Birchtree's Account Talk

[MrBowl]

Would be nice if the price of gas out here in Calif reflected, at least a little bit, that the barrel has dropped around 20% since early March. Reg UL is still well above $4.

It's not just the oil cos and refineries, its also these idiotic special seasonal blends required for this Greece-like state that causes refineries to go offline to make the switch. Of course, the gas tax isn't too low here either.

I guess what I'm saying is that the lower cost per barrel is good for about 80% of the country, and I'd like it to apply to 100%.

 

[Birchtree]

I was going to say something highly negative about Jerry Brown but decided to hold my tongue - at least I live in Florida.

 

[amoeba]

I-fund ralphs up -21.5% in last year since Birchtree bulked up to 80% -

Your beloved I-fund expelled a hearty 21.5% down since 5/23/11, about the time you made your last IFT:

Lordy - dude!!! There are only 50 members of the 1,100 members of the tracker that have 50% or more in the I fund, and 49/50 are negatory for the year - and all 49 of you self-pain-inflicting ostriches are down AT LEAST 7%.

So what's your next move (all in to I-fund just to spite me)?

I have always seen European fiscal collapse as certain and distasteful as death - we just don't know exactly when it will happen.....that doesn't make it avoidable or less certain. I see ANOTHER 8% down in equity funds, before the end of October, and possibly more for the I-fund.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: I-fund ralphs up -21.5% in last year since Birchtree bulked up to 80% -

Thanx for the research amoeba - I knew I was in contrary country and going 100% I fund is an idea. You'd be wise to get into the I fund while it is not a crowded trade. Party like it's 1995, 2003, and 2009. I've got plenty of time to regain my humility and exceed your expectations - just hold tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: I-fund ralphs up -21.5% in last year since Birchtree bulked up to 80% -

"The Dow Theory remains on a buy signal."

A Dow Theory sell signal? - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

 

[Birchtree]

Is there an ADP number for tomorrow?

 

[amoeba]

prediction for the jobs report effect

Is there an ADP number for tomorrow?

yes, and a GDP too. there's some negative sentiment and lowered expectations out there....so anything short of large miss may surprise. OTOH - a huge miss could create a gaping wound in lowered confidence, that would take some time to recover. So - market will either go up, down, or stay about the same; how's that for a prediction?

 

[Scout333]

Re: prediction for the jobs report effect

So - market will either go up, down, or stay about the same; how's that for a prediction?

Yep, that's about where I am in this guessing game.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: prediction for the jobs report effect

yes, and a GDP too. there's some negative sentiment and lowered expectations out there....so anything short of large miss may surprise. OTOH - a huge miss could create a gaping wound in lowered confidence, that would take some time to recover. So - market will either go up, down, or stay about the same; how's that for a prediction?

Better than I can do...

 

[polarbear]

Re: prediction for the jobs report effect

I am getting so sick of this crap coming out of Europe. It makes me worried. Plus it ruined me day. I lost 95% of my gains from Wed-Tues in one day, and what's next? Upturn's latest blog entry is giving a yellow flag. Tony Caldaro writes "recent action has not been constructive". First takeaway is something that's been clear for a while: exogenous events overrule seasonality. First example of that was Dubai during Thanksgiving Friday 2009. With Europe center stage as they say now, seasonality is an iffy factor. Also, yes sentiment is poor now and that may prepare the mkt for a launch as Birchtree and my other buddy wrote me, but... Money on the side will stay there if it's risk-off and Europe is doing a bang-up job of making it risk-off right now. Take away, I don't know nuthin. Tomorrow and day after we'll see what the cat drags in.

 

[amoeba]

invest in Europe = your (TSP is not going) up

Birch:

I think you're gonna eat craw on this one; your obstinacy to IFT the heck outta I-fund. Sure, you've had your share of pie-in-the-sky freebies; Egypt, the japanese tsunami, yobama free lunch bailouts, and head-in-the-sand investers that were buying into dips.

Fat chance this time. Europe isn't solved, and can-kicking is done if not overdone. Sure someone could come up with a solution, but those euro's can't agree on anything, least of all austerity.

So forget that 30-40% any time soon.....I, for one, am muscling up my expectations for the year to, let's say, two percent up?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: invest in Europe = your (TSP is not going) up

I've been out running errands all day - stopped by the bank and beefed up my account incase this market tries to bring me to my knees. I'm still OK for now but just getting prepared for the next panic capitulation. This afternoon is providing a good rebound from early this morning.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Re: invest in Europe = your (TSP is not going) up

I've been out running errands all day - stopped by the bank and beefed up my account incase this market tries to bring me to my knees. I'm still OK for now but just getting prepared for the next panic capitulation. This afternoon is providing a good rebound from early this morning.

The DOW dropped almost 100 points in the final 10 minutes of the day? Did someone let leak the jobs report for tomorrow?

I guess we will find out in the morning.

 

[Birchtree]

Is it possible now with two well placed kangaroo tails are in we have the latest bottom. Step lightly around here because Ferdinand likes to micturate on flat rocks and the splatter is enough to scare the timid. I still believe the euro will rally and commodity stocks will rocket - the question is when. I'm trying to hold my base intact without selling - so I'll initially put up cash as we roll along the bottom. Then I'll spend it all buying more lovely wall flowers. I just found out that SLE is doing a spin off and paying a special $3.00 dividend as well as a 1 for 5 reverse split.

 

[Warrenlm]

bottom schmottom. Hoyer says they're retaking the House. Holder says you miscreants in Florida need to continue to allow them to vote for dead people. Rush had one brief spell of despair over the voting electorate but then returned to bully positive....for effect? When are you moving to Cashiers? Micturate. Is that in the word of the day thread?

 

[Birchtree]

This sure feels like panic capitulation early on - I'll probably slip into a margin call today and then I'll have to start swimming upstream. The bad jobs numbers put Obama in toast territory. Now where is the Fed? They should step up soon. They have promised to back stop the economy and now is the time for some mention of a QE3.

 

[Warrenlm]

Much more discussion of QE3 coming in the CNBC chatter this morning. Your wish is their command. Will milk and gas rise to $8/g in tandem?

 

[Boghie]

The Fed is Dead...

Birch,

The Fed is dead. They boosted short term interest rates in 2008 - 2010. Then they started rolling that funding into longer term bonds. The only thing holding our bond rates down are Spaniards 'Running from the Bulls'. Those are the Ferdinands we are talking about now.

Here is what Bernanke was trying to accomplish:

1. In 2008 he dumped rates to stabilize the economy
2. If that failed, then perhaps a Treasury induced infrastructure stimulus
3. If that failed, then perhaps a rollin' of short term bond assets into long term bonds

Instead:

1. In 2008 he dumped rates to stabilize the economy
2. Then, a few months later Obummer spent everything he had
3. Both short term rate dumping and stimulus spending flopped concurrently
4. Leaving Bernanke with his last resort a year or two early in a multi-year credit recession.

Thank you Obummer. I guess economics wasn't your strong point

So, BT, I don't think Bernanke can safely stamp the accelerator any longer. He is going to have to let you deleverage. He attempted to give us all a bit of time. We've had four years to deleverage. He did his job, now we have to wait and see. I like my 30% cash holding. And, I've increased my contributions too!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: The Fed is Dead...

What happens if the Fed wants to buy equity indexes instead of peaking bonds - just a possible thought. The bears are having difficulty pushing the Dow down over 200 points - so are the buyers lined up for golden prices. The sentiment is terrible and way overdone - let's see what Romney has to say.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: The Fed is Dead...

"By opening up the purchase program to other asset types such as stocks and corporate bonds there could be multiple benefits to the market place and the economy as a whole by lowering the cost of capital structures for companies. In the case of equity purchases it would send an immediate signal of a relative bottom in secutities while over the long term build the business confidence needed to prompt busineses to start putting record cash piles into riskier projects such as expanding; prompting hiring." There are too many people suffering from irrational depression - the Fed certainly has more cards in their deck.