Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I've said it before and I'll say it once again: in the 1990s equity markets in the US rallied as the US dollar rallied as well. The main idea is that under the fall melt-up scenario, do not let currency movements trick you into thinking that a strong dollar is bearish for equities. If anything, it would further the case for a Grand Surprise in risk assets into the end of the year. ibid.

 

[Birchtree]

Well it was a rather quiet week for the oceanic account: +$96K, -$20K, +$33K, -$1K, -$5K for a give back of, oh wait, a gain of $103K. I've got four more trading days to make possible gains against a terrible May month.

Here's to a tearless Memorial Day. That's a wish I may not be able to honor.

 

[OBGibby]

Birch - I'm currently sitting 50G/50C. Knees are starting to get a little wobbly, thinking about going 75 or even 100% G. Talk me out of this nonsense! Just got done reading about Barry and his Choom Gang - figured it was a sign that it'll only get worse from here until November.

 

[Birchtree]

My friend - consumer sentiment was 79.3 in May - the best since 10/07. The country sees a leadership change coming.

"The extreme euro pessimism worrying everyone is actually very bullish. Greece doesn't matter and never has, it isn't big enough to be material. Euro strength will effectively spark major rallies in stocks and commodities, starting to rebalance May's rotten sentiment."

Euro to Surge | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com

I'm going to hold my tugboat positions of 20C/80I until hell freezes over - no fear here.

 

[Birchtree]

Panic Like It

 

[Birchtree]

I recently checked my tracker position and am now at #787 with a -0.59% - I wonder how long I'll stay there. The good news is that the National Association of Home Builders' measure of foot traffic from people shopping for new homes this month hit its highest level in over five years. Average prices for framing lumber are 33% higher than a year ago. A housing market in recovery could be just the cure for the summertime blues. The recent surge in consumer confidence is the biggest move in 32 years. The very future of america is going to come down to ending obama's disgrace of a presidency this fall.

 

[Birchtree]

"Tuesday and Wednesday in my opinion will likely immediately tell us which way this market is about to go. Near term we have to see a very strong bounce this coming week over 1330 on a closing basis."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34883.html

 

[bmneveu]

I recently checked my tracker position and am now at #787 with a -0.59% - I wonder how long I'll stay there. The good news is that the National Association of Home Builders' measure of foot traffic from people shopping for new homes this month hit its highest level in over five years. Average prices for framing lumber are 33% higher than a year ago. A housing market in recovery could be just the cure for the summertime blues. The recent surge in consumer confidence is the biggest move in 32 years. The very future of america is going to come down to ending obama's disgrace of a presidency this fall.

Good news for the value of my home that I purchased 6 months ago! I was hoping to time the bottom of the real estate market. Might have gotten lucky there

 

[Birchtree]

I'm chasing Ferdinand this morning and buying a few sweet and supple wall flowers: RDC, HAL, RPM, GWR.

 

[bmneveu]

Looks like Energy is doing very well this morning. I'm sure you have a few of those plucked.

 

[Birchtree]

No reason to pluck so soon - my goal for the Dow remains 17,000 for year end. "Of the 11 recoveries in the last 60 years, this one is at or near the bottom in job growth and every other economic indicator. Moreover, since deep recessions are generally followed by more robust recoveries, this should have been one of the strongest recoveries ever. So what went wrong? All the available Keynesian levers for achieving economic growth have been pulled, yet the recovery is one of the weakest since World War II. The problem lies with the way the stimulus was carried out, the uncertainty of looming higher taxes, and the antibusiness rhetoric and regulatory strong arming of this administration." This market will discount a better future with a change in leadership - buy now ahead of the herd.

 

[Birchtree]

I'd like to see the S&P Vix cut the rug today and run a little - currently holding at 21.45 down 0.31. It'll break at some point today when the bears start to cover their butts and shorts. It's still early for buyers to step in on a heavy basis - then look for another 100 points for a Dow move +250. I think alpha still lives.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Today would be a good day to start taking some money off the table. The problems in the EU are just going to snowball larger and larger, until... well, who knows. I don't see a lot to cheer about. S&P sees Obama winning the electorate in a landslide, if you can believe it. Not that Mr. Milquetoast will make a big difference. The problems this country is facing are much bigger than any political party. We've shipped all our jobs overseas, opened the borders to illegals, run our debt to unsustainable levels, and feed, house, and educate anyone with a pulse, whether or not they are here legally. Example: My daughter just got her car smashed by some dumb ass illegal, who didn't have a drivers license, and didn't have any insurance. Oh well, just let em vote, no proof of citizenship required! Ya, this country needs more scumbags like this roaming around. Open the gates wider boys, we got an election coming up!

Aw crap, what started as a market timing post got all political. Oh well. Hope I didn't step on too many toes. Thanks for letting me vent, Mr. Birch.

 

[Birchtree]

You're welcome to vent anytime. However, I'm a lot more positive going forward and will keep adding to my base over time. SPX getting ready to take out 1330 again.

 

[Birchtree]

What is the possibility of a rebound today - no one is positive and this is just the type of day to trap some bears. Anyway, I'm buying with my dividend income getting me some nice golden prices that will look better 6 months from now.

 

[amoeba]

claw hammer

I recently checked my tracker position and am now at #787 with a -0.59% - I wonder how long I'll stay there. The good news is that the National Association of Home Builders' measure of foot traffic from people shopping for new homes this month hit its highest level in over five years. Average prices for framing lumber are 33% higher than a year ago. A housing market in recovery could be just the cure for the summertime blues. The recent surge in consumer confidence is the biggest move in 32 years. The very future of america is going to come down to ending obama's disgrace of a presidency this fall.

surge in consumer confidence! what number are you looking at? missed big with a slovenly 64.9 yesterday.

And, a huge miss on pending home sales - with a downward revision of last month to boot - while at some point (when the shadow inventory is depleted) the housing market will reach a true price based on supply and demand - that is not now. Give it 3 more years; another 10-20% down (median sales price). The prices are artificially inflated by hyper-low interest rates. 6-8% for 30 year fixed is what we should be looking at, not half that.

As far as the holding I-fund to eternity - that seems like torture to me - so let us all in on your strategy here.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: claw hammer

"Since 1928, there have been 27 instances where the market rose more than 30% over a rolling 7 month period. I believe the probabilities of a positive Black Swan are far higher than that of the expected negative one...and that gets me pumped."

Think stocks can

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Welcome back FWM...

 

[MrBowl]

Gayed is a good writer and a smart guy. He published that article prior to today's opening. Perhaps now he wishes he waited a week or two

The European storm must ease before we can have a multi-week rally, and his prediction of a 30-40% runup will be even more possible from S&P 1100, and Europe has the ability to put us there real quick.

 

[Birchtree]

The price of WTI breaking nicely today at $87.69 has got to be bullish for the economy - need to think loger term past the present. Snort. As previously posted the extreme euro pessimism worrying everyone is actually very bullish. Hanging tight at the end of my noose. Let's catch a rebound.