Birchtree's Account Talk

[JimmyJoe]

I guess I should just accept the fact that this lateral market move is going to pull nickel and dimes out of my pocket for the rest of the week - but then maybe not.

You may be right. The vix has returned to very negative numbers and the S&P futures are looking up. Sideways week looks likely. I do, however, refer to a chart posted recently by Tom showing that when the vix is below 14, the market could easily go into a slow dive. Even then we'd lose only, say 5% over a few months according to this chart. However, the vix today falling again to its low for the past 5 days bodes well for the market. It was going up during mid day trading. Back down now, into the 13s. We'll see how the S&P futures do tonite. Maybe all this looking at tea leaves, moving to the F fund, is an exercise in futility. I'm just playing it safe but wisely. The market was pretty hot last week but that's what we want. Even if it goes sideways, it's doing some cooling off. I can still get back in soon enough if it starts going up.

 

[Bquat]

I guess I should just accept the fact that this lateral market move is going to pull nickel and dimes out of my pocket for the rest of the week - but then maybe not.

Birch? Didn't you say a few years back that you would start getting out when the VIX got below 15. Wasn't the theory that when all fear is out of the market you should look out. The VIX is down to near 13 even with the market going down today. Isn't there is a chance for it to slingshot back up from this bounce level? Just asking.:notrust:

 

[Birchtree]

My bet is that we'll see the 10 level before we see the 20 level again - and yes when the VIX gets this low one needs to remain cognizant but there are only few individuals in this market. So we should be able to base below the 10 level for months before problems surface. You simply cannot fight the Fed or stand in the way of a bond bubble release - there will always be another consolidation but the chances of a cyclical bear market may be years away. There are no signs yet of a major or intermediate top - but it certainly is wise to keep looking. I should be in position in about two months to further load up the truck without having to take any profits to raise cash. I'm waiting on Dow 13,596 and a continuation of our mini manufacturing renaissance to push the market higher.

 

[Birchtree]

My bet is the secular bear market ended in the bottom of March 2009 and we have begun a new secular bull market. I may not live long enough to see its peak but my oceanic account will and will be passed on to the next generation in my family.

"As in the 1970's, the next cyclical bear is not likely to be as severe as the last two, and it will likely finally end the secular bear market, and usher in the next secular bull market."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38408.html

 

[Birchtree]

When Will Interest Rates Rise Again? | Clif Droke | Safehaven.com

 

[law87]

My bet is the secular bear market ended in the bottom of March 2009 and we have begun a new secular bull market. I may not live long enough to see its peak but my oceanic account will and will be passed on to the next generation in my family.

"As in the 1970's, the next cyclical bear is not likely to be as severe as the last two, and it will likely finally end the secular bear market, and usher in the next secular bull market."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38408.html

dude, are you that old?

 

[Birchtree]

Yes sir, I'll be 66 in July and have earned every year of it. My government tried to get me killed when I was younger but it didn't work. So I'm all in and ready to explore the potential of what wealth has to offer. Snort. From the above article - "How can we be sure that once this secular bear ends and the next secular bull market begins the Dow will soar to 50,000 and above? Because in each of the secular bull markets of the last 110 years, the Dow has gained 500% to 1000%."

 

[JimmyJoe]

Yes sir, I'll be 66 in July and have earned every year of it. My government tried to get me killed when I was younger but it didn't work. So I'm all in and ready to explore the potential of what wealth has to offer. Snort. From the above article - "How can we be sure that once this secular bear ends and the next secular bull market begins the Dow will soar to 50,000 and above? Because in each of the secular bull markets of the last 110 years, the Dow has gained 500% to 1000%."

Once he made it out of nam, he's playing with house money, is this correct Birchtree? We gotcha, and we need you on this board. We know the I fund is good. I'm playin it tight, but today could be the buying opportunity for me and for others watching this market.

 

[Birchtree]

Now is the time to buy beaten down good value stocks. If we see a major price top shaping up in the first half of 2013, we will feel the wonderful pressures of g forces as a blow off top approaches and stocks go parabolic - stay long and strong. Honestly, if I meet my whisper number of +$400K for January I'll have to buy a bigger wheelbarrow to transport the money or I might just call the fellows at RRTS to come and get it.

 

[wavecoder]

hey birch, do you invest in any MREIT's? what do you think about those? Just wondering since you're into dividend stocks. I've been holding NCT and wondering whether I should sell it. It's been one of my top performers and pays a 12% dividend (bought at 6.50, over 9 bucks now)

the trader in me wants to sell things for sweet profits, but as an investor im saying collect the dividends haha.

 

[Birchtree]

I would hold that 12% dividend until hell freezes over and reinvest every penny of it back into the REIT - there will come a time when the mortgage industry will show good profits again and as prices elevate the yields will drop. I do own a few REIT stocks as well as master limited partnerships in the energy sector that fall under K1 rules for taxes.

 

[Birchtree]

Thanx to growth from China I'm having trouble anticipating what our economy is going to look like 6 months from now - they will definitely help the I fund.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Speaking of growth from China, have you seen VIPS? It appears to be the Chinese equivalent of an Amazon.com for China, selling clothes, shoes, etc. on-line to the good people of China. See chart below. It was a $5 stock just four months ago. Up 4X since then. If this keeps up... Well, never mind. That would be impossible.

 

[Birchtree]

So few investors and so much fear - sooner or later the anxiety of missing the boat become unbearable. The fear now is that bear market rallies will suck you in and then bury you soon after. I have no fear of taphophobia - of being buried alive. The put/call ratio of 0.55 is signaling a consolidation but we can remain over bought in this bullish environment for many months. I just wish I could raise more cash sooner but I'll have to be patient and wait my turn.

 

[Birchtree]

Dow Transport Cycle Keeps On Winning | readtheticker | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

"I posit the stocks covered in this article have not priced in the growth we are about to experience. These stocks still have much more room to run with expectations at all-time lows."

5 Stealth Rally Stocks To Buy For Continued Upside In 2013 - Seeking Alpha

 

[Birchtree]

I'm not done throwing good money at this one yet - time is on my side, at least I think it is.

Molycorp: 'The Pain' Is Here - Seeking Alpha

 

[konakathy]

So few investors and so much fear - sooner or later the anxiety of missing the boat become unbearable. The fear now is that bear market rallies will suck you in and then bury you soon after. I have no fear of taphophobia - of being buried alive. The put/call ratio of 0.55 is signaling a consolidation but we can remain over bought in this bullish environment for many months. I just wish I could raise more cash sooner but I'll have to be patient and wait my turn.

F-E-A-R: Fear has two meanings..... 1.) Forget Everything And Run or 2.) Face Everything And Rise

I ain't no scaredy cat no more. *baby snort*

 

[Birchtree]

"Global markts have learned to stop worrying and love the liquidity." The 100% S funders are plugging up the top 100 tracker positions - that's about to change in a hurry.

 

[Bquat]

"Global markts have learned to stop worrying and love the liquidity." The 100% S funders are plugging up the top 100 tracker positions - that's about to change in a hurry.

Yea they followed me yesterday.