Birchtree's Account Talk

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A few tidbits from my WSJ: Investors still pushing money to stock funds. Sums in long-term mutual funds rose by $14.33 billion in the latest week, as investors added money to stock mutual funds for the fourth consecutive week, according to the Investment Company Institute. Investors had pulled money from U.S. equities for most of 2012 but started 2013 by plowing back into stock funds.

Shades of '80s for Japan's stocks. Yen's slide and the prospect of bold steps by the BOJ have vaulted shares 32% since mid-November. More to come to help the I fund.
 
When you consider the trading level the Dow is at, a -95 point day is actually a minimal percentage loss. And it can disappear in a woosh to the upside. Don't take your eyes off the tape for a moment.
 
This is news that I've been planning for - from my WSJ: U.S. Coal Steams Offshore. "Newport News, VA - On 67 acres here along the James River, almost 800,000 tons of coal tower in two-story high stacks, ready to go overseas. The shipping terminal is so busy that this past Christmas Day, workers volunteered for lucrative overtime to load a bulk carrier. ....it's a surprising boom. For all the troubles of the U.S. coal industry at home, its business with the rest of the world is brisk. Last year, the U.S. set a record for coal exports at more than 120 million tons, double what it exported as recently as 2009.

The boom isn't about feeding the voracious appetite of China and India - not yet. Instead American coal mined in the eastern U.S. and shipped overseas goes overwhemingly to Europe, especially the U.K., the Netherlands and Italy. British coal consumption for electricity rose about 50% in the third quarter of 2012 compared with 2011, as power producers there found coal cheaper than natural gas. U.S. coal is finding a ready market in countries where natural gas is three to five times more expensive." Coal is now black gold my friends and I'm loading up with considerable losses already intact because I like pain.
 
Another quote from my WSJ: "For now, though, the gloomy images of a coal-industry in decline feel far away in Hampton Roads. This cheap natural gas may be the best thing that's ever happened to this nation, when all's said and done, and this is coming from a coal person."
 
Birchtree said:
Another quote from my WSJ: "For now, though, the gloomy images of a coal-industry in decline feel far away in Hampton Roads. This cheap natural gas may be the best thing that's ever happened to this nation, when all's said and done, and this is coming from a coal person."
Click to expand...

I tend to agree with you. Now if we could just export it...
 
Birtch,

Thanks for the info... I too have been sucking wind with coal companies, specifically BTU. I have been DCA in down here in the low 20s as I wait for BTU to catch fire. BTW, I bought BAC at $17 and then at $7 and I'm finally in the green. I believe the same will happen with BTU so I'm loading up now before the train leaves the station.
 
I had a cash merger buyout of my Titanium Metals that leaves me with some buying power so buying today: CE, VHI, TRW, JCI, BAC. So many wall flowers to purchase and so little cash, but margin is going to open real soon and then I'll go crazy throwing money away. Now is the time to buy as we head to higher highs and when you look back you'll realize today's prices are cheap.
 
Thankyou Uncle Ben - keep that liquidity coming until 2015. It is the lack of liquidity that causes bear markets. The price patterns continue to get stronger and stronger - not needing as much down time to regroup. Given that the DJIA A/D line is now at an all-time high, the chances of the DJIA itself making a top soon is relatively remote. But you must be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher we go. Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. Not a reason to cut and run.
 
The VIX now at 12.91 -0.57 has the SPX coiled for a move to 1520 and why not. Under Elliott guidelines breadth should be ready to expand exponentially and if you look at the NYAD line has been moving up over the last 5 months like a runaway train, this is the kind of thing that should continue for awhile longer. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
Thankyou Uncle Ben - keep that liquidity coming until 2015. It is the lack of liquidity that causes bear markets. The price patterns continue to get stronger and stronger - not needing as much down time to regroup. Given that the DJIA A/D line is now at an all-time high, the chances of the DJIA itself making a top soon is relatively remote. But you must be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher we go. Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. Not a reason to cut and run.
Click to expand...

I'm in agreement with most of your statements. This market is looking strikingly like 2012, where it became overbought on virtually every technical measure, but continued to go up for several more months as Uncle Ben pumped the carburators with ignition fluid. This market does not appear to want to go down yet. All in due time...
 
MrJohnRoss said:
I'm in agreement with most of your statements. This market is looking strikingly like 2012, where it became overbought on virtually every technical measure, but continued to go up for several more months as Uncle Ben pumped the carburators with ignition fluid. This market does not appear to want to go down yet. All in due time...
Click to expand...

probably until march im guessing, they're already creating the debt ceiling bogeyman, it's up to congress / white house when they want to unleash the scare. it will undoubtedly have an effect on the market
 
Don't be so sure about any intense consolidation because of the sequester noise - the White House has cried wolf too many times already and smart folks don't pay any attention to their nonsense and lack of leadership.
 
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