Birchtree's Account Talk

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This is in no way trying embarrass Birchtree as we have all been wrong many times before, but for you market timers out there who may be newbies or lurkers thinking you have stumbled on the wisdom of an old timer who is going to make you rich, you have to understand that Birchtree has the same sentiment every day of every year for many years.

From a technical standpoint, I'm riding the bull myself right now, but I can change my tune as soon as the charts tell me to. But Birchtree won't change his tune. For those who heard the same rhetoric in 2007 and followed along, well they remember what happened. Investors may want to follow along as it is the buy and hold play, but market timers who would prefer to avoid losses, read on.....

From an October 2007 post in this thread, and there are many more like it. A little sarcasm to those who were bearish at the time and the site's new motto of "friends don't let friends buy and hold"...

Birchtree said:
The Birchtree has prepared a testimonial. The big bull hopefully is soon entering a new dawn of relevancy. After searching my conscience and having a serious consultation with my butt buddy Ferdinand, I've decided that in order for this renegade contrarian to achieve the warmth of comradeship and true acceptance on the MB I should voluntarily change my investment style. It was recommended that I join the lush meadow of bunny hoppers and fall in line behind the more notable and notorious momentum chasing timers that practice their skills here. I want to be a brethren and belong to my extended family of crusading timers. I will atone and indulge myself in the merits of CP. I like the new motto "Friends don't let friends buy and hold". Therefore, there will be no more meretricious type behaviors from me. I will refrain from harassment of the fearful and negative leaning crowd with my pedantic harangues. My tendentios bullishness has become an annoyance to some to the point of animosity toward the big bull. I'll try and be less fatuous and more gratious in the future - my 12 step program will be completed in the spring. A new adventure with the promise of greater profits.
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http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/1510-birchtrees-account-talk-98.html#post121163

Just be careful about blindly following someone just because they sound confident.

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No disrespect intended, B. I'm wrong often. This is just a warning to the lurkers.
 
Well that was a good read - I wanted to change my stripes but couldn't muster up. I'm comfortable with my strategy and it has been rewarding even during bear markets. Yes we all make mistakes but I took opportunity and loaded up the truck back then and came out whole. Dollar cost averaging is the savings grace - but now that I no longer make contributions I'll rely on you to get me to the G fund when the time is right. Thanx for all you do.
 
Birchtree said:
Well that was a good read - I wanted to change my stripes but couldn't muster up. I'm comfortable with my strategy and it has been rewarding even during bear markets. Yes we all make mistakes but I took opportunity and loaded up the truck back then and came out whole. Dollar cost averaging is the savings grace - but now that I no longer make contributions I'll rely on you to get me to the G fund when the time is right. Thanx for all you do.
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You are a brave man, and I mean that sincerely. Nothing seems to scare you... or offend you, and that is admirable. I have been a gambler in many parts of my life, and while I don't agree with your strategy, your investing approach is nothing if not fearless. Fear is probably what holds me back from reaching your level of success. Good luck.
 
I was scared in October 1987 when the market crashed 20% in one day - I took the next day off from work and watched FNN ready to dump my life down the drain - but when I realized it was all computer driven like a runaway train - I held and at that point I realized I was in fact a true contrarian. The market soon reversed and I was fine - but fear I realized could be fought with triumph.
 
tsptalk said:
...No disrespect intended, B. I'm wrong often. This is just a warning to the lurkers.
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I enjoy reading BT's, as well as several other's, posts on here. I mainly base my decisions on various stock charts, business news, and gut feeling. Even if the market were to drop 20%, I still want to see BT making the same posts. If someone were as much bearish and wrote with BT's flair, I'd enjoy reading them just as much :)
 
NiteFlyer said:
I enjoy reading BT's, as well as several other's, posts on here. I mainly base my decisions on various stock charts, business news, and gut feeling. Even if the market were to drop 20%, I still want to see BT making the same posts. If someone were as much bearish and wrote with BT's flair, I'd enjoy reading them just as much :)
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Amoeba was excellent at drafting reasons why the market would go down. Only the fearfull would follow his advice. I ought a know, I was one of them. Why read anything from those that block strong positive thinking? Me? I note those that are "dissing" the market. I dont spend too much time reading their stuff any more. They're the wind beneath my wings. More like the earth below my soaring flight. But where are Ameoba's posts today? Come on Amoeba. Get in the market. This market, whether good or bad, and it's great right now, must be won over by a winner's clear thinking first, their heart second, then by which funds they place their hard earned money. Go Ravens. I'm near Baltimore, but the market will do a little better if San Fransisco wins. Either way, Monday is gonna be a great day in the market. Good luck everyone!
 
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everyone's risk tolerance is different. if you're the type that's overly fearful of the market and will stress over it if you're invested, it's better to take a conservative approach like amoeba. nothing wrong with that, different strokes for different folks.

some people are cool with consistent 5-7% gains for the year, some want more than that but also run the risk of going -20% for the year. years like that could be disaster for those close to retirement, though while you're young don't be afraid to go long haha. though i personally know some people who were unable to retire because of 2008, were too aggressive while they were about to retire. if they were a little more fearful then, they wouldn't have had to work 5 more years, sometimes fear is a good thing if it doesn't override sound investment decisions.
 
I remember back in December 2008 my broker #7 (young spud) called me up and recommended I sell everything right in the middle of so much blood. I said that was the stupidist GD thing I've ever heard, why don't I just bend over. Needless to say to make a long story short - I cashed about $800K in cds and showed him some shock and awe and bought anything that was smelly and wounded. They eventually kicked me out of Merrill Lynch for being too risky - and you know who came within $24K of making $2M in two years. I'm glad to be done with those fools. Eventually Bank of America bought them so I'm still using their money on margin - now that's karma.
 
Birchtree said:
I remember back in December 2008 my broker #7 (young spud) called me up and recommended I sell everything right in the middle of so much blood. I said that was the stupidist GD thing I've ever heard, why don't I just bend over. Needless to say to make a long story short - I cashed about $800K in cds and showed him some shock and awe and bought anything that was smelly and wounded. They eventually kicked me out of Merrill Lynch for being too risky - and you know who came within $24K of making $2M in two years. I'm glad to be done with those fools. Eventually Bank of America bought them so I'm still using their money on margin - now that's karma.
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after taking that kind of loss, might as well stay in and buy more bc markets eventually recover. better to avoid the drop and buy more when there's blood on the streets though, that's my belief anyway. I'm cool with moving to safety after taking a small loss, but getting slammed a la 2008-2009 might as well stay in and keep buying until the market recovers
 
My oceanic produces income that is reinvested at any price. The lower the prices the more income shares accumulated. I continue to follow the same strategy today and that will keep me comfortable in my later years - it's the income stream I want. Capital gains will take care of themselves. Now that we are back in a secular bull market I'll end up paying more to accumulate fewer shares - unless the money is going into the coal patch, there is great value there. Now I'll have opportunity to access my margin and that will open up new frontiers and profits. It's an excellent time to be long.
 
The stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at roughly 14 times earnings for this year. I'd hate to speculate where the S&P 500 would be selling when the normal range of 20 is achieved. Anyway Oscar says the market is astronomically bullish - and I can smell it.
 
Birchtree said:
I remember back in December 2008 my broker #7 (young spud) called me up and recommended I sell everything right in the middle of so much blood. I said that was the stupidist GD thing I've ever heard, why don't I just bend over. Needless to say to make a long story short - I cashed about $800K in cds and showed him some shock and awe and bought anything that was smelly and wounded. They eventually kicked me out of Merrill Lynch for being too risky - and you know who came within $24K of making $2M in two years. I'm glad to be done with those fools. Eventually Bank of America bought them so I'm still using their money on margin - now that's karma.
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Damn. That's just awesome. I'm through with my civil service years. Now I can concentrate makin money. I can jam everything I have into equities and watch the flowers grow. I'm feeling it. Really, it's like being in a zone. Only it's better because it's money.
 
Here are a few tid bits from my WSJ. On Friday, the Wilshire 5000 index, a broad measure that captures the returns of thousands of U.S. stocks, closed at 15,979.16, the second all-time high it set this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are within 1.1% and 3.4% respecttively, of the record highs they set on Oct. 9, 2007. That means a long drought is tantalizingly close to ending. Between August 1982 and August 1987, the S&P 500 closed at all-time peak prices 152 times. From October 1990 through March 2000, the S&P 500 closed at record highs on another 308 days. Can you smell the potential. Since March 9, 2009, when this bull market started, the S&P hasn't yet hit a single all-time high. That feels long overdue, and investors are aching for it to happen.

Still, the S&P remains 2% below where it stood in March 2000. The price/earnings ratio, or the multiple that investors are willing to pay for a dollar of corporate profits, has gone from 28 to 15. In those 13 years, earnings have doubled, the price is the same and the multiple's been cut in half. The average bull market - defined as a rise in price of at least 20% - has produced a gain of more than 160% and lasted 56 months. The biggest, from 1990 to 2000, lasted 113 months and rose 417%. This bull market is 47 months old and up 122%.
 
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