Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I wish Friday hadn't ended so soon - we could have kept the record intact for positive day #11. The oceanic did OK this week: +$10K, -$13K, +$7K, +$51K, +$10K for a sound gain of +$65K. I'm now ahead +$216K on the month with 10 more trading days to run. Could March be a +$400K month - we'll see. If I get that gain I'll be free to romp with Ferdinand in the margin arena. I'm prepared to buy myself some happiness - I mean serious happiness. I just added my gains ytd and I'm +$522K - at that rate I should bust through the +$1M before June and then what - give it all back in a correction - I don't think so but maybe.

 

[Birchtree]

Not to be braggadocio but +$1M seems a little whimpy especially if I'm going to be throwing money down the well - margin will provide multi-thousands of more shares that will gain value as the rally rolls to even higher highs. I'll just play the market as hard as possible and make as much as any reasonable person should anticipate. But a Dow close near 17,000 should certainly levitate the oceanic to new sums.

 

[Birchtree]

Is Another Bullish Push In The Cards? | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

"Kudlow: Optimism is in the air."

Kudlow: Optimism Is in the Air

 

[nnuut]

Birch I never post in your thread because I always know which way you are going, I listen to Kudlow all the time and usually agree with him, but think he's not taking one thing into consideration, ObamaCare! Doing something like this in a period fiscal chaos is CRAZY. This kind of spending should only be done in periods of an expanding economy.

 

[Birchtree]

"Richard Russell, a newsletter writer who has been penning the 'Dow Theory Letters' since 1958, is now advising his clients to buy stocks, an about face for someone who had been pretty bearish for much of the four-year old bull market."

Morning MarketBeat: Another Bear Bites the Dust - MarketBeat - WSJ

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

"Richard Russell, a newsletter writer who has been penning the 'Dow Theory Letters' since 1958, is now advising his clients to buy stocks, an about face for someone who had been pretty bearish for much of the four-year old bull market."

Morning MarketBeat: Another Bear Bites the Dust - MarketBeat - WSJ

Yes, and there has been many Dow Theory buys that have turned into losses. No "signal" is a guarantee.

 

[Birchtree]

Equity Rally Sustainability: What To Look For

 

[Birchtree]

RMI,

What will you say to me when my oceanic account pulls down over +$3M for the year. Anyone can do that I suspose is what you'll say. You need to get in the game and do it now. C'mon take my hand and walk through all this darkness because there is money to be made - lots of it.

 

[Birchtree]

Employment Indicators Supporting Market Advance | Chris Puplava | FINANCIAL SENSE

 

[Birchtree]

Will today be a classis bull market kind of day where there is an early dump and then a chase into the close. Who really cares about Cyprus bank depositors - I don't. There is apparently a lot of Russian money tucked away that will now pay a tax - so sorry.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX was up +2.00 on the open - what kind of nonsense is that. People nervous over nothing. Let'em run for the hills.

 

[JimmyJoe]

The VIX was up +2.00 on the open - what kind of nonsense is that. People nervous over nothing. Let'em run for the hills.

I honestly wonder why BT bothers trying to give a true assessment of the market, unto deaf ears. SPX 1887.

 

[MrBowl]

If that private acct money in Cyprus is confiscated then the ECB could easily do it again in Spain, Italy, Greece, France, etc. The best bet for Europeans, then is to buy U.S. equities

 

[Birchtree]

"One of Wall Street's more notable bears has joined the ranks of bullish stock market strategists with a call that the rally in U.S. stocks has plenty of room to run. Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker, who has been among the gloomiest of the major brokerage house stock strategists, planted his flag Monday in the bullish camp." Wells Fargo strategists are saying the SPX will be at 2000 by the end of 2014. Catch the wave higher and earn wealth while the sun shines. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

"When this somewhat short Cycle wave (1) concludes, estimated to top in late winter/early spring 2014, a nasty short bear market should follow. Then the Cycle wave (3) bull market to follow should last two to three decades. There is still plenty of time to get prepared."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39525.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Getting a market to fall from high levels, even extreme levels of overbought across the many different important time frames can take a long time. You wonder why it simply won't fall hard for a while. It makes sense after all. The problem is the small retail player."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39543.html

 

[Birchtree]

I prefer not to sell unless I'm backed into a corner by the backoffice girls monitoring margin accounts - I'll probably take some profits at some point but prefer to let my dividends dollar cost average any lows that may transpire. I don't want to boost my AGI any time soon other than qualified dividend income. I'll have to start taking required minimum distributions from my tugboat (TSP) in another four years. My wife will undoubtedly retire in another year so I can transfer capital gains to replace her income. She has a defined contribution retirement plan and isn't required a minimum distribution for another ten years. It's all in the planning to keep what you earn away from the liberals.

 

[FAB1]

It's all in the planning to keep what you earn away from the liberals.

They are organized so better stay on your toes!

 

[Birchtree]

Looking back over the last number of years as a hard-core optimist the Dow's horrific 7728 point plunge from the October 2007 high, has been a mere correction in a long-term bull market begun in August 1982. Will this new mega trend secular bull market peak in 2031 - whew that would be grandiose. Not many people are riding the I fund for gains and that's classic. What happens in one of the world's export machines is critical to the euro-zone and other economies. If Germany is on its way to stronger than expected growth there are a number of ramifications, largely positive. Don't forget that you will be perennially late if you wait to invest until it feels easy or comfortable to do so - amoeba I'm talking to you. Now let's see if the stock market will embark on a torrent of buying and a strong rally.