Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"We are presently in the third bullish market advance and economic expansion since 2009 as the stock market, economy, and credit markets are all in bullish harmony, not to mention central banks."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/stop-talking-and-start-listening

 

[Birchtree]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/339261-bank-of-america-breakout-or-breakdown

 

[mayday]

Birch I bet your in hog heaven. Are you dancing off the ceiling yet?

 

[SteelSaving]

Here is how the oceanic performed this week: -$32K, -$18K, +$72K, +$32K, +$105K for a sweet gain of +$159K. Slowly working my way back to the $2M mark. I may get there by the end of February if this current momentum lasts.

At $2M, you could live off $60K/year and reasonably expect to NEVER run out of money.

 

[Birchtree]

I would like to make $191K in the next 17 or 18 trading days for February. The question is can it be done without to much headwind. Pulling down a $400K month would be perfect. I'm optimistic that once we consolidate I can move forward - I'll be buying a few wall flowers today. I now have 20 dividend increase announcements so far this year with many more to go.

SteelSaving,

My goal for the year is to get past the $3M mark.

 

[Birchtree]

Analysts say they aren't yet seeing the kind of excessive investor optimism that can be a sign of more serious stock pullbacks to come. The Federal Reserve has committed itself to keeping interest rates low and hinted that it would resume spending tens of billions of dollars buying bonds if needed. I'm going to go buy me some stocks before they get even more expensive.

 

[Birchtree]

A few purchases to keep the machine in good working order: SD, GBX, MS, BXS, MTOR, TRW, FFG, FHN, KEY. It's a great time to be a permabull. I'm going to continue to buy all that I can going forward.

 

[Birchtree]

"The beginning stages of a real bull market generally don't give people the opportunity to position into a pullback. My entire point is that the conditions dictate that the probility of a surprising bull market are higher now than I believe the vast majority of investors estimate."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2012-a-repeat-of-03-and-09-2012-02-06

 

[SteelSaving]

SteelSaving,

My goal for the year is to get past the $3M mark.

Make that $90k/yr.

 

[MaStA]

Make that $90k/yr.

Heck I would be happy with making $1,000/yr with the amount I have invested (which is no where near the figures you all talk about). I'm still young though, but I will be maximizing my Roth IRA out and continuing to contribute a little bit to my TSP. Hopefully one day when I become more knowledgeable I can start investing in more single stocks and ETF's.

I'm waiting for a major correction before I add more to my Roth because when I started it last year I invested all $5,000 and literally the next day I lost a good chunk out of it. I have recovered it all and have made a little now, but it took a while.

 

[SteelSaving]

I'm talking retirement here. He could reasonably expect to pull that amount out every year and be reasonably assured he will never run out of money. Since very few people I know actually need to live on $90k/year, I figure even half that is pretty darn good not including a mortgage, his money would continue to grow while he lived off it.

 

[Birchtree]

http://ivanhoff.com/2012/02/02/there-are-3-stages-in-a-typical-bull-market/

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

BT, quick question. What will happen to your stance as the global economy continues to go down (it is down, continuing is the debate) and all those dividend paying companies decide to stop paying dividends?

I mean, I understand your investment position and goals, so don't take this wrong. It is a serious question. You are a PermaBull and I am sure at some point in the future the Dow will reach 17,000; just not sure when.

Does the bad economy not concern you?

 

[Birchtree]

Friend, the global economy is actually getting better according to the latest manufacturing data available. I've already had 20 dividend increase announcements so far this year - BP just increased their dividend by 14%. I'm not worried. The big picture is that the stock market is targeting a trend towards a new all time high sometime in 2012. We will break 14,200 and if we do, then 17000 is not that far away. I did some buying today to keep my animal spirits working: BAC, KBH, DSX. Who in their right mind wants to buy housing stocks - me. I've been building positions in them for several years.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

So you like housing stocks, eh BT???

How about this one...



You're welcome.

 

[Birchtree]

There are a lot of patterns that look like that - thanx for posting. What will it take to get mom and pop out of their slow, empty, bond positions. Waiting for confirmations leaves too much profit on the table.

 

[Birchtree]

"Success in investing comes from being able to see not what is in front of you but what is lurking just around the corner." Like a housing rebound.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33014.html

 

[Birchtree]

I didn't make any money in my oceanic today, but I did in my tugboat, finally. Now if FV doesn't take it away. I'm looking forward to watching "Justified" tonight. So a consolidation is happening intraday and that is healthy. Cramer is telling folks to dump bonds - so don't stand in the doorway, instead play on the tracks.

 

[Mcqlives]

If your 1352 (I had 1353 as a magic number) is broken what do you see in the near future for a consolidation point? 1370 or a nice run to the 1413 area?

 

[Birchtree]

I don't know if I even dare to speculate on a consolidation - I don't want my horns handed to me. But if we can take out 1370 then perhaps 1320 will hold the line on any give back. I would welcome a drop in bonds with some interest rate increase to send scared money into equities.