Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I'm a little disappointed that I did not meet my January whisper number. Here is what my oceanic account did on a weekly basis during January: 1/+$185K, 2/-$11K, 3/+$60K, 4/+$85K, 5/-$19K for a good gain of +$304K. Now if I can do the same for February I'd be in clover with Ferdinand. In February 2012 I took in +$128K - gotta do better than that this time around. Jimmy Joe looks for a pullback soon - the beginning stages of a bull market generally don't give people the opportunity to position into a pullback. I'd prefer any strong pullback arrive in March so I can get more golden pricing with my dividends. I'm staying heavy with the I fund because focusing on European firms that have global businesses can be a way to tap into emerging market growth while paying less. A slow GDP number - when things don't fall apart on bad news, you know that the marketr is no longer vulnerable. So I'm waiting on a buying panic to set the bears straight - the market is telling me something good is out there down the road and around the corner - I just don't know about it yet.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I'm a little disappointed that I did not meet my January whisper number. Here is what my oceanic account did on a weekly basis during January: 1/+$185K, 2/-$11K, 3/+$60K, 4/+$85K, 5/-$19K for a good gain of +$304K. Now if I can do the same for February I'd be in clover with Ferdinand. In February 2012 I took in +$128K - gotta do better than that this time around. Jimmy Joe looks for a pullback soon - the beginning stages of a bull market generally don't give people the opportunity to position into a pullback. I'd prefer any strong pullback arrive in March so I can get more golden pricing with my dividends. I'm staying heavy with the I fund because focusing on European firms that have global businesses can be a way to tap into emerging market growth while paying less. A slow GDP number - when things don't fall apart on bad news, you know that the marketr is no longer vulnerable. So I'm waiting on a buying panic to set the bears straight - the market is telling me something good is out there down the road and around the corner - I just don't know about it yet.

I'll take good info when I can get it. You are right Birch. The sentimental survey looks like a buy for next week. I ain't arguing. All in at the first opportunity and I'm holding. Thanks for the realignment. I'm so tired of out thinking the market. It's right all the time.

 

[Birchtree]

"Nearly 80% of all stocks move in tandem with the larger overall market. That means that through a combination of the January Barometer signaling a bullish signal for 2013 and the stock market pushing through historic highs, this secular bull market could pull the majority of stocks to higher price levels."

Stock Market 2013: Does January Barometer Signal Dow at 15,140? - Money Morning

 

[FishinFool]

I fund, my fund of choice, showing some signs of life at the end of the day. Probably break even with fair value. The S fund will look nice to small time investors till first week of Feb. Then the hook will grab them, and that's not just my own opinion. And yeah, I lost a little by takin most of my remaining F fund money out of the F fund yesterday but at least I shook myself from that baggage. I don't think that fund has got any real strength for the rest of the year, just the occasional "head fake." Come Feb, I'm 25 C, 20 S, 45 I. I may wait a day or two, or maybe not, just dive in with a good, uplifting jobs report. There's going to be a sell off soon, and if the Feb seasonal chart keeps true to form it'll happen the middle of next week. Trading sucks though. Wish I could keep the investors mentality. Well, I don't look like much now, starting on the tracker hit parade at the middle of the month, but I've got my Jan pip to keep me warm. Buyers bethere, and I've got to be one. You've got to be in it to win it.

Might as well announce here first, after really getting into this market timing thing and trying diligently, then doing additional reading recently... I am getting to be convinced that buy/hold/recalibrate infrequently is a better overall strategy, at least for me. Motley Fool in particular has really talked down market timing (boy they cap on it) and while who's to say they're entirely correct, they and others refer to various studies out there purporting to show that buy/hold beats market timing over the long term. Based on my own experience, I've made some good calls but have also been burned a number of times. It sure is easy to miss significant up-spikes while trying to anticipate (or escape ongoing) downturns, esp. with the TSP and "close of business" nature of IFT timing. That can just be a killer over the long term, even with a few net bad buy/hold years thrown in. I think if I can escape to G or F during periods of very clear and extended downturn that will be enough. Don't get me wrong it's a lot of fun to analyze the charts and try to guess market movement and all... I think it's just generally not for me. Probably gonna stick with the L2050 for the most part, or maybe a fairly even C,S,I combo instead. Good luck to all the hard core timers and opinions vary but I do encourage further reading/research on these issues and esp. for TSPers facing a long term investment period (not near retirement)...my eyebrows definitely went up. I will observe one other thing, there are some people with very impressive scores in the 2012 Autotracker who are showing a similar number the previous year... in the negative!! Just saying. Peace all and Birchtree I will be studying your strategies even more now Time to adopt a long term investing rather than day by day/week by week trading strategy.

 

[Birchtree]

The long term supply/demand balance in the market favors the bull side of the market for the foreseable future. It is the combination of higher earnings and a rising price to earnings ratio that always characterises the best years in the market. Sam Eisenstadt, the long time former Value Line research director, says he thinks stocks are going to keep moving upward in the next six months. Futures holding strong for today.

 

[Birchtree]

The market is capitulating to the idea that the Fed is going to keep the funds rate near zero all throughout the coming year and perhaps into 2015. We are going to see more wild swings to the upside that is serving to convince people that the secular bear market is over and that a new secular bull market has begun. Two years ago, experts were saying it would take years for ordinary people to recover the losses they suffered from the horrific stock market decline at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009. But a study from Fidelity indicates that many ordinary investors are quite well - as long as they didn't panic and kept putting money into the market. How is this possible? Mostly because the huge fall in the stock market created a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Investors who continued to contribute to TSP were able to buy stocks at very low prices. When the market rallied, the returns poured in.

 

[Birchtree]

My gut is tight today as the ISM results blow the market through the roof. ISM of 53.3% vs 49.7% in Dec. It's a great time to be in risk assets. There is one thing that never changes in the investment world. When you buy solid companies and reinvest the dividends you can build true wealth. Corporate profits are still growing and that's what's moving prices higher. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Mindylou is telling me to be prepared for more triple digit gains - many will be back to back. February could be hotter than January. Money is going to flow like vodka.

 

[rktect1]

I like you bt. But you are too overly optimistic for me to trust. But like I said I think your alright. Keep making millions.

 

[Birchtree]

Trust but verify - is not the main issue. It all goes back to a basic rule of retirement investing - it must be viewed as a long-term venture and should not be tinkered with in reaction to short term market disruptions. And don't knee-jerk react and make decisions you'll regret in the depth of crisis times. I've been schooled by the college of hard knocks and will levitate to a $3M equity line sometime this year. I have ridden many a bull market so I know what the future will bring. Nice to have you on board.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Mindylou is telling me to be prepared for more triple digit gains - many will be back to back. February could be hotter than January. Money is going to flow like vodka.

Back to back triple digit gains. Yes, that's what I'm thinking. Blue chips are doing very nicely. February is going to become known as one of those money makin months. S&P 1570 by March.

 

[wavecoder]

Trust but verify - is not the main issue. It all goes back to a basic rule of retirement investing - it must be viewed as a long-term venture and should not be tinkered with in reaction to short term market disruptions. And don't knee-jerk react and make decisions you'll regret in the depth of crisis times. I've been schooled by the college of hard knocks and will levitate to a $3M equity line sometime this year. I have ridden many a bull market so I know what the future will bring. Nice to have you on board.

he does speak the truth here, even my tsp gains have gotten much better when i started treating it like a long-term investment vessel rather than trying to time the market (hence why my system ignores the daily charts and only goes by weeklies).

there's some degree of market timing, but reacting to weekly charts, sometimes i may only use 6 or so IFT's the entire year

 

[Birchtree]

I need to make another $300K and then my margin buying power opens up. There is no top as long as equity builds and I might have access to hundreds of thousands of dollar to blow during the rest of this year - it's time to leverage up the debt. Afterall policy makers have created a backdrop conducive for yet another couple years period of market exuberance. During all of the previous post-panic euro uplegs, the SPX rallied sharply to achieve a major new cyclical bull high each time. Yes, I'm headed for dead man's curve but I know what's waiting around that next corner.

 

[rktect1]

Are you investing your own hard earned money or are you using money borrowed from a banking institution?

Just asking.

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, every dime I own is invested and yes I'm borrowing money on margin from Merrill Lynch to leverage my potential. I currently pay 2.75% interest on the borrowed funds and it's tax deductable. My dividend income is offset with my margin interest. I plan in the not to distant future to really ramp up my purchases to make as much money in capital gains as possible. No fear here. As my equity line increases that will release more buying power to make further gains - running with Ferdinand. This secular bull is going to run for several years and I'm accumulating wealth while the opportunity exists. Snort.

 

[Mcqlives]

Birch,

I threw this at Bquat also...what do you think of 1526 being a little bit of a ceiling?

 

[wavecoder]

Birch,

I threw this at Bquat also...what do you think of 1526 being a little bit of a ceiling?

no, the cesspool of bull manure is going to reach critical mass and explode, sending the entire outhouse to the moon, which is about SPX 1800 *snort*

 

[Mcqlives]

no, the cesspool of bull manure is going to reach critical mass and explode, sending the entire outhouse to the moon, which is about SPX 1800 *snort*

wow...?!?!?! Birch, do you have another user name on this board? I haven't heard anyone that bullish for a long time but that sounds like you from years gone past!

 

[Birchtree]

Well guys you know I am bullish and this bull is going to provide me with ample wealth. I don't think there is any top for the foreseable future as long as fresh money is rolling - maybe close to 1600 in the middle of March we might slow down to catch some breath. Going forward I'll be spending serious money to garner serious gains. This week my oceanic looked like this: -$10K, +$27K, -$49K, +$13K, +$53K for a slow gain of +$34K. Next week should be colossal with a strong gap up on Monday - no chance for platform sitters to get on the train. The I fund should continue to gain strength - the I fund for me is a proxy play on the emerging markets. Jeremy Siegel compares the current state of the U.S. Treasury market to the tech bubble of the late 1990s. The small retail investor is going to be clamoring - get me in at any price. There are great earnings stocks all over the place that will help a bid under this market and prevent it from falling apart. I'll predict accelerating asset prices the entire month. If you are sitting like amoeba on too much cash, the market is running away from you.

 

[Birchtree]

Ah it has been awhile since you ventured this way - always welcome. The last time I was a lonely bull in a bearish world. Things are going to get better now that BHO has decided to come in from the cold. Since 1960, stocks have traded at over 20 times earnings when long term rates have been less than 3%. I believe a multi-generational Supercycle wave 3 has begun. Yes, the sweet smell of superlative bull manure is wafting once again.