Birchtree's Account Talk

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Oh trust me I'm worried but not remotely about a landslide. It's still a little too tough to suppress that many votes in America. But me, well I'm significantly better off than I was 4 years ago. Look at the numbers and I bet you are too, despite the obstructionism. Make health care access secure, stop burdening the hospitals with uninsured I'll be better yet. I know who my guy is, never before has the choice been so clear.

And yours? Have fun voting for the draft dodger who believes it's unethical to have a beer. He believes in freedom alright, freedom to rob you blind.
 
Nnuut and Mapper,
Birch is discussing making money and you two are ramping up politic mudslinging on his thread. You know he won't be able to help himself, but to chime in and may get banned as a result! :blink: Please take the politics to one of the * threads. We want to keep Birch in the loop as this bull run takes off! :D
 
Birchtree said:
It's actually my fault - I should have know better than to lift that rock.
Click to expand...

Hi Birch, that was a pretty tame post on your part. You didn't call anyone out by name or bash any particular politician or party...although we all know where you stand on these issues! :nuts: I have my own political views that I chose to keep to myself...sometimes I wish others would too. :toung: That is why I was pleased when Tom set up the * political threads. Now those that want to participate in our right to freedom of speech and our democratic process can go to those threads and those that want to learn about investing can stay out of the crossfire.
To me it doesn't matter if you are red or blue, right or left, as we are all members of TSPTalk to learn how to build and keep a sizable retirement account. More important than that, we are all AMERICANS and are all FEDERAL CIVIL SERVANTS. This goes for our political leaders too. Whether I agree with, or strongly disagree with, a politician’s or party’s position on an issue, I know that they are doing what they truly believe is best for our nation and I respect them for being that dedicated to their beliefs of how to make our country stronger and better for all Americans.
One last point about respect and then I will go back to posting headlines about Greece and the ECB...No matter which party the President of the United States of America belongs to, no matter whether I agree with or like the man (or woman before too many more), no matter whatever, the President is the President and deserves the respect that the Leader of the Greatest Country on Earth deserves. Beyond that as a Federal Employee and as a Department of Defense Employee, the President (red, blue, purple or pink) is my Boss and my Commander in Chief.
Good night. :cool:
 
Well that's all well and good - but not to be disrespectful but your rational is reminiscent of reasons put forth by the Germans after they lost.
 
Posting this question here because it might get read and answered. (No risk of swelling host's head any more. :) )

Once again I don’t understand supposedly intelligent gents that believe the govt can borrow money now at incredibly low rates and therefore should do so and invest it in infrastructure.

No one ever says back that any borrowing now is for perpetuity and worse, at adjustable rates. And therefore not low rates. Why does anyone think low rates now mean it’s wise to borrow now? No one is buying 30 year bonds. They are buying 6 month bills.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000108628&play=1

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000109596&play=1

The Edelman video also wants to cancel some of the USG debt (to trust funds). That frees up money to invest. Say what?
 
I'll take a short on borrowing and relate to my personal circumstances. First when a credit card is used the borrower probably has a job and plans to pay the loan back over time. When a municipality or town borrows for infrastructure upgrades they rely on property taxes with increased valuations. When the property owner ups and moves like in Detroit then that tax base is lost and schools close. The government plans to pay their borrowing back via increased taxes and fees for usage - the proper mechanism is to have growth that produces revenues - not tax increases. I'm a borrower that uses margin to leverage my investments - my risk is a variable rate and market volatility. I have enough of a buffer available such that I can if necessary pay down my margin with immediate liquidity. My current margin rate is 2.75% and the interest is tax deductable - if rates are to stay low for several more years thanks to Bernanke then I have some breathing room. If I buy a stock yielding 5% then I'm ahead of the game because my cost is 15% tax and I have the opportunity of making a capital gain. Every summer the last couple of years have forced me to back up and cover margin calls forcing me to declare profits - otherwise I wouldn't sell any of my wall flowers. The time to leverage up is when the bull stampedes - but recognizing the inherent risks is important in a volatile market. The more money power working the greater the potential gains - so I'm staying on margin.
 
The Dow is now less than 8 percentage points away from a new all time high - we could see over 14,000 in the next eleven trading days. Save yourselves now - get out while you're ahead. Just kidding folks. The angle of ascent is going to be steep.
 
Birchtree said:
The Dow is now less than 8 percentage points away from a new all time high - we could see over 14,000 in the next eleven trading days. Save yourselves now - get out while you're ahead. Just kidding folks. The angle of ascent is going to be steep.
Click to expand...

I agree to some extent. I think the market is breaking out, but not sure how long this breakout will last. The next 2 days will be telling. The end of August, and all of September are usually weak, especially in an election year. I'm just thankful to see the market stop floating around without direction. The only way I'm going to make good money is with high volatility. Bring on the 100 point moves in the market.
 
June, July and August -by far-the best performing months during an election year. And now that it looks increasingly likely we are going to get an economic boosting change in Washington leadership the market can think aout the future.

"We cover a potentially bullish set up on the DeMark exhaustion chart of SPY/TLT (stocks relative to bonds). The signal has not occurred in its present form since October 2004." Remember the bond market is ten times larger than the stock market - funds can flow back to stocks for years.

Four Charts Bears Do Not Want To See | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com
 
Birchtree said:
June, July and August -by far-the best performing months during an election year. And now that it looks increasingly likely we are going to get an economic boosting change in Washington leadership the market can think aout the future.

"We cover a potentially bullish set up on the DeMark exhaustion chart of SPY/TLT (stocks relative to bonds). The signal has not occurred in its present form since October 2004." Remember the bond market is ten times larger than the stock market - funds can flow back to stocks for years.

Four Charts Bears Do Not Want To See | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com
Click to expand...

That's a darn good article. Except for the part where it says: "Before you dismiss the use of charts in investing...".

Are you kidding me??? That's almost all I use!

:laugh:
 
A message for barbarajean - now that you are back long stay the course even when you retire. Let your TSP account build further gains as our leadership changes to promote economic growth. Take any money out you need and let the rest ride the bull because this market is still in early stages of an advance that may last for multi-years. Your money now has the opportunity to grow so stay firm over the next couple of years and enjoy your retirement.
 
Since the daily correlations of the VIX and the S&P 500 is sharply negative, a slow and steady rise in prices tends to depress the VIX. Periods like that can last a long time though, as they did between 2004 and 2007.
 
The VIX is coming down seriously today. Currently at 13.52 -0.77. Another harbinger sign of a rally into the close - I think so.
 
Birchtree said:
The VIX is coming down seriously today. Currently at 13.52 -0.77. Another harbinger sign of a rally into the close - I think so.
Click to expand...

or fearless stupidity...

Probably just reducing VIX to lower the premiums on the options... they want more people long and reducing premiums is just another way to lure them in :blink:
 
I remember well the August 1982 move higher which was the beginning of a very long bull market. I was fully invested at the time and had a wonderful 9 month ride off that bottom.
 
There were no great shakes this week but the oceanic account did make money: -$19K, -$11K, +$20K, +$50K, +$20K for a very smooth +$60K. I set a goal for the month of August of +$400K - I'm now looking for a further gain of +$194K in the next ten trading days to meet that objective - I may actually come close. Snort.
 
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