Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"Is it fair that after the first three years of Obamanomics, the poor are poorer, the poverty rate is rising, the middle class is losing income, and some 5.5 million fewer Americans have jobs today than in 2007?" Words from Stephen Moore.

 

[GUCHI]

Fwm
amen on the chart. That puts it in a full perspective rather than a partial isolated time frame.

 

[Birchtree]

FWIW my wife had a $46K gain in the last quarter of 2011 in her Florida Retirement System defined contribution plan - our expectation is that she'll do even better in the first quarter of 2012. A $100K year gain would be sweet and I think she'll do it easily this year. If this bullish momentum continues perhaps the gain will be superlative. Anyway, once money starts moving out of bonds hold on tight because the escape velocity from gravity will be awesome with its' angle of ascent. Snort.

 

[nasa1974]

Birch, Keep up the good work on the Bull news. With my retirement looming in the near future, I would like to pad my TSP some more.

 

[Birchtree]

"Markets risk train chugs along, overbought does not mean a correction is coming." Go tell it on the mountain.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33037.html

 

[Birchtree]

We dearly need a Dow +300 point breakout to set things straight for the bears - just the kind of a surprise to get some panic buying.

 

[tsptalk]

The market moves on fear and greed and a 300-point rally would put some fears in the bears, but you sound like you're getting a little greedy. Has this rally not been sufficiently positive enough for you?

 

[Fran1775]

The golden cross

What about the golden cross for the s&p 500. Past performance shows Large gains for maybe a year after this.

We should be looking good then, right?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: The golden cross

Greed is good and so is a golden cross -" the longterm supply/demand balance in the market favors the bull side of the market for the foreseable future." Today will most likely build slowly into a climax buying panic - make me money.

 

[jkenjohnson]

The market moves on fear and greed and a 300-point rally would put some fears in the bears, but you sound like you're getting a little greedy. Has this rally not been sufficiently positive enough for you?

He's looking for a Dow of 14,000.

 

[Birchtree]

So the mortgage deal unfairly impacts those who pay their bills. "Is it fair that those who took out responsible mortgages and pay them each month have to see their tax dollars used to subsidize those who acted recklessly, greedily, and sometimes deceitfully in taking out mortgages they now can't afford to repay." Let'em move back to their original public housing.

 

[Khotso]

Hey Birch, here's an article that made me think of you. I'll have to look into Phelps' book -- I do know a couple folks who made a lot of money on just one or two stocks.

[h=1]"The Secret To Incredible Returns From An Old Market Legend"[/h]Chris Mayer, for The Daily Reckoning |
[h=1]The Secret To Incredible Returns From An Old Market Legend
[/h]

 

[Birchtree]

Thanx for the good read - that's pretty much my approach. "One who buys right must stand still in order to run fast." I happen to own both CNQ and BAM. I really don't like to sell my precious wall flowers until they bloom into luscious roses. I was forced to let my TWIN go last year for a $60K profit while I was running from a margin call. But I've begun buying it back. I'm interested in building an income stream that I can grow with and spend. Ferdinand is going to make me wealthy. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to enjoy my train ride for today and plan to buy more wall flowers tomorrow to build my base. Remember, negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market. Historically, April is the best month of the year. April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 points - April 2012 will be the second time. Don Hays Advisory - the bull market is destined to continue strongly for many more years - can you believe that. And if there was ever a time to see a larger than average cyclical bull, it is after a once in a century stock panic.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

So the mortgage deal unfairly impacts those who pay their bills. "Is it fair that those who took out responsible mortgages and pay them each month have to see their tax dollars used to subsidize those who acted recklessly, greedily, and sometimes deceitfully in taking out mortgages they now can't afford to repay." Let'em move back to their original public housing.

... and the gubment is looking for ways to increase food stamp participation, as well as provide free cell phones if you don't have one.

Like it or not, we're gonna get more gubment assistance, because it's an election year!

Just MHO.

 

[Mapper]

... and the gubment is looking for ways to increase food stamp participation

The only way to increase "participation" is to reduce people's pay to below the assistance threshold level or cut their jobs...so by "gubment" you must be referring to those guys in the House who think we all get paid too much.

 

[Mapper]

So the mortgage deal unfairly impacts those who pay their bills. "Is it fair that those who took out responsible mortgages and pay them each month have to see their tax dollars used to subsidize those who acted recklessly, greedily, and sometimes deceitfully in taking out mortgages they now can't afford to repay." Let'em move back to their original public housing.

So we foreclose on folks and send them to public housing. Will that cost the "responsible" borrowers less in decreased home equity and taxes paid for "public housing"? It's a serious question. Clearly we have a problem...which approach will impact the fewest "responsible" people? As a non-home owner I'd love to see property values fall even further. Frankly I think housing is still inflated and still a crappy investment. I bet most "responsible" homeowners wouldn't agree with me.

 

[WorkFE]

It only stands to reason that those who own homes want them to be worth something and those that don't own homes want the prices to come down.
I'm dry and warm at night.

 

[Mapper]

I could own a home if I wanted to. At current prices I think it's a crappy investment. If I had bought a home when I was first able to afford one, I would have lost a lot of money. Renting is warm, dry, relatively maintenance free and just peachy to me right now.

Edit:
I rent a house that the owner is unable to sell because she paid too much for it 6 years ago during the height of the bubble. She's a very responsible person who works hard, pays her taxes and is a good neighbor.

 

[jpcavin]

I could own a home if I wanted to. At current prices I think it's a crappy investment. If I had bought a home when I was first able to afford one, I would have lost a lot of money. Renting is warm, dry, relatively maintenance free and just peachy to me right now.

I respect your decision and in fact, many others think like you. However, I've never been able to understand it. For one, there's the tax write off. Two, even if the home value decreased drastically, you would still own the home. JMHO