Birchtree's Account Talk

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I still have four lamb chop stocks sitting on ice and hope I can avoid having to use them - they've actually gained value this week but so have the five I previously sold. In 2010 ending 7/31/10 I had made 948 individual DCA purchases in 12 months - in 2011 ending 7/29/11 I made 628 flower purchases. Starting 8/5/11 for the next 12 months I'd like to make 1000 purchases - 150 of those will be commission free and the rest I'll have to pay up for - but it's small sacrifice I'm willing to make building income into my base. Someday I'll have to thank my buddy Evinrude for this correction.
 
The next 5 months will offer me 150 free trades - but in the next 12 months I'll get 360 free trades - just in case that wasn't clear. I'll save around $1782 and all I had to do was put up $25K on the banking side which is not earning any money. I know I'll be buying a truck load of wall flowers because this bull is not over yet - I won't get concerned until the VIX drops below the 14 level again.

"Sadly, the great majority of investors and speculators haven't trained themselves to fight the crowd. Instead of buying low in extreme fear, they sell low. Then they stay out until long after the markets have rallied dramatically, only belatedly returning to buy high. It is only the contrarians, the wise minority, that have hardened and steeled themselves to trade fear rationally, that buy low, sell high, and earn fortunes. Fear should be aggressively bought, never sold. The second correction of this bull, a 17.9% SPX decline over 14 weeks that's roughly the same magnitude as summer 2010's 16% over 10 weeks."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/22140/trading-stock-fear-2
 
I have 5 dividends due into my account on Monday - just another way to dollar cost average. I predict that by the end of this year my dividends will produce a stable income of $100K - that will go a long way to make mortgage payments on my lake place. And that income will increase as companies increase their dividend payouts. Dividend reinvestments are really the way to go. Now if they would just reduce that 15% qualified dividend tax for a year or so the economy would zoom.
 
Birchtree said:
The next 5 months will offer me 150 free trades - but in the next 12 months I'll get 360 free trades - just in case that wasn't clear. I'll save around $1782 and all I had to do was put up $25K on the banking side which is not earning any money. I know I'll be buying a truck load of wall flowers because this bull is not over yet - I won't get concerned until the VIX drops below the 14 level again.

"Sadly, the great majority of investors and speculators haven't trained themselves to fight the crowd. Instead of buying low in extreme fear, they sell low. Then they stay out until long after the markets have rallied dramatically, only belatedly returning to buy high. It is only the contrarians, the wise minority, that have hardened and steeled themselves to trade fear rationally, that buy low, sell high, and earn fortunes. Fear should be aggressively bought, never sold. The second correction of this bull, a 17.9% SPX decline over 14 weeks that's roughly the same magnitude as summer 2010's 16% over 10 weeks."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/22140/trading-stock-fear-2
Click to expand...


Great post Birch! And a very important reminder to buy where others are fearful! It's taken me years to embrace this and you have to learn to contain your emotions. I'm determined to make great returns off this downturn. I missed most of 2009 and 2010 bounces. My nerves were seriously tested these last 10 days but I held on and will continue to. We'll be rewarded in the end!
 
Hello Birchtree, thanks for the two good links. I provided three links about S&P and France not happening in Swimming Pools in the Lounge/Misc. you may want to check out. Just got a Sprint picture mail from the older daughter showing an outfit for a newborn that she just bought, it's cute, has the Gators emblem in upper part. Go Gators! In her fifth month.

I sometimes visit pragcap.com, ritholtz.com, zerohedge.com, often safehaven.com, seekingalpha.com, now and then decisionpoint.com, which Tom uses. With some tentativeness I visit Tony Caldaro "elliott wave lives". I visit with some curiosity Cobra's Market View, but do not take much interest in the finer details that some of these elliotticians seem to be trying to divine from the entrails, including, for example, Daneric's. I place weight on Michael Kahn in Barron's and his colleague Michael Santoli, also Michael Ashbaugh on MarketWatch. The columns in MarketWatch.com have some value. As for cnbc.com, comme ci, comme c,a. Yes and no. greenfaucet.com is of some use, maybe especially Kathy Lien on forex, also there is Daily Forex on finance.yahoo.com thru EUR/USD. There is one last one that I find useful, in that it selects from others: finance.yahoo.com In that ETF guide Simon Maierhofer seems to make some sense. As for Breakout Jeff Macke and Nesto, it's screwball filler as often as useful. as for Ticker with Aaron Task and the guy from clusterstock.com (Henry Blodgett) they sometimes have something useful. Th last CNBC.com interview is of value, I think: Talking Numbers: S&P Support Levels.

As for whooshing JTH, that is a tall goal. I have that goal too . . .later. For now, the goal is to recupe.
 
Last edited:
polarbear,

If you post an article you can be sure I'll read it. Thanks for your participation. I'm anticipating picking up some more wall flowers today - gotta keep the money moving.
 
My Motorola Mobility (MMI) is being bought out by Google +$14 - only wish I had 5,000 shares. Well I'll take what I can get. Today is shaping up to be positive.
 
Running with the bulls and buying wall flowers when I get time to stop and smell them: WEN, BTU, CTL, CLC, WAB, RJF, SYY, AXS, ENH, NBR. It's going to be another busy day of strategic buying - getting them cheap in my opinion. Many of my small caps are so undervalued.
 
Riding on the Grand Trunk today and enjoying the view as I continue to shop for those precious wall flowers with free trades: BAS, SHS, AEO, GWR, WMB, APU, BGG, BLX, NX, AES. If the market stays positive back up +150 on the Dow, I'll be ready to throw more money into the pasture where the bulls are running. Snort.
 
I jumped the gun because of my greed factor and besides my flower buying power is burning a hole in my pocket - just flushed my 30 free trades buying: SIG, T, BP, UBS, ASH, ADC, GE, ANR, STO, MAS. My next 10 purchases will cost me $49.50 - that is so cheap.
 
Alrighty now, I feel like a head banger going after these wall flowers, but the more the better: EP, HNZ, SD, MDP, MWV, STL, BPO, DCIX, EXM, BDC. You simply have to be in to win. I'm going to rest for 30 minutes and then perhaps make another charge into the wilderness of the market.
 
If we get a last hour rush to Dow +200 I'll be in good shape for tomorrow. I'm not going to worry about any bottom retest in case it never arrives. Keep on buying into my base is all I'm interested in doing.
 
Well Rochester we did get a pop to Dow +200 so a few more cookies into the base and then I'm done until tomorrow: HAL, BHI, VHI, MDR, HRL, FLO. What a nice day to be long. I stand corrected - Icahn made $473M on the MMI deal.
 
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