Birchtree's Account Talk

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Going short in this market is one sure way to get my horns handed to me. My oceanic has the required depth to make $100K on any given day as well as give back that much. So I patiently wait for the welcomed stampede.
 
"If you're sitting on too much cash, the market is running away from you." And you know who you are. Snort.
 
"The last time I interviewed Birchtree he was a lonely bull in a bearish world. The advance-decline line has broken out to new highs ahead of the major indexes. Since 1960, stocks have traded at over 20 times earnings when long term rates have been less than 3%. The market is undervalued by 10% - 30%."

Jim Stack was right, and he
 
No I was just giving myself a small pat on the back. I just added to my HOS position at $42.01 - my last purchase price was $31.18. So this stock has been trying to get away from me and I can't allow that - it's not easy keeping track of all my wall flowers especially when they start growing. The market is building tension for a serious move of the parabolic type. So much cash will try and get through the door at the same time, it'll be like a venturi effect, pulling in more and more as we rush higher.
 
Birchtree said:
No I was just giving myself a small pat on the back. I just added to my HOS position at $42.01 - my last purchase price was $31.18. So this stock has been trying to get away from me and I can't allow that - it's not easy keeping track of all my wall flowers especially when they start growing. The market is building tension for a serious move of the parabolic type. So much cash will try and get through the door at the same time, it'll be like a venturi effect, pulling in more and more as we rush higher.
Click to expand...

Ooh, the venturi effect! A man after my own heart. :laugh:

HOS is certainly climbing the upper Bollinger Band. I'd use caution on adding positions at this point. There are plenty of other attractive partners at this dance.
 
Please don't let the VIX drop into the 15 level anytime soon - I'm calm right now but lower VIX levels will make me anxious. I look at the VIX in a contrarian manner. I think next week I'll add to my SDRL position as well as AIG.
 
I suspect that "Sparticus" will be more exciting tonight than this market has been this week. Here is what the oceanic did the last four trading days: -$11K, -$34K, +$44K, -$10K for a give back of -$11K. I made more money in my tugboat this week. I'm now ahead +$199K for February - question is can I hang on for three more trading days next week - what choice do I have. Looking forward to an active March with many dividend reinvestments.
 
I'm now at #114 with +11.09% - if small caps continue weakness into next week I should escalate into the top 100. I'm holding my position of 20C and 80I. There is no reason at this time to cluck. The markets are experiencing internal rotations and that will lower sentiment and the rally pushes forward. Snort.
 
The NIKKEI in the last two weeks has been parabolic. I hope for your 80% and my 5% in the I fund that it's not a blow off top. Then again, I think the NIKKEI's been in the hole for several years. Maybe it's going to start making up for lost time now.

Anyway, I'm 95% S, so I hope the small caps get back on track. I'll be happy if we're both making money.
 
I am very happy to be #100 today here and in my Fantasy Top Account Balance I am #8. I should pay more attention to my TSP allocation.
 
wwwtractor said:
I am very happy to be #100 today here and in my Fantasy Top Account Balance I am #8. I should pay more attention to my TSP allocation.
Click to expand...

So I'm not the only that plays Fantasy AutoTracker. Count all the ties as one spot. :D
 
From TWSJ: "One reassuring point: Bulls say stock valuations remain at attractive levels, as consumer sentiment continues to improve. That has helped push investors into the stock market. Some market participants argue that some investors have sat largely in cash, bracing for a pullback that hasn't happened. (Don't worry JTH, it will at some point). If some of those investors become fearful that they may be missing out on a rally, it could ignite a wave of buying." Let the wave begin. I need to go find me a bullish read. The week of August 1 - 5, 2011 my oceanic cracked and wreaked to the tune of -$470K loss - now is the time for Karma to return those dollars to me. And I'd like it all returned in one week if possible - meaning next week would be gracious. Not that I'm greedy but I am deserving of revenge.
 
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