Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"Another reason to be bullish: On average, after home prices reach their trough, upturns last seven years, according to a study by the International Monetary Fund of 55 housing rebounds world-wide since the 1970s. So if a bottom has in facy been reached, home construction companies could be in for another 6 1/2 years of increasing sales. The easiest way to make a broad bet on home builders is through an ETF, such as SPDR S&P Homebuilders or iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction. Given the market's run-up, however, it might be smarter to stick with specific home-related stocks that have the most room for growth. KB Homes, for example, has shown improving new home orders that set it above other home builders. After accounting for tax benefits that it accrued during the housing downturn, the company;s price/book ratio is 1, about 30% below that of other home builders." And yes I own it.

 

[Birchtree]

"What's the point of owning an investment with very little upside potential and huge downside risk?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35914.html

 

[Rube]

I read the article regarding bonds. However, what do you think about holding some "TIPS" in the form of Series I Bonds?

 

[Birchtree]

"TIPS" are designed to protect against inflation and I doubt we'll have any inflation for several more years - so the sacrifice is the time alloted waiting - when there are other alternatives to earning cash. Growing stock dividends are my choice going forward.

 

[Birchtree]

"Given that August is the strongest month of the year during an election year....equates to a potent environment for equities."

Small-caps reach pre-

 

[Birchtree]

I'm holding out for a late hour push into 1400 and then the stampede will start in earnest tomorrow.

 

[Warrenlm]

Mr. Birchtree how about an update on your jousting colleague Caymanbrac12? Hear anything? Or did I just miss it?

 

[Birchtree]

I haven't heard from Caymanbrac12 in a long time - I do wish he'd do a drive by. That also pertains to Robo.

"When the dollar moves down into an intermediate cycle trough it generates strong gains in asset prices."

Bulls Have 3 Weeks Left | Toby Connor | Safehaven.com

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-news-earnings-growth-is-slowing-2012-08-07

 

[Warrenlm]

"TIPS" are designed to protect against inflation and I doubt we'll have any inflation for several more years - so the sacrifice is the time alloted waiting - when there are other alternatives to earning cash. Growing stock dividends are my choice going forward.

Not to mention that the USG controls what is used as the inflation adjustment. If one calculates the number, and is responsible for using it to pay cost of living adjustments on the majority of one's budget, as well as TIPS adjustments, one is tempted......

 

[Birchtree]

There are now 402 of the S&P's 500 stocks that pay dividends - a level not seen since 1999. 96 dividend increases have landed on my boardwalk this year so far. The sweet smell of superlative bull manure continues to waft across the TSP Talk board. Hope you are participating.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX closed out at 15.28 -0.71, this may be a harbinger for a better tomorrow. New highs are on the horizon with a better economy.

 

[FAB1]

I tend to believe we are experiencing a positive "election year" August.

With overall public support disappearing for the current Administration
there is hopeful anticipation bubbling up as November approaches.

Happy Days are Here Again sorta stuff.

 

[Birchtree]

"The strong rally in stocks remains very much in tact. The potential upside is effectively random but also boundless."

Fundamentals Do Not Support The Stock Market Rally - Seeking Alpha

 

[goforit]

birch i remember awhile back you saying something about the VIX getting down to a certain number would signal a bull market. what was that number? i want to say it was around 15 or less. again i do not remember so i am glad to say i may be wrong

 

[Birchtree]

When the VIX gets into the 14 level you have to be cautious for a consolidation developing - the VIX should be treated as a contrarian indicator. A low VIX is a sign of complacency which means danger could approach at some point. The Dow is showing some weakness today but there is considerable strength under the radar - especially in the energy area.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Just checked the Autotracker. You're 226 (8.68%). I'm 227 (8.67%).

How's that for neck and neck? :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

We may be looking at a strong potential for a rebound today. If the market doesn't take anything away from my oceanic today I'm currently ahead +$118K - could surely use another bunch of $K on top of that. Slow, dull, and boring gets the prize everytime, not some of the time.

 

[Birchtree]

I count 32 cluckers immediately in front of me on the tracker sitting either in G or F - I would certainly like to give them a taste of hoof dust if I can zoom past.

 

[wavecoder]

I count 32 cluckers immediately in front of me on the tracker sitting either in G or F - I would certainly like to give them a taste of hoof dust if I can zoom past.

these last few days were perfect opportunities for the bears to regain control of the market, and they didn't do it. big move up next week possible, grabbing my horns for this one