Birchtree's Account Talk

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I've been dignified holding myself back today - though I'm chomping on my bit. I've made 353 individual purchases into my base since October 3rd so today I'm catching my breath as the bull stampedes. There will be plenty of time to spill more dough.
 
The last hour could be wickedly fast as the early shorts move to cover - we're headed to Dow +400. With the R2K up 39+ my oceanic is hitting many targets.
 
Only 2000 more Dow points and we'll be at 14,200 the previous new all time high - that's only about 15% from today's close. I think we'll be there early 2012.
 
So Birch, do you think the 200SMA now acts as support? This is my hunch and hope. There may be some downside very soon but seems like the dips are being scooped up for now. Guess time will tell. :)
 
What dips - this market will show no mercy to those at the station - you want in you pay up. The October 2007 high on the SPX was 1565.15 - we should hit that target before year end in my opinion. Obummer is the only one making empty promises that betray the powerless.
 
Birchtree said:
What dips - this market will show no mercy to those at the station - you want in you pay up. The October 2007 high on the SPX was 1565.15 - we should hit that target before year end in my opinion. Obummer is the only one making empty promises that betray the powerless.
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Thank you, I feel better about buying today now. :)
 
I'm still inclined to listen to Altucher. Noting monetary policy works with a lag, Altucher believes QE2 hasn't yet hit the economy, but it will in the coming months. We may be seeing some of that QE2 with the current GDP at 2.5%. He is absolutely bullish on the economy and the stock market. He is upping the ante on his bullish call, predicting the Dow will hit 20,000 and the S&P will eclipse 2000 before the current rally runs its course. Stay tuned. Don't fear new highs, figuring they mark an end. They are more often new beginnings. So is QE3 in the future - sure sounds like the Fed is interested.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm still inclined to listen to Altucher. Noting monetary policy works with a lag, Altucher believes QE2 hasn't yet hit the economy, but it will in the coming months. We may be seeing some of that QE2 with the current GDP at 2.5%. He is absolutely bullish on the economy and the stock market. He is upping the ante on his bullish call, predicting the Dow will hit 20,000 and the S&P will eclipse 2000 before the current rally runs its course. Stay tuned. Don't fear new highs, figuring they mark an end. They are more often new beginnings. So is QE3 in the future - sure sounds like the Fed is interested.
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The economy will continue to be sluggish as long as unemployment is high, no ifs and buts about it, and I would not discount a bubble bursting in China along with a slowdown in Europe to derail the entire world economy. Italian bonds broke 6% and Ireland has cut down their GDP forecasts, they're looking at a similar handout. So there's a lot of uncertainty still in the air and it's not smooth sailing from here. I agree that the markets are going to move higher, the central banks are printing money and that will have a positive effect on most asset classes. I tend to think there will be one more "engineered" downturn in the next week or two, and then it'll be off to the races for a couple of months into the new year. I just think there's so much sovereign debt and uncertainty out there to paint a rosy picture forward.
 
I'm reminded that bull markets are usually assassinated by tight monetary policy. No new rate hike cycle is going to be getting under way anytime soon. The next inverted yield curve is probably a while away. 90% of stocks now above their 50 day moving averages.
 
I posted last week that I thought there was a $300K week in my future - right now I'm holding at $298K - only need $2K more before the close. Or will I have to wait for another time. Occupy Wall Street types say the rich get richer because they continue to do things that make them rich.
 
The VIX at 24.86 - 0.60 is a positive vibe for Monday. When it drops below the 15 level it will be time to really worry. I think we were there in April before the market sell off. That will be my lesson for the future.
 
There does come a time when prudence is the better part of valor - I thought I had sufficient buffer to hold back the tide but learned otherwise. I was forced into considerable selling and now I'm rebuilding the portfolio. If I hadn't bought the turkey correction all the way down hurting myself even more, I probably would have remained safe. But margin really is the way to fly. We'll see what happens next summer.
 
From 8/5 through yesterday I've made 860 individual stock purchases probing the correction bottom - some of those purchases hurt my position but at the same time I've gotten some very lucrative pricing. The majority of my selling was profitable because I got in so early in 2009 - now I'll be responsible for taxes. This week was a good week for my oceanic account as well as my TSP account. This is what happened with the oceanic: +$117K, -$103K, +$70K, +$200K, +$19K for a grand total of +$303K. I look forward to doing that again. If this is in fact a recovery as opposed to a bull trap, the market should be able to hold most of its recent gains - that was today.
 
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