Birchtree's Account Talk

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The VIX is setting up to drift into the 14 level - caution flags. It doesn't mean you have to cut and run yet - just be aware that trouble may be lurking.
 
I would like to respond to your remark, Birch, in my intuitive, untechnical way. 1) Someone on this site wrote, I get out if the volatility goes up. Well, I stay out or get out if I smell a rat. I smell a rat. I do not understand this market right now. Maybe because it is topping (I think it is) -- or consolidating -- or waiting for more well-timed, sprung surprises out of Europe and later the Fed (I don't know). I don't imagine I have the smarts to deal with surprises coming from something I do not begin to understand. Plus we are constrained with two IFT's per month. I have No Idea where this market is going in the next few weeks or the next few months. 2) Looking at the VIX going back 2 or 5 years, one sees a concave descent into April 2010 and into July 2011 and into April 2012, each followed by a spike up (two nasties followed by one baby). Right now we are having a baby concave descent into now. all of these into about 16 +/-. I don't know what to make of that, but since I'm not in, I'm not worrying. 3) I do not have a clear picture (I have almost no idea) what is going on with the bond market right now. Is it bottoming? Are bonds still negatively correlated with stocks or have they become partly detached? There have been a couple of deep articles on the web lately about whither bonds, which leave me more confused than when I started. That's it. Thanks for your note, Birch, and may the force be with us. I think Romney will choose Ryan in a couple of days and that will boost the market on Monday. Just my thot.
 
If the markets were easy to interpret we'd all be rich - but it's an open arena, open to anyone willing to spend their money. Sometimes all you can do is close your eyes and hold your nose and then jump. I try to be a longer term buy and hold type of spender - that works for me. Of course my investment advisor, Mindylou is a great asset. She picks my sweet wall flower purchases. Gosh, transports just went positive.
 
The reports of the death of equities have been premature and, for contrarian investors able to brave the pessimism, a buying opportunity. I maintain my belief that 2012 likely plays out like 2003 and 2009, with much more room for stocks to rally than the crowd thinks is possible. Since 1928, there have been 27 instances where the market rose more than 30% over a rolling 7 month period. I believe the probabilities of a positive Black Swan (Obama goes home) are far higher than that of the expected negative one. Here is what my oceanic account did this week: +$33K, +$48K, -$4K, +$41K, +$5K for a comeback of +$123K. I'm now +$146K on the month working toward a +$400K month. That may sound ambitious but my truck is loaded and ready to reap some bull gains. Snort.
 
"Bullish sign is in the charts for Europe. For investors keeping close tabs on chart trends, European stocks just turned golden. The Stoxx Europe 600, a broad index of stocks across 18 countries, closed at nearly a five-month high, triggering a technical indicator known as a 'golden cross' that some investors interpret as a bullish signal. A 'golden cross' occurs when the market's short term gains surpass its longer term gains, or when an index's 50-day moving average breaks above its 200-day moving average, essentially forming a 'cross' on charts. The cross suggests that perhaps the worst has passed for Europe, even though macroeconomic data point to continued weakness. In past instances when the two were separated by a couple of months, the index was higher both one month and six months after the golden cross occurred." It's reasonable to hang tuff with the I fund.
 
Birchtree said:
"Bullish sign is in the charts for Europe. For investors keeping close tabs on chart trends, European stocks just turned golden. The Stoxx Europe 600, a broad index of stocks across 18 countries, closed at nearly a five-month high, triggering a technical indicator known as a 'golden cross' that some investors interpret as a bullish signal. A 'golden cross' occurs when the market's short term gains surpass its longer term gains, or when an index's 50-day moving average breaks above its 200-day moving average, essentially forming a 'cross' on charts. The cross suggests that perhaps the worst has passed for Europe, even though macroeconomic data point to continued weakness. In past instances when the two were separated by a couple of months, the index was higher both one month and six months after the golden cross occurred." It's reasonable to hang tuff with the I fund.
Click to expand...

Thanks Birch for the insight. I was thinking of pulling the trigger on my I-Fund today but perhaps I'll stick around.:nuts:
 
This is the first time the VIX has been below the 14 level in 5 years. Currently setting at 13.89 -0.85. What does it mean - a harbinger for a better market or a spike down to the bottom of the valley.
 
This is the first time the VIX has been below the 14 level in 5 years. Currently setting at 13.89 -0.85. What does it mean - a harbinger for a better market or a spike down to the bottom of the valley.

birch
don't leave me hangn... what does mindy or the tea leaves say up or down???

thanks
john
​
 
Mindylou says the market is heading higher leaving many on the platform - waiting for something from the ECB and the FED to pump up liquidity.
 
With the VIX running hot all day the bears have tried on several occasions to give us an intraday smash to lower levels - but I don't think they are going to be successful.
 
I'm sure some of you know a few CENGAs living with their Mom and Dads - college educated, not going anywhere. Their desire for hope and change has turned to unemployment. Enjoy your chains young folks - elections do have consequences.
 
I'm sure some of you know a few CENGAs living with their Mom and Dads - college educated, not going anywhere. Their desire for hope and change has turned to unemployment. Enjoy your chains young folks - elections do have consequences.
Click to expand...

Can we hope that at least a few CENGAS in battleground States have seen the error of voting for Barack in 2008 and will vote for the real change and a positive future for our Country ??
 
Well when you block every proposed policy and most every attempted appointment out of sheer contempt this is what you get. If the "I've got mine so screw the rest of you" generation continues to have it's cake and eat it too we'll see just how well the fairy dust approach to "broadening" the tax base works out. I'm not holding my breath.

Thankfully most of the CENGAs you speak of still know the three Rs so until double R (reverse & rewind) actually put forth a proposal (again, not holding my breath) beyond the current Ryan "budget" they can laugh about just how gullible the GOP punditry is to think Ryan has any concept of macro economics. Fairy dust my friends. I know how you feel about folks in your neighborhood living in houses paid for with gov't subsidies...but just wait until they're camped out in the streets instead, that should do wonders for your property value.

The GOP assumes American's are stupid enough to buy this bull honkey. Maybe they have defunded education long enough to finally be correct. If so we'll see just how much elections, and unsustainable "temporary" tax cuts do have consequences.
 
So you think there is NO HOPE [HA!] for the Rightlicans, I hope it doesn't disappoint you too much when the landslide hits your heart a little right of center.
 
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