Birchtree's Account Talk

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Birch,
You have probably addressed this, but do you use some type of system to track all your purchases and sells?

Thanks
Seth
 
I don't use any systems only pencil and paper. My broker provides a monthly statement with all my transactions and dividend reinvestments. I try to keep things as simple as possible. I'm pushing big money around and it takes money to make money. I have my buy list and I'm ready with my dimes to purchase my wall flowers - the buys I made today will help me if we rally tomorrow. Remember, I'm using margin leverage. Margin allows me to benefit from unrealized gains without selling my positions. When the margin call arrives it's time to back up - which I was doing awhile back. Now I'm replenishing my account with the same stocks I sold previously. Buying back my income producers. If this rally doesn't fold I'm going to keep dollar cost averaging my way back home.
 
I'll mention that one of my goals is to be $4M in debt with an $8M long market value. My interest charge is 2.75% which is tax deductable and helps reduce my tax basis on my dividend income as well as capital gains. Margin provides access to multi-hundreds of thousands of $. And the more I make the more I can make but it requires a certain discipline. Now is the time to be leveraged up and not deleveraging like everyone else. You would be surprised how fast gains can build in a bull market. Most folks are waiting for a massive climactic sell off like we had in Feb/Mar. '09 - but I'm not waiting.
 
I think today I will run the rails and stay in front of the Grand Trunk and buy some serious happiness. The market slump we just experienced has pushed the S&P 500 to its lowest multiple since March 2009, when the bull market started. The odds still remain in favor of cyclical bull continuation. The Bear case is crowded, the Bull case is not. Upside potential now substantially outweighs the downside risk. So I'll be adding to my risk curve. I have to buy now while my wall flowers are golden if I want to be able to levitate to the $3M level. I'm reminded that rallies off of steep bull corrections can be wickedly fast - so chase the bulls.
 
I'm wading in gently keeping a look out for Gentle Ben and buying some precious wall flowers: CLF, GPC, BTH, HEI, FE, IT, LTD, OKE, OLN.
 
Still buying while the sun shines - everyone will be watching the close. Hearing a little more noise about a possible QE3 - I say bring it. The S&P 500 is the cheapest since 1957 when it was 13.7 times forecast earnings. Today's equities trade at 10.2 times 2012 forecast earnings - gimme more: S, BAS, ELN, HRS, TKR, CTL, AE, CNX, DRC, SXI. Get out the old zippo and set this bull on fire. Snort.
 
I'm wondering if this little sell off is a bear trap pulling in more greedy shorts before the next capitation? I'd like to see that happen again. Small caps are under the most pressure - but volatility can change that in a blink. I'll simply sit tight until the sun returns.
 
Now after my bannishment I realize that the term "pinky" is not politically correct for POTUS. Live and learn. But dumbo is ok. "Pinky" actually means borderline communist. Dumbo had big ears. I'm looking forward to spending some money today.

"Oversold markets are very bullish. While buying stocks when no one else wants to is very challenging psychologically, the huge rewards are well worth the pain. And now oversoldness is back. The SPX hasn't been this oversold since early 2009's brutal secondary stock-panic lows. Big fear spikes soon after major tops are a signature bull market correction behavior."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/22836/hyper-oversold-markets
 
Am I buying the top - does it really matter. I've now done 117 purchases for October - gotta keep up the momentum: DRC, SXI, KWR, NBR, WAB, KEX, CMC, BAM, KMT, ACI, CBI. Staying in front of the Grand Trunk all day.
 
I'm nervously still seeking happines buying my wall flowers and adding to my base: CE, TWIN, TRW, RES, LNN, AME, ALB. More woek to do for sure.
 
Rebuilding my base for the next bullish stampede: SWK, MS, AKS, BTU, PXP, DOW, MLI, MTW. I figure the more I have in the more I will eventually win.
 
There must be a Native American somewhere protesting Columbus. Anyway the bull continues and so does my buying: GPC, BTH, IT, HEI, TKR, SXI, SPN, ENH, STD, BBT, FOE, BBG. Will the rally hold - my bet is it will get up over 300 points on the Dow before the close. "Better earnings and record profits in some recent quarters have helped fill the coffers of nonfinancial companies with what the Federal Reserve said was $2.05 trillion in cash and other liquid assets as of the end of June, the most since 1963."
 
I've been greedy today and hope to be even more greedy tomorrow. Recently bought: EP, KWR, AGCO, F. Greed is good.
 
Birchtree said:
There must be a Native American somewhere protesting Columbus. Anyway the bull continues and so does my buying: GPC, BTH, IT, HEI, TKR, SXI, SPN, ENH, STD, BBT, FOE, BBG. Will the rally hold - my bet is it will get up over 300 points on the Dow before the close. "Better earnings and record profits in some recent quarters have helped fill the coffers of nonfinancial companies with what the Federal Reserve said was $2.05 trillion in cash and other liquid assets as of the end of June, the most since 1963."
Click to expand...
I'm not protesting anything.....progress is progress....Please buy away!
 
Siegel says that valuations are setting the market up for a strong 3 to 5 years. If this rally is for real it won't be long before nirvana arrives. The latest weekly data for rail traffic showed 4.4% jump in total intermodal traffic and a 4.7% increase in carloads. No recession yet - now if coal loadings pick up the money gains will flow. I figure that if I can blow through $200K a week I'd spend $1M in how many weeks? Riding the V cycle higher. I've currently made 656 trades on the buy side since August 5th probing for the bottom and now I'll track looking for the next top. We could easily be setting up for a multi-month rally. Don't miss it.
 
Nah, nah, nah - getting banned at my age is a right of passage. I'll just be more subtle with my approach.
 
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