of how the economy works and if you can make that bit of brainwork coincide with a really basic understanding of the Wave Principle, I am pretty sure you will in less than a millisecond grasp that more to the upside is in store for the bulls with common stocks." If there is any wall of resistance up front this market with so much money on the sidelines is going to just keep on plowing right on through.
 
The VIX seems to have gotten a better grip on itself today - no more of +30% moves in two days - that was just crazy.

From Jim Craig: "The important aspects of private retirement over SS are that: you own it and the constitution protects you from confiscation and simple investing principals over 30-40 years will provide 2-3X levels of retirement payments relative to SS." Now ain't that real. You don't own your annuity.

Social Security should own equities - Encore - MarketWatch
 
Chance favors the prepared mind so I'll take my hit today and not complain. My dividend stream continues and dollar cost averaging is buying no matter the price.
 
I've been dollar cost averaging into Cheniere Energy (LNG) since $8.30 to $17.00 and finally ran out of money. It is now pushing $26 - that's a missed opportunity out of my hands. It does take money to play this game and I'm still patiently waiting for margin to open up. After today I'll have to wait awhile longer. Ah, so what. Better days are ahead after we base.
 
As some may be aware I'm not real positive on the S fund currently - even though my Birchtree 300 oceanic account is probably 90% composed of small caps. The difference from the S fund is that I can groom individual equities as needed at harvest time. When in the S fund you have to roll as it rolls and it is beginning to show signs of underperformance. The relative performance of small-caps stocks to large caps is now far above long-term averages and time may be running out if history has anything to say about it. The relationship between large-company stocks and smaller ones has tended to move in long-term cycles. At certain periods, such as during the 1990s, large caps have outperformed small caps. Since early 2000 the trend has moved in the other direction - has time run out on small caps? It's simply playing the odds of these cycles. I prefer the large caps found in the C fund and I fund for my tugboat.
 
AAPL getting ready to pop its' 50 day moving average - that could bring in the technical buyers and push the S&P higher into the 1565 area.
 
GOOD TIMES falsely stimulated by currency manipulation and stacking the deck with sideways market stimulation (QE), when it implodes it Will be a bad one. Enjoy it while you can.:sick:
 
nnuut said:
GOOD TIMES falsely stimulated by currency manipulation and stacking the deck with sideways market stimulation (QE), when it implodes it Will be a bad one. Enjoy it while you can.:sick:
Click to expand...

That's my goal. I just hope that I see the signs when/if things begin to unravel. In the meantime, it's too painfull to wait on the sidelines for catastrophe while plenty of folks roll in the money they are making in the market.
 
I'm rolling but I didn't make much money today thanks to the underperformance of my small caps - oh well there's always next week. Assets aren't as cheap as they were a few months ago. But it's possible they could go straight up from here, beyond any sensible value. For investments, the story hasn't changed...it's only gotten better. Stay all in. Sit tight. Don't cut and run. I'm an uninhibited bull with plenty of bias. Bottom line - the current situation in advance of any rising interest rates is highly bullish for stocks for several more years. More daily rallies ahead that may eventually lead to an ultimate peak before a new sell leg to correct the overbought divergence situations.
 
Two bulls on CNBC this morning calling for SPX of 1700 and 1760 by year end - that would just about put me in clover for a very pleasant retirement.
 
It looks like another trading day where large caps are taking the lead - I'm holding out for Dow 14,973 by April 9th - that should get me closer to margin availability.
 
I now have acquired 54 dividend increase announcements ytd - last year the total was 136. A dividend increase takes into account all accumulated shares and is like getting a raise. It's a wondefrul self feeding system if you have patience.
 
You continue to be right, Birch.

The dividend position/goal you have is enviable. It is indeed a great way to create wealth. It becomes self perpetuating and eventually it's own increases far out-weigh new contributions.

The only thing you do that I don't have a stomach for is the use of margin - bad memories of the dot-com bust. In fact, I got a huge margin call due to 9/11. Maybe some day...

Even tho people kid you, until you are wrong you are on a 4-year winning streak.
 
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