Birchtree's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
This permabull believes we have been in the early stages of another mega trend multiyear secular bull market - and my money is where my mouth is. My Kung Foo buddy says that one who buys right must stand still in order to run fast. I suspect there may be considerable short covering going into a three day weekend due to sheer panic of getting caught in a bull stampede. This type of shrugging off of bad news reaction is typical of powerful major 3rd waves in Elliott Wave terms. The future is now for the bold and assertive. There is nothing screaming look out for a VIX rally.
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Are you buying anything today?
 
Not buying anything today - just keeping the collection plate out. I do plan to make some purchases on Tuesday though. Mindylou has been diligently working on my buy list. We all know that breadth can turn at any time, but the current position of the Summation Index does not scream a consolidation is imminent - so we push forward into the realm. My investment style focuses on the longer-term outlook several years ahead - it keeps me sane. For those guests who want to know more my strategy has always been to the extent that my Birchtree 300 portfolio can generate sufficient cash income for my family to avoid the need to sell assets to support lifestyle, the safer the long-term financial future for my family, with a lower risk of outliving my assets. The mistake most retail investors make is that they are typically late to the game because they wait for confirmation that the economy is improving. Even though there are near term risks, I'm deep in warm bull manure, waiting for more fuel for long term market gains.
 
Your thread is always a great read, Birch. Let's keep our eyes peeled for danger signs ahead. For now, it appears that the road has a few potholes, but the market keeps rolling along. The bridge over the EU chasm needs to stay upright, otherwise it could get ugly. What's your criteria for pulling the safety cord? -20%? -50%? Never?
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Your thread is always a great read, Birch. Let's keep our eyes peeled for danger signs ahead. For now, it appears that the road has a few potholes, but the market keeps rolling along. The bridge over the EU chasm needs to stay upright, otherwise it could get ugly. What's your criteria for pulling the safety cord? -20%? -50%? Never?
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When the VIX gets to 15 which is soon If we keep going up.:D Soon the market wll lead us and the dollar will start rising with it. That's a Birchism.:)
 
When my oceanic account can be devalued to the tune of $1M in four weeks tells me I'm becoming a heavy player. I did some selling last fall but it was a default because of margin - otherwise I would have held everything and saved myself some taxes. I did buy everything back because there were very few wash sales. Had I held the way I wanted I'd be even better off today. Margin use can be dangerous but at the same time provides opportunity for leverage. Now is the time to leverage up because interest rates are low and going to stay that way for several more years - and I need the deduction to offset my dividend income.
 
Here is long-term rule #1 to keep in mind. We have a great amount of evidence suggesting that the A/D line will not top simultaneously with price. So the time to be on guard will be when the major market averages make new highs, but the A/D line falls short.
 
The mighty VIX just broke through into the 17 level at 17.95 off -1.25. The spring is coiled for the bears to bleed at any moment - the short covering should be fun to watch. Transports are heading toward positive territory and the ground is shaking because the bulls are going to crush the shorts. Snort.
 
When we get into the 14 level and been there several months it will then be time to watch the action of the A/D line. Until then relax. Energy is looking warm today and will probably continue to spike - hope that helps out my coal holdings.
 
The oceanic this week managed to gain back my give back from last week. I now have only 7 trading sessions available to reach my February goal of $400K - I need to take down $190K. Is it possible, well yes, but I wouldn't take the bet - we'll have to see what happens if we get a consolidation. Here is what happened this week: +$48K, -$37K, -$24K, +$90K, +$12K for a gain of +$89K. I'm now ahead +$210K for February but subject to a wipe out at any moment - or the current momentum continues. I'm looking forward to March and April for mucho gains. Stay tuned.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
He doesn't sweat...
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I do not personally know him, but based on posts about past experiences perhaps he is all sweated out?

He may sweat occasionally based on the current location but in the previous SW ME/SE NH location there is rarely a reason to sweat a lot.

Birchtree, I have enjoyed reading your posts over the years.

I am curious about two things.

Have you ever made a buy decision that made Mindy Lou arch up and spit/growl?

Is there a Dennis Birch society?;)

regards

PO
 
I've certainly made numerous bad purchase decisions over the years - but most of the time they end up being small blessings as write offs against profits. Mindylou is a much better boxer than that moron Cassius Clay ever was. Now if my coal holdings would rebound - I'll probably have to wait until the EPA is slain.
 
FWIW I drop by some of the railroad MBs occasionally and it appears there are some bottlenecks concerning coal shipments and BTW oil from the relatively new midwestern production.
 
Oneok Inc (OKE) has announced a two for one stock split - that should be worth another 10 points to the upside. I now have 31 dividend increase announcements so far this year - only another 200 more to go. I think it's time to party like it's 1999. April of 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 points - why not March 2012. What many mom and pop bond holders fail to realize is that the low returns in safe options will not be able to keep pace with inflation, reducing the purchasing power of their funds several years down the line. The stock market is setting up like a spring board right now and when 1370 goes the sky is blue.
 
"The euro's state today is very bullish for US stocks. The last time the euro was so low, and euro fears were so popluar, the euro soon surged in a couple massive uplegs that coincided with a major upleg in the US stock markets. During all of the previous post-panic euro uplegs, the SPX rallied sharply to achieve major new cyclical-bull high each time."

Euro's SPX Influence | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com
 
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