Birchtree's Account Talk

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Optimism inevitably drives capital inflows. The best investment returns are made by anticipating major economic change before it happens - something like the great rotation out of bonds to come will satisfy me. " It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting, got that. My sitting tight." If the jobs number shows anything above 200,000 we are off to the races and could easily see a 20 point SPX or higher. Money is percolating and many have already missed this bull run so now is the time to chase performance. Just do it. There is nothing above the indexes but air purified with the sweet smell of superlative bull manure.
 
Sticking to a long term strategy is key to generating solid long term returns. Eventually the shift in market leadership will take place, and when it does, the advantage that large cap has over small cap will be enormous. Dividend money is already starting to flow back to investors in a big way - this is the second year. So I'll buy and hold my 80I position and wait for the returns to catch up with reality. It wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745 by year end. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872 - it'll be a fun year for sure. And for you my dear friend, the more instability and volatility, the better. It provides for more long-term investment opportunity. If it's 1995 all over again the set backs will be very shallow. So we'll see what the rest of the year brings - let's make money and enjoy a little fun.
 
Alrighty I hit the number so now give me a +$100K day if you please. A strong report at 236,000 jobs - don't believe for a second that the stock market bulls are going to throw in the towel for any reason. Bring on the fun.
 
The Transports are at 6175 which I believe is +45 points - the Dow will most likely follow the same trajectory before the day ends. Then all we have to worry about is Monday. The stock market has become, if anything, a liquidity gauge first and a discounting machine second. The fundamental that matters most is how much money is flowing into the machine. The flood of capital will propel this market much higher. So says my investment adviser - Mindylou.
 
I can't believe the market has only been open for two hours - I'm already tired from all the activity. The I fund should shine today. I may not make my +$100K unless things perk up later and we see some parabolic acceleration as big money decides to buy.
 
FWM,

Republican prospects for taking the Senate brightened with Michigan Democratic Sen. Levin's announcement that he won't run for re-election. Now that's some good news.
 
No kidding - the S&P 500 rally from March 09 is the 6th best rally since 1929. Here are a few words from my WSJ. "Global investors are piling into Japan at the fastest rate in several years, sending the stock market up 5.8% this past week to a post-financial crisis high as the yen ectended its slide. Fueled by signs the world's third-largest economy is emerging from a recession, overseas investors bought 4.2 trillion yen ($44.3 billion) of Japanese shares over the past 16 weeks, according to government data. Key to the changing sentiment has been the plunging yen, which hit a fresh three year-low of 95.45 per dollar Friday, helping boost Japan's big export sectors. The currency fell 2.6% for the week as investors dumped yen before Haruhiko Kuroda takes over ay the Bank of Japan next month. He is widely expected to undertake aggressive action that may include open ended asset purchase programs designed to push bond yields down, boost the supply of money in the banking system and spur lending to businesses. Japan is in a sweet spot right now." One reason I like that I fund.
 
So let's see, U.S. companies are showering (spring showers) investors with a record windfall in the form of dividends and share buybacks, helping to propel the stock market's rally. Companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to pay at least $300 billion in dividends in 2013 which would top last year's record of $282 billion last year. I had 136 dividend increase announcements last year and so far this year I'm sitting at 50. I bet I'll beat last year. "Stocks have recovered with the aid of the Federal Reserve's aggressive efforts to boost the economy, strengthening corporate profits and a reinvigorated housing market. If you look at the equity market when we were at the same point back in 2007, two key sectors - housing and financials - were clearly rolling over, said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management. This time, the homebuilding sector is taking off and the financial sector seems to be puting its big issues behind it." Sure would like to see a real big gap open tomorrow to the upside as a late acknowledgement to the nice jobs numbers. Hope springs eternal.
 
Birchtree said:
So let's see, U.S. companies are showering (spring showers) investors with a record windfall in the form of dividends and share buybacks, helping to propel the stock market's rally. Companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to pay at least $300 billion in dividends in 2013 which would top last year's record of $282 billion last year. I had 136 dividend increase announcements last year and so far this year I'm sitting at 50. I bet I'll beat last year. "Stocks have recovered with the aid of the Federal Reserve's aggressive efforts to boost the economy, strengthening corporate profits and a reinvigorated housing market. If you look at the equity market when we were at the same point back in 2007, two key sectors - housing and financials - were clearly rolling over, said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management. This time, the homebuilding sector is taking off and the financial sector seems to be puting its big issues behind it." Sure would like to see a real big gap open tomorrow to the upside as a late acknowledgement to the nice jobs numbers. Hope springs eternal.
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No doubt. We'd like to have a break through Monday. I've decided to set it and forget it during this bull market. I'm going to have some real luck throughout this year. I'm going to make some money. So here's how I'll do it. I'll look at stocks a few times in the morning, not making any moves, and being in it to win it. Then I'll go out with the wife, enjoy the Spring air, walk down to eat and hang out at my favorite Lebanese restaurant for a few hours, spending $30 bucks. Then I'll come back to see that I'll have made 10 times that amount by not intervening with my fund allotments. I'll make this a habit. I'll make $300 by enjoying my life, spending 1/10th of that. So how's that for a game plan?! I think it makes perfect sense for an over amped trader such as myself. Really. My best days or weeks are when I do nothing as the markets rise, or as they take off like a rocket. I think tomorrow will bring all of us who may be in the market, great joy. And to those out of it, there's always another day. Peace.
 
Last edited:
Buy and hold does infact require a decision. Sometimes you have to stand still to run fast as they say.
 
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