Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"Overall, 2011 and 2012 earnings estimates barely changed."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/292815-dig-in-to-the-dow-for-20-to-30-potential-return

"Corporate profits have been nothing short of spectacular in recent years, now exceeding all prior records."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/292755-inventory-and-other-recoveries

 

[Birchtree]

"Valuations that are the lowest since prior to the great bull market in August 1982." And how I remember that time period well. It was ten months of a pure rocket ride.

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/09/08/dreman-look-past-the-fear-nows-the-time-to-buy/

 

[Birchtree]

Check the 1982 bull move - I was there waiting and ready, just like I am now.

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2011/09/puzzling-over-bonds.html

 

[Geaux4it]

It looks to me as though we held our current channel lower trend lines for today - Monday could be pivotal. If there is any positive spark from Europe this compressed market will explode upward - I'll be watching all weekend. In my opinion the greater risk is still being out of the market rather than being in.

G7 Finance Chiefs To Support European Banks

http://www.secaucusnewjersey.org/g7...ort-banks-for-european-debt-crisis-10300.html

 

[Dutchy]

G7 Finance Chiefs To Support European Banks

http://www.secaucusnewjersey.org/g7...ort-banks-for-european-debt-crisis-10300.html

Thanks for posting Geux.. This article gives me a little hope for Monday and the rest of the week!

 

[Geaux4it]

Thanks for posting Geux.. This article gives me a little hope for Monday and the rest of the week!

Wishful thinking I suppose as Futures are down ~2% this morning.

Michael Purves of BGC Financial was just on Bloomberg. He said we should get support at the 1120 level. If we blast through that however, he said next key hard support is 1010. Absent complete collapse in Greece, he does not see the market tanking below that level.

Steady as she goes....

 

[Happy_Trails]

Wishful thinking I suppose as Futures are down ~2% this morning.

Michael Purves of BGC Financial was just on Bloomberg. He said we should get support at the 1120 level. If we blast through that however, he said next key hard support is 1010. Absent complete collapse in Greece, he does not see the market tanking below that level.

Steady as she goes....

Well, I think all of us who are in are trying to find something positive. Complete collapse of Greece sounds like it may happen any day, at least if you listen to CNBC.

 

[jpcavin]

Well, I think all of us who are in are trying to find something positive. Complete collapse of Greece sounds like it may happen any day, at least if you listen to CNBC.

Last I heard Greece has three days to go unless someone bails them out.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm back to doing some early buying: BCS, MTG, GB, CMC, CBG, BLT, FIS, CE, JCI, B. If we do indeed rally during the last quarter I'll make some good money holding my base intact and I'll add as much coin as I'm able. The more we rally the more I'll buy, locking in my gains behind me.

 

[Birchtree]

Still chipping away at my wall flower buying power: RES, TWIN, CLF, ASH, LUB, FAF. If the SPX can close eventually above 1190, confirmed by the Dow closing over 11,350 and the NASDAQ closing over 2525 we should see buying pressure gain steam. In the last couple of weeks we've had a couple of days that are some of the most oversold in the last 50 years. That's typically how corrections end, not how bear markets start. We are not in a bear market, yet. The advance/decline line hit a new high in July, weeks after the market peak of April 29-May 2. There's not a single market top in the past 70 years where breadth kept going up after supposedly a bull market peak - believe it or not. These thoughts have been previously posted in my thread.

 

[TSPNotley]

Please give your opinion of the following:

Investipedia Defines: Bear Market as a fall of 20% over at least 2 months in broad indexes.[ A helpful cross, but not part of the definition, is when the moving averages have the 50 cross under the 200 day at ~8/15/11 using SMA.]

The S&P 500 [C fund] has fallen 20% over 3 months from 5/2/11 through 8/9/11; and of those same dates, the DWCP [S fund] has fallen 24.8%. By the strict definition, we are now in a Bear Market for the past 3+ weeks.

 

[Birchtree]

A 20% decline in the SPX from its April high would take it to 1091. The low was 1101 so far. High velocity selloffs like we saw in early August 2011 are not seen early in bear markets. We will see a bear market eventually but not for several years yet. When the treasury 10 year yields 5% we'll be in a bear market - the bull will be assassinated by the Fed.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Birchtree,

Do you own any Morgan Stanley or just BAC? If yes, what did you buy MS at?

 

[Birchtree]

I don't own any MS yet but the year isn't over either. I do own about 45 other financial type stocks though. I'm trying to buy happiness since I already have love.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-stocks-pay-your-mortgage-2011-09-14 I think it's time to go pick a few wall flowers now that we have another tail (5) in place.

 

[Birchtree]

Chasing Ferdinand again on these lows: GWR, HXL, KEG, GGC, ANN, DRC, CSX, RDC, ABB, BBG, ACI, SD. I'll tell you that this morning I was looking at $186K available from margin for wall flower buying power. But a 400 point drop could easily take it all away, so caution is the word as I buy my way into happiness.

 

[WorkFE]

After the mortgage was paid I did this to pay for our 34' Sea Breeze. Sweeeet.

 

[Birchtree]

Staying with my strategy the more we rally the more I buy - added a few new ones today such as MOS, LNN. More wall flowers: CE, CLF, TWIN, JCI, BTU, AEE, AES, AIT, BGG, BAS, CNH. I've made 398 purchases since 8/5/11 - so I will rest for an hour and watch the market. If we can get up to +200 I'll have no choice but to follow my buying strategy.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Staying with my strategy the more we rally the more I buy - added a few new ones today such as MOS, LNN. More wall flowers: CE, CLF, TWIN, JCI, BTU, AEE, AES, AIT, BGG, BAS, CNH. I've made 398 purchases since 8/5/11 - so I will rest for an hour and watch the market. If we can get up to +200 I'll have no choice but to follow my buying strategy.

That sounds like a very very diversified portfolio :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

I was going to wait for a +200 Dow but money is burning a hole in my pocket. Having flower buying power is the potential to get greedy and I am greedy: BMY, TRW, EP, BDC, WGO, DOW, ELN, EXP, CBI, AIN. Now I will rest until 1500 hours. And if it's still hot I'm back in to throw more dollars into the bottom - this is I believe a bull market correction and nothing more. If I'm right dollars will rack up like playing a pin ball machine.