Birchtree's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Re: The Fed is Dead...

What happens if the Fed wants to buy equity indexes instead of peaking bonds - just a possible thought. The bears are having difficulty pushing the Dow down over 200 points - so are the buyers lined up for golden prices. The sentiment is terrible and way overdone - let's see what Romney has to say.

BT, I ain't going all Amoeba on you buddy. This action is just a normal summer swoon with a bit of spice mixed in.

The Fed will not buy stocks. That would be 'picking winners and losers'. I don't want them buying Solyndra rather than Ford. The Fed has been buying longer term Treasuries as part of their QE program. I really think they are going to have to let the market decide for a while. Things will stabilize where they stabilize. And, for US equities I think that will occur soon.

As far as Eurotrash - not so much. Those idiots are voting for weak kneed socialists as I type. They are 'enacting' Keynesian strategies in the wrong economic climate. Those goobers (and us too:embarrest:, and especially we goobers in Kalefornea:nuts don't have a dime to our names. We have been Keynesian when in a booming tax revenue environment. I mean, what better time to stimulate an economy with gubmint spending then when the economy is booming. Dumb a$$ gubmints been buying boats and Lexuses and Cadillacs and granite counter tops and big labor teaching salaries and ginormous local and state pensions with our Equity Line of Credit. We are the last of the big credit spenders.

But, our crap is leased.

And, now we ain't got nuthin.

The Gubmint bonds in the F are at risk.

So, here is to an era of austerity. Too bad it is about to be forced on us:embarrest:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: The Fed is Dead...

It looks like the panic capitulation is in full force.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Re: The Fed is Dead...

... So, here is to an era of austerity. Too bad it is about to be forced on us:embarrest:

Good post, Boghie.

 

[Boghie]

Re: The Fed is Dead...

BT,

This big cat is hunting, not panicking

Just tracking Ferdinand's droppings. His spoor if you may.

By the way, I think equities will be where the positive action will be. 2007 - 2009 taught the private economy the proper lesson. The survivors will survive. Gubmint, not so much - especially with the Tea Party types out there (which is a very good thing). The voting public is pulling the mirror from our face. The only blow we got left is smeared on our face. Watch that G Fund folks, watch it boom. But, also watch out for it being used for more blow. Kinda like stealing prescription dope from your Baby Boomer parents medicine cabinet.

Your I Fund holdings will be very yummy when the Krauts and Brits break out of Club Med. The Rising Sun is Rising Again. My guess is that the Ausies are probably growing as well. And, China will soon revert to their norm - nice central planning. If you can hold out you will be rewarded. But the Eurotrash are probably two years behind reality.

All this commentary in your thread is pure guesswork. I better get back to advising the Fed and the international banks again.:blink:

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: The Fed is Dead...

I better get back to advising the Fed and the international banks again

Tell them Lake City ammo is available again. Ya just gotta be sure that it's not reloads.


And while I'm feeling positive, my aunt told me that the farmers always ate well in the 30s. Maybe that will be the victory of the Red States even if disappointed in November.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm being hammered like a fine piece of silver but I still believe it's mostly noise and more noise. That doesn't mean it's not painful but I'm trying to hold my base. The SPX is currently holding its' 200 day average.

 

[Birchtree]

I just added up the gains and give backs for the last 5 months of my oceanic account - that leaves me $30K light. Of course those numbers don't include today - so we'll see how June goes. No pain no gain.

 

[Birchtree]

I was watching and listening to the POTUS until he started with his untruths - blah, blah. So I put him on mute. Then all I could see were his lips and ears moving simultaneously and then his arms began to flap widely - reminded me of another leader from Europe in days gone bye. If I mention a name I'm sure Tommy Gun will ban me again so I'll just refrain. However the market seems to be getting worse the longer those arms are flapping - Chicago is waiting for their son.

 

[amoeba]

I just added up the gains and give backs for the last 5 months of my oceanic account - that leaves me $30K light. Of course those numbers don't include today - so we'll see how June goes. No pain no gain.

Or, lots of pain with lots of loss; judging by the GDP forecast, you're gonna be waiting till past this year to get anything significant back, with a buy-and-hold, never trade, strategy.

nice post, and end-of-month IFT's, Boghie. I'm in the majority-thinking-rules mode, right now. Namely, the 200 SMA's, are looking like they will not hold in the SPY (having broken through in the EFA and nearly there in the S-fund), so next week will likely be another follow-through leg down.

I'll wait a bit - or longer - on this one; may pick my moments, carefully.

 

[Birchtree]

Frankly I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the recent breakdown below the SPX 200 day turns out to be a false breakdown - or am I searching for a silver thread? My wipe out for May came to a devaluation of -$427K in the oceanic - the question is how much of that will I get back in June?

 

[Boghie]

Frankly I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the recent breakdown below the SPX 200 day turns out to be a false breakdown - or am I searching for a silver thread? My wipe out for May came to a devaluation of -$427K in the oceanic - the question is how much of that will I get back in June?

That's a lot of margin bro.

Don't tase me bro, don't tase me

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect I'll be pushed into some profit taking by the back room margin girls next week. When I take a profit I can turn right around and buy everything back if dersired without negative tax consequences - no problem with wash sales. Currently I'm on my 30 free trades so it's run for fun and buy back in lower when prices are even more golden. Volatility is what I have to eat when I'm long - but I suspect common sense will quickly return now that we've had our 10% correction - this is not the beginning of a new bear market. My tugboat is operating in negative terriority now for the year but I'm not overly concerned because the bounce surge to come will propell me right back to my +12% gain if not more. My wife is holding steady on her defined contribution plan and will add money next Friday - she is 100% in an SPX index and the price is right. She'll end up buying more shares because of the correction providing we don't reboud quickly.
I may take a bite on FB now that it's golden. Also had 17 dividend reinvestments today to soothe my wounds.

 

[Birchtree]

The oceanic actually did OK for the four day week - here is what transpired: +$77K, -$110K, -$20K, -$116K for a devaluation of -$169K. The first chance I get to do some stink bug buying I'm going for it - this is my usual pattern. The sell list has been made and now I'll get Mindylou to work on my next stinky buy list. I don't like taking profits but when it's necessary it's necessary.

 

[Birchtree]

Remember it's always darkest before the dawn. It is dark out there - real dark today. And yet, we should all buy more. If the correction retraces back to or maybe a little below the 200 DMA then it will be a normal intermediate correction within a cyclical bull market. Where else can an investor find high dividend yields and low PE multiples but in energy stocks.

 

[OBGibby]

Added another 20% of C Fund at COB today. Now sitting 70C/30G. We're only six months away before "It's morning again in America."

 

[Buster]

. If I mention a name I'm sure Tommy Gun will ban me again so I'll just refrain. However the market seems to be getting worse the longer those arms are flapping - Chicago is waiting for their son.

 

[Birchtree]

My cash is ready, the sell list is ready and the buy list is also ready - I'm good for now. So bring on the nightmare....

"Yields on 10-year Treasury notes dropped to 1.467% on Friday, lower than the previous all time low of 1.54% registered on April 8, 1946, according to Federal Reserve data and Bianco Research." If everyone is in peak bonds who's left to sell stocks - there have been steady outflows from equities for months - I say let'em run.

"With Friday's drop, two indexes fell into what many investors consider a correction, dropping 10% off their recent peaks. The Russell 2000 index of small capitalization stocks lost 3.2% on Friday, bringing its slide to 13% from its peak in March, while the Nasdaq Composit dropped 2.8%. It is now 12% off its high in March. The two major large-cap indexes, the Dow and the SPX are both on the cusp of a correction, with the SPX just one point away - while the Dow is -8.7%."

 

[Bquat]

Hay Birch, I have a possible bounce line drawn out for you.

 

[Bquat]

I give you my 2000th post.

 

[nnuut]

I give you my 2000th post.

2,000, CONGRATULATIONS Bquat, that's a LOT of Postin'.