Birchtree's Account Talk

[respro]

I'm currently sitting at #166 with a +11.88% gain on the tracker - definitely moving up with the Jeffersons. Now if my chicklett friends above me hold their G and F positions I may take out many of them on the way up - leaving a little hoof dust in my journey.

I'm right there with ya Birchtree! I'm not on the tracker yet, should be next month.
[TABLE="class: tableClear"]
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[TD="class: alignLeft"]Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 08/31/2012 is 11.88%.
(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)

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[/TR]
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Respro(Tyler)

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's a note from Dorothy A. Wright of Ridgefield, Conn.

"Americans of my age group, 65 to 75, were the only part of the population to show an increase in income. Let me suggest one possible reason, using myself as an example. As we savers turn 70 and-a-half, the IRA rwquired minimum distribution causes us to transfer money from our IRAs and 401(K)s to our taxable investment accounts. That counts as 'income', is taxed as 'income', but sure doesn't feel like 'income'. In my own case, my adjusted gross income rose by 25% and my federal taxes rose by 60%. In each year in the future, because I saved carefully, my tax return will continue to show an increase in 'income' with a proportionate increase in federal taxes. That's what I sugned up for, and that's what I planned for, but it is hard to heaer it described as an increase in income."

Always amazed how shocked people are when it first dawns on them that they have to pay taxes on their retirement 401(k) withdrawals. Durrrr.

And the real kicker is going to be those that have put off paying the taxes now, only to see tax rates MUCH higher when they hit their retirement years. (Too much gov't spending & not enough revenue to cover it = higher taxes).

Lesson: If you're not maxing out your Roth IRA during your working years, you're probably making a serious financial mistake.

 

[Handballer]

I'm currently sitting at #166 with a +11.88% gain on the tracker - definitely moving up with the Jeffersons. Now if my chicklett friends above me hold their G and F positions I may take out many of them on the way up - leaving a little hoof dust in my journey.[/QUOTE

I am living on the same floor as the Kramdens and Ed Norton. Looking up at you.

 

[Mapper]

Always amazed how shocked people are when it first dawns on them that they have to pay taxes on their retirement 401(k) withdrawals. Durrrr.

And the real kicker is going to be those that have put off paying the taxes now, only to see tax rates MUCH higher when they hit their retirement years. (Too much gov't spending & not enough revenue to cover it = higher taxes).

Lesson: If you're not maxing out your Roth IRA during your working years, you're probably making a serious financial mistake.

It's a gamble either way. Anyone who paid taxes in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s etc. and missed out on 30+ years of compounded growth only to avoid paying taxes at today's lower rates might be thinking otherwise. Diversification is good

 

[craigerv]

I agree, Mapper. There is no sure way to know, but spreading the risk is probably the best idea. I'm putting all of my contributions in Roth TSP with the knowledge that the matching funds will be normal TSP, so I'm 50-50 at the moment. I do think that the health care law will eventually have to cost all of us quite a bit more in taxes but there is no sure way to know.

 

[Birchtree]

Well Rochester, the Fed did what the bulls wanted and now if we get strong confirmation tomorrow money will begin to shift into equities out of bonds and I'll have to rent a bigger wheelbarrow to get to the bank. I have eleven more trading days to nail down my $400K moment. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Uncle Ben is having a good news conference - don't fight the Fed is what I learned many years ago. Perhaps prospects for higher global GDP growth from 2013 are the driving force behind rising equity market prices and falling VIX levels. VIX falling to lower lows recently should not be taken as a signal of a market top.

 

[polarbear]

Yo dude. There were a couple of other big moves in the last two months followed by continuing momentum, a slow drift up, worth staying onboard for. I got in (C,S,I) Aug.27. No one could foresee Spain coughing up a hairball on Aug.30, too bad, but on we go, or on we went. And I'm still in 100% in C,I. Whether the mix is optimal or not is secondary! Making money is not just a sport, it's serious business. Like you said, one cannot be dainty about it. I have goals and targets, and a risk avoidance or risk management attitude. I'm in now. When risk starts showing up (I don't see it now), I'll react. This is what I do for the little lady, and the family, and for myself. I am driven. But careful. Just not dainty anymore. The gloves have come off.

 

[MrBowl]

Looks like you, Birch, will be right on the upward moving markets. I'll be jumping in soon. Of course, this all but hands the election to your favorite guy.

 

[Birchtree]

It will definitely help Mr. Romney inconcert of his rolling back oppressive regulations to stimulate business and job creation. A reduction in tax rates will help ignite the economy and Romney is in favor of a reduced tax burden. This economy is going to be fine once we get new leadership.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm looking for a new military coup in Egypt - they realize their country is going to hell in a hurry. Take out Morsi now and start over while there is still time.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm anticipating a full on press panic buy today around 1300 hours as everyone tries to get through the same door at the same time - the venturi principle will effect the distribution on the other side of the door and the oceanic account will get showered with gains.

 

[bjean]

I'm anticipating a full on press panic buy today around 1300 hours as everyone tries to get through the same door at the same time - the venturi principle will effect the distribution on the other side of the door and the oceanic account will get showered with gains.

BT,

thanks for giving me the guts to get back in the market when I did, this is paying off after two years of not very wise trading. My husband said to never ever buy high and I did, he thinks I am in cash right now. Hubby wants me to be prudent and keep most of money is cash since I am retired. I still want to make some money but know I have to be more conservative, just not right now. I want to do the monthly withdrawal with my thrift and take out 3 or 4 %. Now how to keep my profit without getting caught in a pullback is the hard part for me.

I was going to take some profit today but will wait as I see some smart members buying today.

bjean

 

[Boghie]

Don't know BT...

Lots of Black Swans flying around. The one we elected is using multiple Fat Tail feathers to affect foreign relations, our economy, other's economies, and the culture.

For me, its time to be a bit safe. Those Black Swans fly fast and drop a miserable load. Maybe that's how I got the Pox. Yowser...

 

[Birchtree]

I've just been sitting back with my slippers up on the desk - I think next week I'll begin to take opportunity and buy some of my lonely wall flowers before they get away. This bull cycle has a life of its own and will not stop to breath for months because there is so much cash on the sidelines - my greed factor says go.

 

[Boghie]

BJean,

You are:

C: 15%
S: 15%
I: 70%

Expected Annual Return: 8%
Expected Annual Risk (Deviation): 13%​

BirchTree helped me tremendously in 2009. In fact, he probably bumped me into a nice retirement. He got me migrating into the market and dramatically increasing contributions soon after the bottom when everybody was running away. I am not a market timer. I did not time that market. April 2009 did not seem like a great time to migrate into C/S/I. I was buying tons of 'C Fund' in the $7 - $10 dollar range - and still am. Thank you BT for helping me fight the panic.

However, I was not retired and had 20 years of investing left. And, BT doesn't need the assets from TSP to pay expenses.

You have a very risky allocation. I don't know what will happen if you lose 20% before you can reallocate. That can happen in two or three days with your current allocation. I would strongly recommend listening to Ray Lucia and Ric Edelman and reading their books ('Buckets of Money', and 'The Truth About Money'). Both of these financial planners have affiliated offices throughout the nation.

If your TSP account is important for your lifestyle I would not guess on the allocation since you are retired. You have got to have Bucket 1 and Bucket 2 assets to get through a correction or longer term downturn. Otherwise, you could end up moving to safety as the knife falls.

By the way, I am not predicting a Falling Knife or a Black Swan Event. I dropped my crystal ball years ago.

 

[Birchtree]

bjean,

I like your current allocation, aggressive and yet leveraged. I'm maintaining pretty close to your levels at 80I and 20C. You can dollar cost average your way out on the upside - that way you don't move all allocations at once leaving more shares to grow gains. Just move in small percentages as we hit the higher price levels and you'll continue to make good gains. Me, I want every dollar working at these levels because I am greedy and proud of it. Boghie was correct in buying C fund shares on the cheap - who's to say they aren't still cheap even at these levels. The C fund can actually outperform for the next five years along with the I fund. Consider dollar cost averaging out of your S fund shares first.

 

[Boghie]

BT,

BJean may be pulling money out of his/her account for living expenses. That was my concern. You do not need your Tugboat account for living expenses and thus have a long investment time horizon. I am young enough - still have something like 15+ years till retirement - that I should have assets at risk. I have a long time horizon.

Retirement planning is a tough business. I think BJean should put some cash down and get allocated - unless the TSP account is long term investing money.

 

[Birchtree]

Still patiently waiting on 1300 hours for Ferdinand to kick in some alpha and then the red will flow from the remaining courageous shorts - let'em bleed.

"Investors received a 14% boost in dividend cash payments in the second quarter of 2012."

Why defend dividends? - Outside the Box - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

I posted these words a couple of months back. "The extreme euro pessimism worrying everyone is actually very bullish. Euro strength will effectively spark major rallies in stocks and commodities."

Euro to Surge | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com